Carter Price

Opinion | Would You Let Claude Do Your Taxes? Preparing a return is the kind of task AI ought to be good for.

Today’s large language models—ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok—can write code and polish prose. But would you trust them to do your taxes?

RAND's @carterprice.bsky.social discusses in @wsj.com.

When do you think you'll be comfortable with ChatGPT, Claude, or one of the others AI platforms doing your taxes?

Federal Revenue When AI Replaces Labor This study describes how federal revenue could be affected by labor-replacing artificial intelligence (AI) and explores possible policy responses. AI could disrupt the tax base if the labor force shri...

This builds on some @rand.org work that I have with Akshaya Suresh about disruptions from labor replacing AI:
www.rand.org/pubs/working...

We’re not there yet, but the pace of progress suggests we could be within a year or two. Now is the time for workers, businesses, and policymakers to start preparing for these changes.

It’s not just individual workers who should be concerned—companies like H&R Block and Intuit, and many others whose business relies on managing paperwork, could be disrupted as AI advances.

In my piece, I propose a simple test: Would you trust #AI to do your taxes?
This requires both accuracy and trust. When AI can reliably read instructions, extract information from your documents, and complete the tax forms, it will be capable of automating a wide range of jobs.

There’s a lot of anxiety about AI replacing jobs, but today’s #AI tools aren’t quite ready to fully **replace** many humans in the workplace. Today's AI systems still require significant supervision, but the gap is closing fast.

Opinion | Would You Let Claude Do Your Taxes? Preparing a return is the kind of task AI ought to be good for.

My commentary on #AI in today's @wsj.com:
www.wsj.com/opinion/woul...

The RAND Budget Model RAND is developing a series of tools to help policymakers and the public understand how much can change with every line in the budget. We’re not just examining the costs of federal policy decisions. W...

7/ And learn more about the RAND Budget Model here: www.rand.org/education-em...

Drawing on History: Strategies for Reducing the Federal Debt With U.S. debt projected to reach 156% of GDP by 2055, researchers use the RAND Budget Model to examine how the U.S. reduced debt after WWII and model options for addressing today’s challenges. Findin...

6/ There's much more to explore in our report, which is free to download: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

5/ If we stay on the current path, more of our tax dollars will go to foreign countries than towards keeping Americans safe, responding to disasters, and delivering on all other national priorities.

➡️The bottom line: We tackled our debt burden in the past, and we can do it again.

4/ It will also require policymakers to build durable plans so that we can stay on track over the long time. Imagine a 30-year plan where policymakers came to a consensus on a general path to get to a fiscally sustainable place and a healthy economy.

3/ This study provides an achievable benchmark for fiscal policy in the future.

But the specific tradeoffs require policymakers to make tough choices. They will need to think beyond the ten-year planning window Congress currently uses to estimate impacts of legislation.

Drawing on History: Strategies for Reducing the Federal Debt With U.S. debt projected to reach 156% of GDP by 2055, researchers use the RAND Budget Model to examine how the U.S. reduced debt after WWII and model options for addressing today’s challenges. Findin...

2/ My colleagues Vegard Nygaard, Akshaya Suresh and I examined the last 80 years of federal debt, including how the US:
🔹reduced the debt burden from WWII over 30 years
🔹piled on debt over the next 50 years
🔹can reduce this burden over the next 30 years
www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

1/ In September, the federal debt hit $30 trillion. That's over 100% of GDP—higher than at any point since WWII.

How did we get here? And what might help the U.S. reduce the debt burden to a manageable level?

Our new @rand.org report explores…🧵