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Election Predictor and Political Commentary

@electionpredictor.bsky.social

Election predictions and political commentary

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You can view the forecast vote percentages for each party in each constituency here: blush-chrysa-58.tiiny.site/30012026.csv

30.01.2026 11:50 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The forecast used the weighted average polling of published opinion polls conducted over the past 7 days (between 23rd January and 11:27 this morning) for GB polling, and the latest published poll available for Scotland and Wales.

30.01.2026 11:50 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Polling inputs for the regression model

England (uses GB polls):
Con 18.7%
Lab 21.0%
Lib Dem 13.4%
Grn 15.6%
Ref 28.6%
Others 2.7%

Wales:
Con 12%
Lab 13%
Lib Dem 6%
Grn 12%
Plaid 29%
Ref 25%
Others 2%

Scotland:
Con 11%
Lab 17%
Lib Dem 9%
Grn 7%
SNP 32%
Ref 21%
Others 2%

30.01.2026 11:50 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Post image

GE2029 forecast as at 30/01/2026 @ 11:27am

Reform 324 (+319)
Labour 94 (-317)
Lib Dem 82 (+10)
SNP 44 (+35)
Conservative 40 (-81)
Green 29 (+25)
Plaid Cymru 10 (+6)
Others 8 (+3)
Speaker 1
NI 18

Reform short of majority by 2

Chgs. w/ GE2024

#Conservative #Labour #ReformUK #LibDem #Green #SNP #PC

30.01.2026 11:50 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

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