David Wiczer

On several levels, same energy in these two posts:
bsky.app/profile/did:...

The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case

Unemployment insurance raises workers' bargaining power and wages, new research from @davidwiczer.bsky.social @atlantafed.org & co-authors.
#EconSky
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

Debt, Stimulus & Household Cash Transfers If most households use stimulus checks to repay debt, what does that mean for how we design economic policy?

Households often use stimulus checks to repay their debt. How does this affect the effectiveness and design of fiscal policy?

Check out the @FacultiNet video where we discuss our joint work with Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher.bsky.social, and @davidwiczer.bsky.social

faculti.net/debt-stimulu...

It raises the idea that competitive pressure will dictate how much tariffs pass through to prices and, forebodingly, even firms who don't get a cost shock could see other firms' cost shock as cover to raise their own prices.

Will Tariffs Touch Off an Inflationary Impulse? Business Execs Think So. This Policy Hub paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential inflationary impact and how it could spill over beyond those firms directly affected.

A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed
colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...

nvm

I'm dealing with medical studies right now and it's incredible how little care they show about biased/selected samples.
Ugh, I know it's cliche for an economist to complain about this in medical stats... I also think the music of my youth was better 😉

To be clear, yields have been rising but so below where they should be given tightness.

Ahhh, that's was a typo. Meant vacancy yields. And they've been riding but so below where they should be given tightness.

The question here is how to read different sources. I think that JOLTS are tricky now because vacancy yields are so low. It can inflate the stock, and we saw that... Fewer hires than would've been expected from this tightness ever since the end of the pandemic.

And we're not even getting into how one should estimate r* or u* .

Thinking the same thing, I had unfollowed 20 seconds ago. I may have put down some BTC puts before doing so.

I see what you're saying with the relative price effect, but with imperfect competition it doesn't seem neutral to the overall price level. Like, they're essentially creating market power for some firms which should create a one time increase in prices, no?

‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments (Forthcoming Article) - We study the consumption response to unexpected transitory income gains of different size, using hypothetical questions from the Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth. ...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "‘Less is More’: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments" by Michele Andreolli and Paolo Surico. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Hahaha, sorry Carlos! I definitely know it's true. This was my attempt at a reference to past Internet humor. And I actually just mean this is so huge that it's hard to believe it's true.

Huge if true!

Why's it matter? We don't have a balanced budget anyway, and they're certainly minuscule relative to other tax sources. If you wanted to pay HH a consumption subsidy to offset the effect, we could do that regardless of the tax revenue.

I know, none of these hills are that great, eh?
But I hear you: so instead of price-elasticity consumer substituion, it's more important to look at production substituion or intermediate input/ capital. I'm good with that.

I mean, the easy example is that in his logic, the oil shocks wouldn't have been inflationary.

Wait, so this is definitely a "me and not my employer" moment: but seems like he's making a comment that's either true or false depending on whether we mean CPI or PCE deflator and (for the later) what's the substituion pattern look like. He needs households to have another perfect substitute.

Trump’s Best Hope for Peace Is to Support Ukraine | by Tatyana Deryugina, et al - Project Syndicate Tatyana Deryugina, et al warn that trying to appease Putin could cast the American president-elect as a modern-day Neville Chamberlain.

My recent op-ed in Project Syndicate (with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and others) lays out some arguments for why Trump should support a victory in Ukraine.

Check it out. Key points summarized below.

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

Haha. True

Pete Buttigieg told Democrats to not allow themselves to be so outraged by the Trump administration that they would neglect working for their constituents. “We cannot be mesmerized by the worst things that we see happening,” Buttigieg said. nyti.ms/3ZiKILz

I love this: tariffs are expected to have an even bigger final goods price effect because of their effects on intermediate input prices...this'll be interesting learning where the market power is, i.e. who passes what through

Guilty admission: I feel like RFK actually might do some useful stuff... probably because the state of public health is so bad there's definitely stuff to improve 😜

Authenticating your Bluesky identity involves a custom domain. Given that your RePEc account is authenticated, you can also do it by having your Bluesky handle listed on your RePEc profile. Not perfect, but it works among economists.

authors.repec.org

#EconSky #RePEc

You can now list your Bluesky account in your RePEc profile, like you already could for Mastodon and Twitter. Log in at the RePEc Author Service, click on "contacts", enter it and save. It will be listed on your profile at IDEAS after the next nightly refresh.

authors.repec.org

#econsky #RePEc

Interestingly, many of these had fallen considerably below their pre-pandemic trend but then were ``catching up'' and growing more quickly in the process. Some real fireworks from Pat estimating these trends too.

Industry-Level Sources for Solid US Employment Growth: Running on Empty or More Room to Run? This Policy Hub paper examines the recent US labor market, finding that three key sectors are primarily driving ongoing solid growth.

Fun little Policy Hub piece from Pat Higgins, Melinda Pitts, and me (doi.org/10.29338/ph2...). The basic point was to highlight how concentrated among a few industries was employment growth in the past bit.