Jochem Vanagt

💡 Edwin Jans, @rensvliegenthart.bsky.social, @skruikemeier.bsky.social en ik schreven een opiniestuk over polarisatie in Nederland, vandaag in @parool.nl 👇📰

How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core How group appeals shape candidate support: The role of group membership, identity strength, and deservingness perceptions

🆕 Deservingness perceptions & candidate support 👥

#GroupAppeals help connect #VoterIdentity 🧩 to voting choices 🗳️ – @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Rune Stubager & Mads Thau want to know if this appeals to other social groups 📣

📖 #OA

Really excited that after several years of working on it, revising, and getting lots of rejections, our paper (w/ Rune Stubager & Mads Thau) on citizens’ responses to group appeals is *finally* out @ejprjournal.bsky.social

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

A 🧵 on our findings...

Politicians don’t just care how many people hold an opinion — they care how good that opinion is. In our new (open-access) article in West European Politics, based on survey data from 900+ politicians across 11 countries, we show: quality > quantity. Read more: doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Thank you for the kind words!

Thank you Daan!

Thank you!

Partisan affect and political tolerance in the context of shifting norms: the effect of coalition signals towards the radical right Mainstream political actors in many countries face the challenging decision of how to engage with radical-right parties. While some systematically exclude them from power, others accept them as coa...

Full open-access article + replication files:
🔗 doi.org/10.1080/1350...
OSF: doi.org/10.17605/osf...

Finally: even in places with a strong cordon sanitaire, coalition signals still mattered. Elite-led boundaries against the radical right seem to erode (very) quickly. Indeed, we find evidence that among the mainstream in 🇩🇪🇧🇪 (strong cordon sanitaire), attitudes are not that different from 🇪🇸🇦🇹.

So, potential inclusion of the radical right does not reduce polarization overall, but is a double-edged sword: while it decreases the affective gap between the mainstream right & radical right, it deepens the rift between the mainstream left and mainstream right.

Key findings:
✔️ Center-right supporters become 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙩 and 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the radical right.
✔️ Radical-right supporters become 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right.
❗ But: center-left supporters also seem to grow 𝙢𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙚 toward the center right!

All over Europe, mainstream parties face a dilemma: exclude the radical right or cooperate with them. Using pre-registered survey experiments in 🇩🇪🇧🇪🇪🇸🇦🇹 (N = 5,594), we examine the effect of coalition signals from the center right to the radical right on affective polarization and political tolerance.

🚨 New publication out @jeppjournal.bsky.social w/ Katrin Praprotnik @luanarusso.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social

We show that coalition signals from the mainstream right to the radical right shift, rather than reduce, existing political divisions.

Open-access article: doi.org/10.1080/1350...

Happy to see that my paper w\ @jochemvanagt.bsky.social now has issue- and page-numbers.

Also check-out our post @ecprtheloop.bsky.social to learn more about why unsuccessful coalitions - like those that we see across the EU right now - do not mitigate polarization!
theloop.ecpr.eu/coalition-go...

United in success, fragmented in failure: The moderating effect of perceived government performance on affective polarization between coalition partners JOCHEM VANAGT, MARKUS KOLLBERG

📘 64.4

✅ Coalition governments reduce affective #polarization when perceived as successful; ❌ when seen as failing, they increase polarization says @jochemvanagt.bsky.social & @markuskollberg.bsky.social

#OA #PoliSky

🔗

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

What do citizens imagine their political opponents to be like? Polarization is real, but it also lives in our heads, fueled by stereotypes. We asked people in 🇧🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇵🇱 to describe opponents in their own words.

With @jnareal.bsky.social, @markuswagner.bsky.social & @piotrmarczynski.bsky.social 👇

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

Returning from vacation and looking for a late summer read? @ivobantel.bsky.social and I got you covered!

In our new @wepsocial.bsky.social paper, we assess how mainstream parties rhetorically create an affect-based "common front" against the radical right.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

We have a new paper out in @jepsjournal.bsky.social, with @laiabalcells.bsky.social, @sergisme.bsky.social and Ethan vanderWilden.

We test a number of experimental treatments aimed at strengthening social norms against radical-right support, but find mostly null results.

1/3

Abstract of the article "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by Joep van Lit and Maurits Meijers. Published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 1, displaying the experimental block in the survey.

Figure 3, displaying the point estimates and 95% confidence intervals from OLS regressions on three different models.

Figure 4, displaying the marginal means with 95% confidence intervals of the effects of different types of democratic defence.

Online first: "Defending democracy: investigating the efficacy of elite democratic defence in a competitive information environment" by @jmvanlit.bsky.social & @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...

#Academicsky #Polisky

Political Trust and Electoral Behavior Among 16- and 17-Year-Old First-Time-Voters in Belgium Abstract. Citizens’ electoral behaviors tend to persist over time and are driven by long-standing political attitudes acquired during the formative years o

📢 New publication: we draw on unique data from 16- and 17-year-old Belgian adolescents who were eligible to vote in the 2024 European elections, and show that low trust in order and representative institutions is linked to protest and radical voting. @dieterstiers.bsky.social @annakern.bsky.social

🚨Preprint alert🚨

How does affective polarization change democracy? Lots of pubs study how AP affects trust, democratic norms, inter-partisan attitudes, and participation.

We (w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social) examine a vital assumption this research seems to rely on:
1/6🧵

🧵 Hiring 2 PhDs in political science!

Join my ERC project DEMO-LIES
@uantwerpen.be
🇧🇪
We study how politicians accuse each other of lying/disinfo — and how citizens react: Does it erode trust? Polarize? Mobilize? 🧠🗳️

💥 4-yr fully funded
📅 Start: Oct/Nov 2025
🗓️ Deadline: 21 Aug

Details + apply 👇

2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior 2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

📢 The final piece of my dissertation is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social! Does being an ideologue matter for political disagreement—beyond how many issues are involved? It does, shaping both animosity and how people engage. 🧵https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-025-10049-z

What a pleasure to direct this amazing @ecpr.bsky.social Joint sessions workshop on citizens democratic commitment with Hannah Werner - thanks to all participants for the exciting papers and stimulating discussions!

A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋

New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social

We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698

🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social

Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios.

osf.io/preprints/os...

The limits of Brexit prejudice Since the Brexit referendum, two novel political identities, Leaver and Remainer, have gained political salience in the United Kingdom. Some work contends that Leavers and Remainers display great ani...

Out now and open access at @ispp-pops.bsky.social (with @florianstoeckel.bsky.social)! How deep does animosity between Leavers and Remainers go, and years out from the Brexit referendum, does it remain? 🧵 doi.org/10.1111/pops...