Jeanne Z. Marlier

🚨New blog post 🚨

If fewer people vote, do elections still represent what policies citizens want?

I summarize research using data from 29 European democracies on whether voters and non-voters actually differ in their policy preferences and when turnout matters for representation.

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American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs leveraging close elections are widely used to isolate effects of an elected politician characteristic on downstream outcomes. Unlike ....

I am once again asking you to read Marshall (2022) before running a close-election RDD

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

a hex sticker showing the autrian parliament with palace athene

Happy to release the initial version of ParlAT, an #rstats package wrapping the API of the Austrian Parliament @parlament.gv.at . If you are a researcher, student, journalist, simply someone interested in the AT Parliament, ParlAT hopefully comes as a helpful tool. werkstattcodes.github.io/ParlAT/

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

New and open access, in @psrm.bsky.social: What happens when we make politicians draw distributions? Nic Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social and I explore whether the large errors politicians make about public opinion are artificially inflated by how researchers ask them to estimate it /1
cup.org/4kltoyE

How Many People Have Been Shot in ICE Raids? The Trace is tracking gun incidents connected to Trump’s immigration crackdown. Know of one? Please be in touch.

The victim of today's ICE shooting in Minneapolis is the 5th person to be shot and killed by federal immigration agents since President Trump began his crackdown last year.

This is the 19th time they've opened fire.

We're tracking incidents here:

F.B.I. Agent Who Tried to Investigate ICE Officer in Shooting Resigns

Breaking NYT:

The FBI agent who sought to investigate the federal immigration officer who fatally shot Renee Good has resigned from the bureau, according to two people familiar with the matter, after leadership pressured her to discontinue a civil rights inquiry into the officer.

The worst and most cartoonish application of the Let Them theory

Knowing too much to see fascism ? By Daniel Ziblatt

open.substack.com/pub/ziblatt4...

ICE ended up returning the man, Saly, after realizing he’s a fucking US citizen with no criminal record, per his sister-in-law. These fucking animals.

Was haben wir 2025 über Politik in Österreich gelernt?

Ein 🧵 mit 10 Publikationen aus dem abgelaufenen Jahr ...

NATHAN P. KALMOE AND LILLIANA MASON RADICAL AMERICAN PARTISANSHIP MAPPING VIOLENT HOSTILITY, ITS CAUSES, AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR DEMOCRACY

Sure does seem to capture the vibe

As scary as this moment is, remember that support for political violence went DOWN after the July 2024 assassination attempt against Trump, not up www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

We need to make the same thing happen this time.

Very grateful to my supervisors and to the committee for a great discussion!! 🙂

For a data collection we want to launch soon, we're looking for a German speaker who could translate our survey instrument to German. This should only take a few hours of work. Of course we are remunerating! Interested? Please reach out to @alexjabbour.bsky.social !

Thrilled to share that "The Meanings of Voting for Citizens" is out with OUP!

Loved working on this with brilliant mentors, co-authors, and friends

📘 The book (open access) explores how people think about voting and how these meanings influence participation

📊 And the data’s open too via AUSSDA

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

Doing important things at @epsanet.bsky.social …like locating the one veg canapé at the reception 👀
@stawi-univie.bsky.social
@bseisl.bsky.social
@mkaltenegger.bsky.social
@alexanderdalheimer.bsky.social
@marvins.bsky.social
@elenaheinz.bsky.social
@mascakir.bsky.social
@thomasmmeyer.bsky.social

The schedule of the presenters from the EPSA2025

From 26 to 28 June 2025, the 15th Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association will take place in Madrid, Spain. Many of our colleagues will attend the conference and present their research. #EPSA2025. The presenters are: 🧵 1/3

🚨Preprint alert🚨

How does affective polarization change democracy? Lots of pubs study how AP affects trust, democratic norms, inter-partisan attitudes, and participation.

We (w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social) examine a vital assumption this research seems to rely on:
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🧵 Hiring 2 PhDs in political science!

Join my ERC project DEMO-LIES
@uantwerpen.be
🇧🇪
We study how politicians accuse each other of lying/disinfo — and how citizens react: Does it erode trust? Polarize? Mobilize? 🧠🗳️

💥 4-yr fully funded
📅 Start: Oct/Nov 2025
🗓️ Deadline: 21 Aug

Details + apply 👇

Continuing on the same theme, Sylvia Kritzinger will present our paper (w/ @schnizzl.bsky.social) on how politicians' response style (humble or dismissive), gender, and voters' sexism condition voter reactions to political blunders. Saturday 9:30 (Room 0A.10) 🔥

Are independent ministers judged more harshly for corruption? Are women and ethnic minorities held to different standards? How do party and demographic cues interact? I will present work from my dissertation Friday at 15:00 (Room -1.A.02) 💥

Heading soon to #EPSA2025 🎉with 3 papers:

🧠 w/ @mkaltenegger.bsky.social @laurenzennser.bsky.social
When do parties want experts and when do they want outsiders? We unpack parties' strategic appointments in response to crises. Come see our new measure of expertise Thursday at 13:10 (Room 0A.10) 🧠

Proportion of Papers by Year and Team Type

Excited to kick off #EPSA2025 on Day 1, Panel 1! 🎉

I’ll present my co-authored research with @michaelimre.bsky.social on 50 years of gender representation in political science publications. We analyze nearly 100,000 articles across 72 journals to uncover long-term trends. 🔍

@epsanet.bsky.social