Michael Wasiura

I understand that there’s also the Irpin garage video from Mar. 6, 2022, but that one doesn’t show any Russian parade uniforms either.

Am I missing an important piece of evidence from somewhere else, or is this a case of you repeating unverified hearsay during an Atlantic Council event?

I ask because the “parade uniform” in the Mar. 6, 2022 Facebook post is actually an office uniform that can be bought online — the погоны and medals too.

But the “Russian soldiers packed parade uniforms” story must be based on something more substantial, right?

What’s it based on? Help me out 🙏

Last Friday you mentioned that the Russian military had minted “liberation of Kyiv” medals before the invasion. I presume that you have sources which I have not been able to track down.

What, specifically, are those sources?

Оккупанты везли с собой в Украину форму для парада, но что-то пошло не так (фото) Часть оккупантов была уничтожена, а часть попала в плен.

On Mar. 7, 2022, Ukrainian sources reported the parade uniforms story, citing the Facebook post I linked to above. Then Zelensky (March 27) and Hruzevich (April 7) repeated the story.

Is there other evidence I’m missing, or is the whole thing based on a Facebook post?

www.unian.net/war/okkupant...

…because the only photo I’ve ever been able to find of a “Russian parade uniform” does *not* actually show a parade uniform.

So again: what primary, direct evidence leads you to believe that Russian soldiers packed parade uniforms before invading Ukraine?

Zelensky’s word? Or something more?

Not one of those articles presents any direct evidence of a Russian parade uniform. All of theme are “someone says…”

I am aware that many people *say* Russian troops packed parade uniforms, but my question was about what *primary source* evidence that statement is based on…

Where specifically did you get the idea that Russian soldiers packed parade uniforms before invading Ukraine?

The only primary source I’ve been able to find does not actually feature a parade uniform (and the Irpin garage video doesn’t either).

www.facebook.com/share/p/1BZ5...

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

Were any of the disinformation researchers watching the Russian domestic propaganda campaign in the run-up to the invasion?

youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ?...

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

Putin got exactly the war he was expecting on February 23, 2022 (see below).

And yes, there is no indication that he is preparing to end it anytime soon.

youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ?...

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

Mark, where did you get the idea that “Putin thought he had a simple answer to the ‘Ukraine problem’ in February 2022”?

He’s bullshitting you (and it’s working).

The video is 10 minutes. Watch it.

youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ?...

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

Mark, where did you get the idea that Putin *didn’t* know Ukrainians would fight back? In the run-up to Feb. 24, the entire domestic Russian propaganda campaign was about how Ukraine was preparing for a war with Russia.

Did Gromov forget to tell Putin about this?

youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

You’re very close to understanding what happened in 2022.

It’s true that “Putin’s war is a total disaster.” But it *isn’t* true that “he has failed in all his goals.”

“Kyiv in three days” was part of the disinformation campaign. Putin got exactly the war he planned for.

youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ

YouTube video by Michael Wasiura Miscalculation (Trailer)

Here’s a third explanation for the war: Putin deliberately created a long, impoverishing crisis in order to alter a domestic political trajectory that was untenable for him, and it worked.
youtu.be/p50MgIesDyQ?...

There are two possible paths to peace in Ukraine: either Putin decides to end the war, or else Putin is forced to stop fighting. Biden was incapable of forcing Putin to stop. I will be (pleasantly) surprised if Trump proves capable.

I still expect Trump to blame Zelensky when it all falls through.

Ukraine Anti-corruption Prosecutor Demoted to 'Theft' 'and 'Petty' Cases "I investigate cases of theft and of petty bribery, but there is nothing that can be called 'high-level,'" former Ukrainian star prosecutor tells Newsweek.

In 2023, the prosecutor who oversaw the Kniazev investigation was demoted, and there has not been an independent investigation since. The problem at NABU and SAPO is not Russian influence, it’s pressure from the president’s office (Oleg Tatarov specifically).

www.newsweek.com/ukraine-anti...

Mark, before the invasion, Putin repeatedly called Ukraine a “hostile anti-Russia.” Where did Putin get that idea?

If everyone was too afraid to tell Putin that Ukrainians were prepared to fight back, then why was Putin saying that Ukrainians were prepared to fight back?

bsky.app/profile/mich...

What’s the evidence that Putin was being told before the war that in Ukraine there was “a huge network of sympathizers and agents who were all ready to come out in support of Russia”?

Publicly, Putin was calling Ukraine a “hostile anti-Russia.” Where did he get that idea?
bsky.app/profile/mich...

In the run-up to Feb. 24, did Putin miss the fact that the FSB efforts had twice failed to foment any actual unrest in Kyiv? Because Gromov didn’t miss it. On Dec. 1, 2021 and Jan. 26, 2022, Russian federal channels covered FSB-backed “coup” attempts, neither of which lasted more than a few hours.

Does this look/sound like someone who has been convinced that the conquest of Ukraine will be so quick and easy that the soldiers on their way to Kyiv don’t even need to be informed about the “special military operation” they are unexpectedly taking part in?

So did Putin believe Ukraine was a hostile launchpad, or a brotherly nation that could be “liberated” without a fight? The first wave of Russian soldiers to enter Ukraine before dawn on February 24 was not warned in advance where they were going. Did the MoD also fall for the FSB’s misinformation?

Then why, in the run-up to February 24, was Putin speaking publicly about Ukraine being an “anti-Russia” that had been “pumped up with the most modern weapons”? If his briefers were only telling him what he “wanted” to hear, where did Putin get the idea to say that Ukraine was a hostile force?

You correctly note that rumors of Beseda’s punishment in spring 2022 were greatly exaggerated. But why still give credence to the other part of that Beseda story: that he misled Putin about realities on the ground in Ukraine? What actual evidence is the “good Putin, bad siloviki” version based on?

I will be shocked (albeit pleasantly) if the Putin regime is *not* still in power in 2030. The supposed parallels between Putin and Assad are illusory. Three years ago, there really was a fairly high chance Putin would be ousted in 2024. The invasion of Ukraine changed that.

You offer a very accurate description of how the Kremlin manipulates Western governments and publics, but given the fact that we continue to fall for it, the idiocy isn’t the Putin regime’s.

Hot take: the idea that Kyiv would fall to Russian forces by midnight on February 26, 2022 was as plausible as the idea that IDF forces will be holding a parade in Gaza sometime early next week.

(Note: no one is even suggesting that the latter is possible, and they are correct not to suggest it.)

I’ve been going back through pre-war Kremlin TV shout shows so that you don’t have to. Remember Simonyan’s line about conquering Ukraine “in 2 days”? It was from April 2021. By February 2022, the fantasy of choice was that Ukraine was planning to “provoke” Russia.
www.newsweek.com/even-russian...