Jim Sullivan

It’s worth pointing out that these tactics violate the Geneva Conventions

Why is the Trump Administration fighting harder to arrest 5-year-old children than pedophiles in the Epstein files?

Yeah that's all it is, just is cool when the heat/moisture from that is enough to cause a little band of snow to develop that wouldn't otherwise be there.

The hi-res NAM/HRRR have been insistent on a band of “Gulf effect” rain/snow showers pushing into the Tampa/Sarasota area late tonight. The sounding suggests a moist/unstable enough BL for it, and salt particles may help act as ice nuclei despite the inversion right around -12C (bottom of the DGZ).

Little plume of snow coming off the Perry, OH nuclear power plant this morning.

Just insane legislation being drawn up in Kansas (with other red states likely to follow) that seeks to dehumanize an entire group of people.

0z GFS trending towards the rest of the pack for this weekend's winter storm...

Minnesota: "School officials say the [5-year-old] child was used as bait. They say [ICE] agents made little Liam knock on the door to ask to be let in in order to see if anyone else was home."

Respectfully, look at this fucking bullshit that we’re dealing with, not a single person here has “taken the bait.” We have born witness as little kids are used as bait and neighbors are kidnapped on our streets. A mad dipshit is going to invoke the Insurrection Act regardless and you are blaming us

Just a drive by analysis on the end of week/weekend storm...these are not the 500mb trends of a storm that isn't actively trending NW, in more ways than one...
-PV exiting quicker
-Much more amplified northern stream and better phasing
-Both resulting in higher heights ahead of the developing storm

Yes state has obvious jurisdiction here, but yeah I’m curious to see how hard the feds try to protect him from that.

Yes, I think the state of Minnesota could charge him just based off of the videos and eye witness accounts, even if the feds don’t charge him or share their “investigation” with the state.

What a monster

Somehow the video the agent was taking with his cell phone when he shot Renee Good is public, and you have got to be fucking kidding me.

The NAM is not a good model on the balance, but I’d sort of disagree with Mike’s notion that it should be ignored in cases like that one. Have seen more than a few storms over the years where warm air aloft gets much farther north than every model except the NAM suggests and skunks the forecast.

December 5th normals and records for Youngstown Ohio. Normals is 42 and 28 degrees and records of 71 and 9 degrees.

METAR plot of the 251 Zulu December 5th Youngstown observation. Clear skies, calm winds, temperature of 10 degrees F dew point of 8 degrees.

Youngstown, OH may break Friday morning’s record low at midnight. It is 10 degrees at 10 PM. Tomorrow’s record is 9 degrees. Today’s record is 3 degrees.

FLORIDA — Woman in scrubs: “I’m a U.S. citizen! Why are you doing this to me??”

They’re killing people as a twitter joke. It’s depraved. Can’t let yourself lose the capacity to be appalled and disgusted and outraged by this.

European ensemble mean 500 millibar heights and anomalies valid at 360 hours, including above average heights over the north Pacific, Alaska and extending into the Arctic with two closed height contours.

While I'd usually advise against posting 360 hour model images, it's always fun when the ensemble mean has closed 500mb height contours north of the Arctic Circle that far out.

First real tap of arctic air of the season into the Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The lakes still have plenty of warmth and will be primed to go beneath this cold air, with the airmass cold enough for the ptype to be mainly snow. It'll be a quick shot, but some accumulating lake effect is likely.

The CDO is very large, symmetric, cold and expanding, and the eye remains very sharp and warm. Recon confirms the satellite trends and suggests that Hurricane Melissa is deepening at the moment. This is just unimaginably bad for Jamaica.

Dropsonde from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa, showing a surface pressure of 902 millibars and 22 knots of wind...implying a minimum central pressure of 900 millibars.

The latest eye dropsonde (342z) from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa splashed down at 902mb with 22kt of wind...suggesting a minimum central pressure of ~900mb. Melissa remains extremely well organized on satellite and recon suggests it is not at all weakening, and may still be intensifying.

The Blue Jays blew the roof off this inning, holy fuck!

Merrill Garland sounds like he could play basketball for the Cleveland Cavaliers

European model forecast 500 millibar heights and vorticity valid 21 zulu Tuesday October 21st. The model depicts a large closed low centered near Wisconsin, with a compact, sharp negatively tilted shortwave rotating around the closed low and moving into western OH and southwest Michigan.

Forecast sounding valid near Lorain Ohio from the 0 zulu Tuesday HRRR run for early Tuesday evening, depicting skinny instability, veering and increasing winds with height leading to moderate wind shear, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

HRRR model forecast 2 meter temperatures, 10 meter winds, and sea level pressure at 5 pm Tuesday. A cold front extends from Lake Huron to western Ohio and is moving east.

Forecast radar from the 0 zulu HRRR run valid at 7 PM Tuesday, showing a broken band of organized, low-topped convection extending from Lake Huron to central Ohio along the eastward-moving cold front.

Interesting setup for low-topped severe wx in the SE MI/N OH/SW ON vicinity Tuesday aft'n/evening. Cold front really well-positioned ahead of a compact negatively-tilted shortwave, with decent shear and steep low-mid level lapse rates under the cold pool. These setups make the most of a little CAPE.

Shear and mid-level dry air caused Kiko's convection to collapse this evening. Resultant gravity waves propagated away from the convection, briefly disrupting shallow cumulus within Kiko's low-level circulation. These cumulus suggest fluxes are trying to re-moisten the circulation, a slow process.

The trough that carves out over central Canada, the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes this upcoming week has origins north of Alaska early in the loop.

For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.

Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.

The dumbest timeline

Erin was a very impressive hurricane at peak on Saturday. Still was a compact storm, which helped minimize interaction with lingering dry air to the north of the center. And it had a tight, violent, essentially uninterrupted inner core until an ERC took place, allowing for explosive intensification.

Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Hurricane Erin.

Simply incredible.