Jim Sullivan

The CDO is very large, symmetric, cold and expanding, and the eye remains very sharp and warm. Recon confirms the satellite trends and suggests that Hurricane Melissa is deepening at the moment. This is just unimaginably bad for Jamaica.

Dropsonde from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa, showing a surface pressure of 902 millibars and 22 knots of wind...implying a minimum central pressure of 900 millibars.

The latest eye dropsonde (342z) from recon in the eye of Hurricane Melissa splashed down at 902mb with 22kt of wind...suggesting a minimum central pressure of ~900mb. Melissa remains extremely well organized on satellite and recon suggests it is not at all weakening, and may still be intensifying.

The Blue Jays blew the roof off this inning, holy fuck!

Merrill Garland sounds like he could play basketball for the Cleveland Cavaliers

European model forecast 500 millibar heights and vorticity valid 21 zulu Tuesday October 21st. The model depicts a large closed low centered near Wisconsin, with a compact, sharp negatively tilted shortwave rotating around the closed low and moving into western OH and southwest Michigan.

Forecast sounding valid near Lorain Ohio from the 0 zulu Tuesday HRRR run for early Tuesday evening, depicting skinny instability, veering and increasing winds with height leading to moderate wind shear, and steep low to mid-level lapse rates.

HRRR model forecast 2 meter temperatures, 10 meter winds, and sea level pressure at 5 pm Tuesday. A cold front extends from Lake Huron to western Ohio and is moving east.

Forecast radar from the 0 zulu HRRR run valid at 7 PM Tuesday, showing a broken band of organized, low-topped convection extending from Lake Huron to central Ohio along the eastward-moving cold front.

Interesting setup for low-topped severe wx in the SE MI/N OH/SW ON vicinity Tuesday aft'n/evening. Cold front really well-positioned ahead of a compact negatively-tilted shortwave, with decent shear and steep low-mid level lapse rates under the cold pool. These setups make the most of a little CAPE.

Shear and mid-level dry air caused Kiko's convection to collapse this evening. Resultant gravity waves propagated away from the convection, briefly disrupting shallow cumulus within Kiko's low-level circulation. These cumulus suggest fluxes are trying to re-moisten the circulation, a slow process.

The trough that carves out over central Canada, the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes this upcoming week has origins north of Alaska early in the loop.

For whatever THAT'S worth at the beginning of September.

Some early signs of the changing of the seasons this year.

The dumbest timeline

Erin was a very impressive hurricane at peak on Saturday. Still was a compact storm, which helped minimize interaction with lingering dry air to the north of the center. And it had a tight, violent, essentially uninterrupted inner core until an ERC took place, allowing for explosive intensification.

Unbelievable footage from NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters inside the eye of Hurricane Erin.

Simply incredible.

Observed sounding from a dropsonde released by hurricane hunters in the eye of hurricane Erin. The dropsonde hit water with a pressure of 920 millibars and 50 knots of wind.

The NHC did not take long to upgrade Erin to a Cat 5 after recon completed this pass. This eye dropsonde splashed down at 920mb with 50kt of wind, suggesting something close to 915mb for a minimum central pressure. Also, evidence of strong subsidence in the eye with warming and drying aloft.

Oye. Never trust a “PoP” forecast on the edge of a heat dome in mid summer. The flow and forcing appear weak, but when your surface parcel is like 89/74 these small convectively aided shortwaves are enough for widespread convection. A stormier afternoon than expected across parts of Ohio today.

And it was great music to accompany a map showing ensemble probabilities of a tropical depression if you ask me!

That couplet that far from the radar with a spouty tornado is pretty whack

Texas Man Born to U.S. Soldier on U.S. Army Base Abroad Deported He has no citizenship to any country, despite SCOTUS case

Deporting children of military veterans because they were born on an overseas military base.

This man has no citizenship now.

For no particular reason, thinking about some of the major aspects of NHC operations that came out of the NOAA/OAR research labs and the Cooperative Institutes. I've probably missed some key ones, but the first ones that come to mind are...

Very bad

I must admit that lake enhanced precip on the scope doesn’t warm my heart quite as much in late May as it does between October and April.

That third bullet point somehow makes the first two feel even worse

NAM forecast 500 millibar heights, winds, vorticity for 18z Wednesday. The image depicts a strong jet streak over the Ohio Valley with diffluence over the upper Ohio Valley, and a negatively tilted vort max over the southern Great Lakes.

18z NAM forecast mean sea level pressure at 18z Wednesday, showing a surface low near Cleveland, a cold front extending south towards the Ohio and West Virginia border, and a warm front near the western Pennsylvania border. Also mid level lapse rates of 6 to 7 C per KM overspreading the warm sector.

0 to 6 km shear forecast from the 0z NAM showing 30 to 40 knots over the warm sector at 18z Wednesday.

0z NAM surface based CAPE and hodograph overlay, forecast valid 18z Wednesday. Showing a narrow ribbon of 500 to 1500 J per KG of surface CAPE with elongated hodographs aloft.

Somewhat conditional (on heating) severe threat around eastern OH/WV/western PA Wednesday. Ahead of a shortwave and in the exit region of the jet, cold aloft, backed sfc flow/ambient vorticity near the surface low/warm front, and some shear. Hail, gusty winds, perhaps brief tornadoes seem possible.

I just looked at that warning and I see a PDS warning with 40 minutes of leadtime. Any fatalities from weather are tragic, but what the fuck is that guy going on about? PDS/considerable TOR warnings imply an EF-2+ tornado and aren’t meant to be taken lightly.

IEM :: PNS from NWS CLE PNS issued by NWS CLE at 25 Apr 2005 15:17 UTC

20 years ago, a prolonged late-April snow event wrapped up in the Cleveland area, capping off the snowiest winter on record for CLE. Here’s a vintage PNS. Note several counties with at least one 10”+ snow on ground report. The tree damage was significant.

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph...

Appropriate hashtag

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Oh no! Several of the Regional Climate Centers have had their funding lapse through DOC/NOAA. These institutes are critical for connecting weather and climate data and services to local communities across the United States.

Spread the word to drive attention and support!

HRRR? RRFS? Those models don’t exist without NOAA’s Global Systems Lab.

The physics used in even more models? Not possible without us.

Decision-support tools like DESI and IDSS Engine used throughout the NWS? Also us.

What my lab does is *integral* to weather prediction and keeping people safe.

I’d expect these words to be spoken by someone whose loved one was kidnapped by a shadowy criminal organization.

Instead, her husband was sent by the US to an El Salvador gulag over an administrative error, with both countries basically saying “there’s nothing we can do to fix this!”

Dark stuff.

Rest assured that all 3 sips of coffee will be ice cold

It's easy to forget in the middle of all the other bad things going on right now, but the tech oligarchs continue to get an unprecedented amount of access to the very inner workings of the federal government and all of our personal data.

Chuck Schumer is already sliding his glasses towards the bottom of his nose.

Picture of icicles hanging from a rocky hillside

Picture of some very large rocks left by the glaciers in northern OH

Picture of a modest overlook

Picture of a stream and small lake

I was not expecting to see icicles out in the woods on April 9th, but a couple of cold nights after a rainy spell will do the trick.