Brian Tang

Over the next two weeks, there are indications that large-scale conditions will become favorable for ascent in the tropical Atlantic. We'll have to watch for an uptick in TC activity as this pulse of favorability passes, especially in NW Caribbean where ocean heat content is very high.

Opinion | Why Young Men Are Losing Faith in Science

Interesting opinion piece from @adamfrank4.bsky.social on trying to link ‘manosphere’ virtues to real science. Unusually, the comments are also worth perusing!

🎁
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/03/o...

Weather models are showing a bomb cyclone hitting the UK & Ireland later this week. The cyclone forms along a strong baroclinic zone influenced by Hurricane Humberto. As the cyclone matures into a warm seclusion, it develops a powerful sting jet that could bring damaging winds to Ireland & UK.

The HAFS evolution is pretty wild. Humberto will likely be post-tropical by this stage, but the NHC can proclaim Hurricane IMeldedWithHumberto, right? 😉

Hurricane Humberto in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle. We still don’t have a full scientific understanding of what causes these cycles to initiate, even though they are common in mature tropical cyclones.

Slower development and shallower vortex resulting in slower movement to the north?

Some hypotheses:
1) Developing La Niña (resulting in increasing instability)
2) Rossby wave radiation from Gabrielle might have amplified the wave that led to Humberto
3) Just good ole synoptic variability creating a window of opportunity

Looking down Humberto's eye from the side, you can see white seafoam on the ocean surface beneath the eyewall, fading to relative calmness within the eye itself.

ISS astronaut Jonny Kim just shared this snap of Humberto's eye today. You can actually see the seafoam taper off between the eyewall and the eye. Amazing stuff.

This is just about as perfect a hurricane as you'll ever see in the Atlantic.

Category 5 Humberto:

2.5-minute rapid scan #Himawari9 Visible images provided a phenomenal view of low-altitude mesovortices within the eye of Category 5 Super Typhoon #Ragasa, as the storm center approached islands within the Luzon Strait (between Taiwan and the Philippines).

TS Gabrielle’s structure has changed from having persistent bursts of intense thunderstorms on its E (downshear) side, which is a signature of arrested development, to establishing more deep convection on its NW side. Still seems to be affected by dry air that has plagued the storm.

TS Gabrielle has developed a compact core, perhaps signaling a period of faster intensification starting. There have been hints of an eye in visible imagery. The storm is looking much healthier compared to yesterday.

Microwave imagery from the SSMIS shows deep convection wrapping around TS Gabrielle’s center, though the vortex still seems tilted toward the east. NOAA reconnaissance flights today will help to determine structure better.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is getting better organized with deep convection getting closer to the center. Shear will continue decreasing, and as the upper-level flow becomes more diffluent this weekend, Gabrielle should align and intensify further. Thankfully, minimal threat to any land.

Cancelling the next PAR R&D phase is nonsensical. PAR technology is our best candidate to replace our aging fleet of WSR-88Ds.

Weather radar is one of the most lifesaving and highest-ROI technologies our gov’t has ever supported. Scrapping next gen radar is pound-foolish w/o the penny-wise part.

Hurricane science has come far since Katrina. That progress is now at risk Hurricane forecasts are now much more accurate, 20 years on — largely because of federal government research.

Hurricane forecasts are now much more accurate, 20 years on — largely because of federal government research.

Tropical Storm Juliette taking a peek 👀 courtesy two impressive convective bursts.

The next couple of weeks look quiet for Atlantic hurricane activity. Thereafter, it looks like convectively active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation will move into the Atlantic, and hurricane activity should pick back up mid-to-late Sep. Enjoy the quiet period while it lasts!

Usually find 900 or 850 mb to be a good level to choose.

Background low-level flow, so the component steering the storm.

3) Research has shown that low-level flow that is oriented opposite of the shear direction (e.g., Lee et al. 2021), which is the case for Erin, tends to blunt the effects of vertical wind shear by allowing surface heat fluxes to mitigate the effects of downdrafts and sustain eyewall convection. (4/)

2) Hurricane Erin's upshear environment (northern half of the storm) is pretty moist in the middle troposphere. Vertical wind shear weakens hurricanes by pushing dry air into their core (i.e., ventilation). Without a reservoir of dry air that's able to get in, ventilation is minimized. (3/)

1) Hurricane Erin has grown large in size. Hurricane-force winds extend 80 miles from the center, and tropical-storm force winds extend 230 miles from the center. Larger hurricanes tend to be more resilient to vertical wind shear and have larger area of surface heat fluxes to gather energy. (2/)

Despite 29 knots of analyzed vertical wind shear, which is in the high range, Hurricane Erin has restrengthened after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. It has been resilient to shear due to possibly a few reasons. (1/)

NOAA Doppler radar analyses from reconnaissance flights yesterday morning and this morning show the transformation of Hurricane Erin as it evolves. The very compact, intense wind field has become a broader, less intense wind field. The result of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle.

Incredible video of the eye of Hurricane Erin, taken from the cockpit of NOAA reconnaissance aircraft.

It is a blessing that Erin is not a couple of degrees latitude farther south than it is.

Hurricane forecast models correctly showed Erin would undergo rapid intensification, though the devil is in the details. Hats off to some of the earlier runs of the COAMPS-TC model, which got both the onset and extreme rate of intensification correct. That's very challenging to predict.

This is a remarkable image from the NOAA-P3 #Hurricane Hunters in #Erin.

You can actually see the wind speed gradient by the color of the ocean as you go from extreme #eyewall winds to the relative calm of the #eye.

Incredible images & data from @noaa.gov @nws.noaa.gov

Reminds me of Hurricane Milton at its peak intensity last year.