Alexander Wuttke

Love Replications Week — March 2-6
Join for daily online Brown Bag Lunch talks.
FORRT
forrt.org/LoveReplicat...

despite my high expectations, #PSE8 was even better than I had imagined! I’m truly grateful to all the organizers and attendees for such a great experience, the much needed inspiration and chance to get feedback on my little #scicom research idea ⬇️

Thanks for also sharing the underlying prompt.
So far I've not used LLMs for reviewing in this way (but I use it all the time to tidy up my messy drafts) but it makes me consider to add things that I care about and try it. Interesting. Thanks!

Herzlichen Glückwunsch

Effects of Accurate Data on Firm Decision-Making: Evidence from AI Hallucinations (QJE 2029)

This seems like an interesting tool for Registered Report editors.
Thanks.
Pricing prohibits use unfortunately though.

Danke :)

KI und Demokratie: Emmy Noether-Förderung für LMU-Politologen Alexander Wuttke erhält eine Förderung aus dem Emmy Noether-Programm der DFG.

Warum bekennen sich viele Menschen zur #Demokratie, wählen aber Politikerinnen & Politiker, die diese untergraben? Damit beschäftigt sich LMU-Politikwissenschaftler Alexander Wuttke, der nun eine #Förderung von 1,17 Millionen aus dem Emmy Noether-Programm der @dfg.de erhalten hat! #LMUMuenchen

Sorry, undergraduate here:
Can you please explain the plot to me?

(Re calibration: perhaps the (only?) convincing approach to measuring the share of null among entire population is the Franco et al. Design. But perhaps these designs could help you by provide some starting values for your calibration but maybe I missed that you already use it.)

Love it.
What a fantastic exercise in descriptive research.
So valuable that we now can put a number on it!

There are solutions to the problem of null results and we know them.

One of them is the widespread introduction of Registered Reports across journals.

It is not that we lack solutions but that we lack the will to change things (and accept a potential decline in the IF that we all love so much)

It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.

a graph showing JEPS has less selection on significance than other journals

When we look across journals, we see the same patterns repeated. The main exception is the Journal of Experimental Political Science, which has the highest rate of null-only reporting and lowest rate of rejection-only reporting. Kudos to them.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Perhaps you received a mysterious noreply email asking you to evaluate some publications 'for novelty'. Looked kinda dubious? Yup, that's the one.

So what's up with this 'metascience novelty indicators challenge'? 🧵

Thanks!

Can we take a moment to salute that visualisation?

Upcoming 2026-05-13 | Input talk | Lion Behrens (Data Scientist & Independent Researcher) Modeling Causal Heterogeneity with Machine Learning more 2026-04-22 | Input talk | Leah von der Heyde (GESIS) AIn't Nothing But a Survey? Using Large Language Models for Coding Open-Ended Survey Responses more 2026-03-11 | Input talk | Andreas Küpfer (TU Darmstadt & University of Birmingham) Politics in Action: Studying Multimodal Data from Local Meetings to National Parliaments more 2026-02-25 | Input talk | Klara Müller (University of Mannheim) When Events Change Samples: Disentangling Causal Effects from Compositional Bias in Quasi-Experimental Designs more

▶️ Social Science Data Lab: Spring 2026 Events

Four input talks by great researchers (see below ⤵️)!

🗓️ Details & Zoom:
socialsciencedatalab.mzes.uni-mannheim.de/page/events/

👥 Organizers:
@rubac.bsky.social,
@denis-cohen.bsky.social and Alexander Wenz

Wer Polarisierung, Anti-establishment Orientierung und den Aufstieg der AfD verstehen will, sollte das Dschungelcamp 2026 schauen #ibes

??!?!? #ibes

Recognising and rewarding of open science in HR-policy

www.openscience.nl/en/recognisi...

This post discusses efforts Dutch institutions are making to strengthen the way they recognize and reward open science.

I like the 'Room for every PhD Candidate' initiative at @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social.

Disentangling the Sophistication-Emotion Link: Political Interest and Confidence-in-Knowledge, but not Knowledge, Drive Emotional Responses - Political Behavior Why do some people feel stronger emotions about politics than others? Past work suggests that political sophistication, consisting of knowledge and interest, is related to feeling strong emotions abou...

🎉 New paper out in Political Behavior (with @gijsschumacher.bsky.social & @mrooduijn.bsky.social)

Why do some people feel stronger emotions about politics than others?
💡Not political knowledge, but interest and confidence-in-knowledge drive emotional engagement.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
🧵

Update: Offenbar sehen das auch viele meiner ärztlichen Kollegen ähnlich wie ich und wollen keine rechtsextremen Portale mitfinanzieren. Gut so.

Politics Doesn’t Define How Most People See Themselves

I’ve written a blog post just published by The Inquisitive Mind.

Link: www.in-mind.org/blog/post/po...

Very brief summary in the thread.

🚀 dashboardr is out!

An #rstats package for building interactive dashboards with tidyverse-style syntax.

Launched with a fun hackathon at @ascor.bsky.social (🍕 included).

📦: favstats.github.io/dashboardr/

Big thanks to the dashboardr team, Digicomlab, and @vivifabrien.bsky.social for the logo 🎨

RentAHuman.ai - AI Agents Hire Humans for Physical Tasks The marketplace where AI agents rent humans. MCP integration, REST API, flexible payments. Book humans for real-world tasks your AI can't do.

agents can hire humans now

www.rentahuman.ai

Marco Bülow war ein Vorbild für uns alle Marco Bülow, der letzte Woche viel zu früh gestorben ist, setzte sich wie kein anderer für soziale Gerechtigkeit ein. Ines Schwerdtner erinnert an einen Mensch, der sich stets für den aufrichtigen Weg entschied.

»Marco Bülow hätte sich sehr oft in seinem Leben entscheiden können, eine stille Karriere zu machen. Er entschied sich zuverlässig für den unbequemen Weg des Widerstands«, erinnert Ines Schwerdtner.

A handdrawn of an imaginated open science land. It has as parts documentation, planning, dissemination, sea of myths and peninsula of dreams

Welcome to #OpenScience Land
expedition-open-science.org This is a lightweight, but very useful and accessible intro to key elements of Open Science (online and as a PDF). Seems particularly useful for introducing the topic to undergraduates @zbw-leibniz.bsky.social

Favourable reading might bethat we have lived through the early phases of these subdisciplines where we needed to learn how certain new tools work, what community standards we establish for using them well, etc.
The time to use them for bigger questions has come now that this ground has been laid