Gaurav Saroliya

US hourly earnings growth increased for white-collar workers but fell - 2nd month in a row - for blue-collar workers

The dollar’s valuation anchor has shifted higher structurally against many currencies, as discussed in this great thread.

The trade with two distinct drivers !

bsky.app/profile/gaur...

USDKRW - the story so far

Guy, do you have a view on the usefulness of job openings data from Indeed and LinkUp? I didn't know of the latter till the BCA guy mentioned it on the other place. This is the chart he posted recently. Perhaps links in with your point about hurricane impact, although Nov also has sharp declines?

IoD press release: Confidence levels approach Covid lows amongst business leaders Read about IoD press release: Confidence levels approach Covid lows amongst business leaders. Get more of the latest business news articles from the Institute of Directors.

UK business confidence lowest since Covid

www.iod.com/news/uk-econ...

How China Can Hit Back at Trump: Target US Firms, Turn to India, Africa China wields new powers as it confronts the prospect of another trade conflict with the US, expanding its retaliatory reach in recent years to include tools capable of wreaking havoc on global commerc...

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While there are indeed a number of things China can do to retaliate against the prospect of a worsening trade conflict with the US, and these are things the US and the world should worry about, this article makes the common mistake of...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Can’t fly sadly. Existing NATO rules require a new member state to have no boundary disputes.

AI in LDI

UK is in a much better fundamental position.

The Reeves budget outlays weren't mostly unfunded like the Kwarteng budget.

Gilts now have a large premium vs 2022. Real yields are 300bp higher, as inflation has halved.

To borrow from @darioperkins.bsky.social , no moron risk premium needed!

Actually, Edmund does. Just a few lines earlier, Gloucester actually affirms his belief in astrology. And so does Kent, later in Act IV.

Shakespeare neither advocated nor militated.

He just observed and portrayed in a way that stuck.

This Is What the World’s First All-EV Car Market Looks Like Norway is on the cusp of completing a transition away from combustion cars thanks to targeted incentives that made electrics an easy choice

Norway set to go 100% EV. Wow!

‘Toyota is going from one electric model to five to compete with Tesla., fuel stations are ripping out pumps for chargers…nursing homes in the rural interior have switched to battery-powered cars despite months of arctic cold.’

www.bloomberg.com/features/202...

Agree, although if the IMF is to be believed, France is set to establish itself at the periphery of the Eurozone economic periphery, swapping places with Spain, Italy and Portugal.

bsky.app/profile/gaur...

Complex arithmetic I think. Analysts think oversupply is coming even if OPEC extends production cuts as demand is soft and US is pumping a lot, although tariffs/ China stimulus could change that. But also complicating the situation is seriously rapid renewables adoption in China.

Looks like no easy consensus on delaying production increases.
Wonder if the focus for some big members might again shift to gaining market share (like in 2014-15) amid surging US production.

I can sympathise with fading this pop in the schatz yield this morning. But -1 is a step too far for me currently!

And didn’t have a sufficiently generous policy response

Schatz getting Schanbelled this morning

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It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of...
www.chinadaily.com.cn

France- Germany yield spread closed at the widest since the Eurozone debt crisis.

IMF’s forecasts suggest the trend continues.

Spain is swapping places with France in the Eurozone’s economic core.

Even Italy is projected to fare better.

Qu’est ce qu’il se passe???!!

Hurricane impact predominantly

Interestingly, retraced a little over half the initial impact already!

Insightful piece by Professor Simon Wren-Lewis

'Handouts after prices have increased to compensate consumers for lost income leave the shock of paying higher prices in place, and for less engaged voters it may be this that really counts.'

Good news for inflation.
Not so good for retailers’ margins.

Small caps breaking out will be a pretty good sign of the broadening out thesis. Seem to be getting there…

Israel ceasefire headlines enabling this a bit perhaps?

CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services - San Francisco Fed CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates price changes of the typical goods and services that U.S. households consume to understand their role in driving changes in overall consumer...

The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social

www.frbsf.org/research-and...

UST 10y yield reaction to Scott Bessent's appointment means for now we remain in the downtrending channel after the big trendline break in Q2

US 2s10s back to being inverted following further bull-flattening in Asian trading

Hello!
Well I guess I'm on here now too.
Fintwit member since 2013, poster of charts, writer of research at Topdown Charts, and stormer of charts at The Weekly ChartStorm.
Looking forward to seeing how this platform goes.....