Callum Thomas

Weekly ChartStorm - The 2022 Top Special Edition: surveying the signs and signals from the 2022 market peak -- a retrospective look at market cycle analysis principles...

Weekly ChartStorm - The 2022 Top: www.chartstorm.info/p/weekly-cha...

Special Edition: surveying the signs and signals from the 2022 market peak -- a retrospective look at market cycle analysis principles...

Chart of the Week - US Small Caps

This chart provides a unique angle on *both* the Biggest Risk & Opportunity in US markets right now...

Full story + further charts: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Bond Buyers Strike = Gold Bull Market?

A key driver of the current bull market in gold is basically a sort of buyers strike on treasuries.

Partly due to geopolitics (risk of asset freeze) and partly due to fiscal largesse (surging debt/deficit), and a bit of political/policy risk in the USA.

Mor

Chart: AUDUSD Next Steps

Considering the overlooked upside case for the Aussie dollar...

Brief note: australia.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-audu...

Gold ETF Assets reach Record High

Market movements have obviously been a significant contributor, but we're also seeing increased net inflows into gold funds...

Blow-off top incoming? 😱

or new phase of Bull Market? 🤑

So, a few things:
-the growth in big tech/AI
-the rise of intangible assets
-and changing index composition

Means maybe the signal is not really all that comparable to dot-com...

But regardless: it ain't cheap.

(and many other indicators also say (extreme) expensive)

Global Equity Valuations

The Great Catch-Up ...?

All corners of the world are cheap and turning up after long slumber -- and there's a long way to go if they catch even half-way up to the USA.

From: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

The stocks vs gold ratio is rolling over

This could well be the start of a major multi-year move...

But there's a few ways this could happen -- as discussed here: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...

Chart of the Week: Changing Seasons

The seasons are changing, but in ways you might not expect --and this is a good opportunity to think deeper on seasonality + strategy...

Read more (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Friendly reminder... 👀

While the Fed remains on hold, around the rest of the World we have seen a big shift to Rate Cuts.

It's no coincidence that Global ex-US equities are surging on the back of these monetary tailwinds.

More on this issue: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Reserves Reverse

A key force behind the global gold bull market has been central banks reserves diversification, as this chart shows

More notes on the gold bull: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...

Here's a question... 🧐

When will we see a tech-induced productivity surge in the black line?

After-all if AI is set to eliminate jobs, optimize processes, and do all the things -- then arguably that should drive costs down & profit margins up…

For now it seems like it's just the "shovel makers" c

Gold vs Major Assets

See if you can spot the odd one out… 🤔

The rubber band is stretching...

We maybe on the cusp of a new cyclical bull market in Commodities.

Gold signals + bigger picture thoughts: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

I know what you're thinking -- this is actually fine and easily explained away by historically High Profit Margins.

And profit margins are high, they're at a cyclical + structural high.

But a Question for you though: what if profit margins fall?

Time for Commodities to play catch-up?

Gold has been leading the charge here -- driven by strong monetary tailwinds, geopolitics, and big flows.

But don't sleep on the rest of commodities...

Here's why: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Gold looks expensive... BUT

Three things:
1. technicals are strong
2. monetary tailwinds are significant
>> (so it can get more expensive)
3. "gold-value drivers" are still cheap

Read more on this issue (including details behind these indicators) --here: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...

A few things...
1. the stockmarket is not the economy
2. price leads fundamentals
3, price moves faster than fundamentals

Macro is interesting and fun and important, but if I had to pick I would take Valuations + Technicals over macro data (as a multi-asset strategist).

Gold is breaking out 👀

But there are a few things to keep in mind.

What you need to know: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...

There's a tale being told in this chart...

The Relative Value Trinity...
-Small vs Large
-Value vs Growth
-Rest of World vs USA

There are some major multi-year opportunities (and risks?) hiding here in plain sight -- Smart asset allocators take note: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Here's the thing about bubbles...

Bulls get excited because nothing stops the train.
Bears get excited because the bubble will burst.

(meanwhile us pragmatists just keep on being pragmatic and focusing on balancing: staying with the trend vs working on portfolio strategy & signals to manage risk)

Weekly Insights - Edition 226 entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/weekly-ins...

This week: global markets update, defensives tactical outlook, property risk check, REITS in review, Japanese equities, US Small Caps, global banking stocks...

Australian Market Valuation Book - August 2025 australia.topdowncharts.com/p/australian...

The pack features exclusive, innovative, and insightful indicators to provide Clarity and Decision support to Australian investors +those who allocate-to or are interested in understanding this market.

Investor Allocations to crypto ETFs (Bitcoin + Ethereum) peaked at a record high and have now rolled over...

(this is a classic contrarian bearish signal)

Time to focus on risk management.

Chart from: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

Gold Market Chartbook - August 2025

Click through to access the latest Monthly Pack -- over 70 charts on gold, silver, precious metals, and miners + asset allocation issues.

Download the pack: gold.topdowncharts.com/p/gold-marke...

This chart explains a lot...

It takes a Record High 94 hours of work for the average working American to buy 1 oz of Gold.

What does this tell you??

#devaluation #debasement

Gold is Expensive

Commodities are Cheap

It's time to start thinking about (and preparing for) a great rotation between gold and the rest of commodities.

Read more on this setup (free): entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...