Ed Baker

Mostly going under the radar are the huge tariff increases coming for some African countries if AGOA is not renewed.

Extreme views are over-represented on social media. Is it alone responsible for the rise in populism?

Nearly as popular as the green party

Students refuse to get up at half past the hour

Link to the full 𝐀 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭 report from @unctad.bsky.social here:
unctad.org/publication/...

Chart titled: "Developing countries’ interest payments doubled relative to government revenues." It shows net interest payments as a percentage of government revenues from 2010 to 2024, using the median value for each country group. Four line graphs represent: - Developing countries overall: rising from 4.2% in 2010 to 8% in 2024. - Asia and Oceania: from 2.5% to 4.6%. - Africa: from 4.2% to 10.1%. - Latin America and the Caribbean: from 8.5% to 10.5%. Source: UNCTAD, based on IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2025). Note: Figures are net general government interest payments as a share of government revenue.

Today, over half of all countries in 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 and 𝐋𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 & 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐧 spend 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟎% 𝐨𝐟 𝐠𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬.

Back in 2010, half of African countries were spending 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟓% !

Line chart titled “Developing countries face higher but divergent borrowing costs.” It shows average bond yields from 2015 to 2025 for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Asia and Oceania, and the USA. Yields for developing regions rise sharply after 2020, with Africa peaking above 14% before declining to around 10%. Latin America goes from 5 to 9%, and Asia and Oceania range from 4–6%. The USA line also increases, gong from 1 to 4%. Averages since 2020 are listed as: Africa 9.8%, Latin America 7.1%, Asia/Oceania 5.5%, and USA 2.8%. Source: UNCTAD, based on LSEG (April 2025). Note: Based on JPM EMBI Global Diversified bond yields and U.S. 10-year bond yields.

Borrowing costs have surged.

Developing countries now pay 𝟐 𝐭𝐨 𝟒 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 to borrow than the US.

Since 2020, average bond yields:
– Africa: 9.8%
– Latin America: 7.1%
– Asia/Oceania: 5.5%
– USA: 2.8%

Bar chart and infographic titled “3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.” The chart shows that 3.4 billion people live in countries where interest payments exceed public health spending, and 2.7 billion live in countries where interest payments exceed education spending. Regional breakdowns show: Africa: 402 million (education), 791 million (health) Asia and Oceania: 2.14 billion (education), 2.24 billion (health) Latin America and the Caribbean: 140 million (education), 356 million (health) Source: UNCTAD, based on IMF and World Bank data (2021–2023). Note: "Interest" refers to net interest payments.

𝟑.𝟒 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 people now live in countries where interest payments exceed public healthcare budgets.

𝟐.𝟕 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 people live in places that spend more on servicing their debt than educating their children.

If a failed project means modern states are mostly congruent with the identities of 19th C. romantic nationalism, what would a successful project look like?

Dictator?

It's the story deluded Swans tell themselves about their tough upbringing

We need an algorithm to feed the follow and retweet validation drug to the addicts to incentivise top posting

Big if true.

Counter view: people won't know that they need to vote tactically unless they realise that they could end up with farage as pm

The UK death spiral: populism -> brexit -> economic malaise -> populism.

Housework, grocery shopping, running, walking & woodwork.

If Trump was very unpopular among his supporters, then wouldn't Congress or the courts be empowered to stop him?

Tariff taxes on finished products and exemptions for raw materials risks pushing developing countries away from industry and towards commodity dependence.

Average US Tariff Increase by Product Group

- In 2023 Americans spent about $9000 per person on goods from abroad.
- They paid about $250 on tariff tax.
- If they want to buy the same now they'd have to pay $2650.
- If they keep their spending the same they will now buy 3/4 of what they bought before.

The US imposes 104% tariff rates on China, or average 83% with exemptions. If the US wanted to import the same as it did in 2023, they will now have to pay an extra $2500 extra in tax per person. Below graph are the types of products they import:

Africa and Least Developed Countries contribute virtually nothing to the US trade deficit in Goods - the US actually has a trade surplus with the LDCs in Africa.

footnote: from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic...
"This led to Oppenheimer and Sykes' conclusions about the origins of the British being seriously challenged, ... the majority of the DNA ... is ultimately derived from Steppe invaders from the east rather than Iberia"

@hudde.bsky.social und ich haben das AfD-Ergebnis in den 299 Bundestagswahlkreisen & den rund 4400 Gemeindeverbänden ausgewertet. Unsere Ergebnisse vom Montag und zahlreiche neue gibt es nun als Blogbeitrag für @emppolitikwiss.bsky.social. Thread 🧵👇.

www.politik-wissenschaft.org/2025/02/28/a...

Afraid of farage? Convinced needs to get more populist until reform go down in the polls?

Male-female friendships are a under-rated driver of gender equality.

When women can fraternise freely, they can share ideas, gain respect, & build empathy with men who care about their wants & welfare.

Countries with high male-female friendships score better on equality 👇

Chart showing trade balance between US and Canada in surplus once you exclude oil and gas

Brilliant chart in Martin Wolf's column this am. The US has a trade surplus with Canada once you exclude oil and gas- which it uses to make the goods it sells to.... Canada.

Also worth noting or?

bsky.app/profile/edba...