Rikio Inouye

One more piece of evidence that the defining problem of an AI world is not “how do we harness the genius machine?”, it is “how do we contain the lying machine?”

Thank you @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for an amazing Global Public Opinion workshop! Great scholars and conversations ! Wonderful to see @jkertzer.bsky.social @jonathan-renshon.bsky.social @eunajo.bsky.social too!

Congratulations to @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and @kmatush.bsky.social for the launch of the Global Public Opinion Lab (GPOL) at Florida State! Lots of exciting plans in the works!

(I couldn't take any pictures of public opinion, so here's one of Spanish moss)

Presenting this afternoon Peace Science - last panel of the day 😊 With @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social , @kmatush.bsky.social , and Eun A Jo!

New version just uploaded 😊

🧠 Big takeaway: Democratic decline doesn’t just undermine norms at home — it erodes the public foundations of alliance cooperation abroad.

Trust and shared values aren’t abstractions; they’re the glue of intelligence networks and security ties.

📄 Full working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

🇺🇸🇬🇧🇨🇦🇦🇺🇳🇿 The effect is consistent and sizable: when a partner democracy is portrayed as backsliding, public willingness to share intelligence drops markedly — even when that partner is the US itself.

Democratic erosion travels. So do its security costs.

🧩 Test: Pre-reg experiments (N ≈ 6,000) across the UK, Canada, Australia & New Zealand — the US’s core intelligence partners.

Respondents evaluated intelligence-sharing with another democracy, randomly described as either stable or backsliding.

Result? Backsliding ↓ support across every country.

Democracy isn’t just a value—it’s national security.

New WP with @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social @kmatush.bsky.social & @eunajo.bsky.social finds that across 4 close US partners (UK, Canada, Australia, NZ), backsliding sharply reduces public support for intelligence sharing—even with the US.

Was just in a behavior workshop today and this piece is still so helpful for people to consider when designing experiments and interpreting (null) effects!

Website: rikioinouye.org

Infographic Rikio Inouye against a chevron inspired background of Princeton's black and orange. Rikio Inouye International Relations Expertise: International Politics, Race, Ethnicity, and Identity, Foreign Policy, Political Psychology Dissertation: How Far for Whom: How Identity Heuristics Shape Foreign Policy Support and Foreign Policy Making Committee: John Ikenberry, Tali Mendelberg, Naima Green-Riley Princeton University Logo. Princeton Politics Logo.

@rinouye.bsky.social examines how racial and religious identities of countries in conflict shape public support for them. He argues identity isn’t just another factor, but a lens shaping how people interpret strategic and material information, with real consequences for conflict support.

About That Japan Deal Arithmetic has a well-known globalist bias

An instant post about that Japan deal. It's basically a joke
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that...

The last two months have been rough with three rejections. But today I got a great R&R! 🥳

Fans React to Colbert ‘Late Show’ Cancellation With Puzzlement and Anger Many questioned the timing of and motivation for the announcement, noting that Mr. Colbert hosted the most-watched show in late night television.

The first people to hear that CBS was canceling “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” reacted to the news loudly, and viscerally, with a chorus of “No!” that turned into a sustained round of boos.

State Department to Soon Begin Mass Layoffs

700 diplomats at State are set to be laid off. This amounts to 60% of all foreign service officer currently based in DC. 60%!

State Department to Soon Begin Mass Layoffs www.nytimes.com/2025/07/10/u...

Here are the latest developments.

There are going to be a lot of euphemisms and double talk in the days to come. So give the Times credit for telling it straight:

"The United States has entered Israel’s war against Iran."

www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

This is nothing like Iraq or Afghanistan from a public opinion standpoint. In both cases, large majorities supported military action. This time, large majorities oppose it. Chart from the great @gelliottmorris.com. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-amer...

With Decision to Bomb Iran, Trump Injects U.S. Into Middle East Conflict By bombing three nuclear sites in Iran, the United States has joined Israel’s war against the country. Now it is bracing for Iranian retaliation.

By bombing three nuclear sites in Iran, the U.S. has joined Israel’s war against the country. Now it is bracing for Iranian retaliation.

There's no declaration of war, and no AUMF that covers this. Entering this war is wrong on the merits; we had a perfectly peaceful way to address Iran's nuclear program. It's also unlawful. A democratic republic should not be able to enter a war of choice on one man's say-so.

No one knows where the conflict with Iran will lead from here. My guess is what has happened today will resolve little. My guess is the conflict will remain sporadic and the biggest X factor will be that Bibi does not want it to stop. Bombing Iran into an effective enduring deal seems unlikely.

U.S. Enters War With Iran, Striking Fordo Nuclear Site: Live Updates President Trump announced the United States had struck Fordo, Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facilities, as well as two other sites.

Breaking News: President Trump said that the U.S. had bombed Fordo, Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facility, as well as two other sites.

THIS

IR scholars (Tomz and Weeks 2013, RPP 2024) have asked if the public supports preemptive strikes on nuclear sites against democracies vs. non democracies. Never thought I would see it happen, but we’ve just done so against Iran.

No congressional approval.

@jlpweeks.bsky.social

Four Princeton Honjo Scholarship recipients and JANNY representatives.

Congratulations to Charlotte Fitzek, Rikio Inouye, and Etienne Gagnon who received Honjo Scholarships from @JAANewYork to support studies that "will help further US-Japan relations." @rinouye.bsky.social

New working paper! When US aid leaders are diverse, public support for them and US aid rises.

Who people see shapes how they feel. Diversity is a #ForeignPolicy asset.

👉 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

w/ Soohyun Cho and Simone Dietrich

#PoliSci #ForeignAid #DiversityMatters #USForeignPolicy

Thanks for the shoutout. Didn't know it was out already. If folks can't get access without forking over loot let me know.

It's hard to find the words. NSF just terminated the grant for Journeys, a mentoring workshop that tried to tackle underrepresentation of women in international relations. Future scholarship will be the worse for it. But this photo from our last gathering will motivate me to keep fighting.

Friends and colleagues at #fsu, I am so sorry, and I hope you are safe!

New in PNAS Nexus :
🇺🇸 U.S. democratic backsliding hurts its image abroad
🤝 But it doesn’t erode foreign policy cooperation—yet. Tested this via survey experiments in 12 countries (N = 11,810)
📄 doi.org/10.1093/pnas...
#Democracy #USPolitics #PublicOpinion #ForeignPolicy