Doug-a-boo McCrae

How do voters respond to economic crises: Do they turn against the incumbent, reward a certain political camp, polarize to the extremes, or perhaps continue to vote much like before? Analyzing extensive data on electorates, parties, and individuals in 24 countries for over half a century, we document a systematic pattern whereby economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right. Three main forces underlie this pattern. First, voters tend to decrease support for the party heading the government when the crisis erupts. Second, after crises, voters tend to assign greater importance to issues typically owned by the right. Third, when center-right parties preside over a crisis, voters often drift further rightward to nationalist parties rather than defect to the left. The far-right thus serves as an effective vehicle for keeping the center-right in power even when facing postcrisis disaffection by its voters.

This paper finds that economic crises benefit the right.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Trump is so far beyond the boundaries of acceptable behaviour that to include him would mean giving up on morality and the notion of legitimate authority altogether. If Trump’s acceptable then everything is.

as the Cats went out at a hole neare the chemnie, the last turn’d about his head and cryes forth, Ai what ailes Beatie now. In this meane tyme, the poor mans wife Bettie Sandilands whose face Jean Craig had blowne on, was lying bound hand and foot because of her Madnesse.” 3/3

Craig then sent a horde of cats to torment Beatrix’s husband, John Parkie.

“The said Jeane is accused for making a number of Cats skip and trip round about Johne Parkies Fire side and hee to rid himself of such a horrible sight, taking up a Tree [piece of wood] to chase them away, 2/3

There was a particularly bizarre alleged incident in the records of a 1649 Scottish witch trial. Jean Craig was accused of causing the madness and subsequent death of Beatrix Sandilands by blowing in her face and uttering a curse: “ane blak sicht be upone that face”. 1/3

Further evidence that he always believes whoever spoke to him last!

Strangely after Trump spoke to Gov Kotek six days ago he said she was "very nice" and asked "am I watching things on television that are different from what's happening?"

But after this moment of lucidity he claimed today that the politicians only say "there's nothing happening" out of fear.

Yes, there are groups that aren't doing much, like the Dem leadership, mainstream media and the business world. And there are those that actively support Trump: GOP, Supreme Court, right wing media, Musk and some other billionaires. The military leadership seem to despise Trump and Hegseth.

Taking the weakness "Nose grows whenever I tell a lie" in a roleplaying game and abusing it to generate unlimited amounts of wood.

#ttrpg #pinocchio #liar

Reminds me of the pushback against the claim that Haitian migrants were eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio from the Republican mayor and governor.

Another new feature of Trumpism is that the modern equivalent of Birchers now run the government. GOP politicians and SC justices inhabit a terrifying fantasy world constructed by right wing media. In this alternate reality all Democrat-run cities have been burned to the ground frex.

The removal of any restraint on presidential power is unprecedented in the US. The racism is not.

There was a guy in my social circle, back in the early 90s, who would direct gendered abuse at pinball machines when he was losing. At the time I thought it revealed something pretty disturbing about him.

In the last eight months there's been a process of constant and rapid escalation. I don't see that stopping any time soon. Perhaps if Trump dies but maybe not even then. The movement has a lot of pressure behind it from other GOP politicians, wealthy backers, and the right wing media.

Brexit was similar. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove's plan was for the Leave vote to be strong but not win, leaving David Cameron fatally weakened and open to a leadership challenge. You could see on their faces that they were shocked by the (disastrous for everyone) outcome.

There was talk at the time that his plan was to come a strong second in the Republican nomination as marketing for the soon-to-launch Trump TV. He'd done something similar several times in the past, running for president or at least floating the idea to promote a new book.

That the Little People had inherited the secrets of occult power, or perhaps we should say in this case 'rudimentary magic', there can be no doubt at all. Had they not done so, the Anglo-Saxon peasantry and that of Brittany, where they had numerous settlements, could easily have wiped out their small communities. Instead, for many centuries, they paid tribute in farm produce to be spared having a murrain put on their cattle, a blight on the crops, or a spell that would cause their women to miscarry.

Do you agree with Dennis Wheatley's argument in "The Devil and All His Works" (1971) that the survival of the Little People can only be explained by their magic powers? Wheatley's source is Margaret Murray, who he describes as a "very high authority".

This isn't what I expected. The relationship between income and voting patterns seems to have switched in the presidential elections contested by Trump, becoming even more pronounced in 2024.

Also, the output of one of the slop tubes is constantly being manipulated by the world's richest man to make it more racist.

It's a good example of the way right-wingers in the US treat successful black people. Their status has been granted by white people and is wholly dependent on their good will. It could and will be taken away if they don't show sufficient "gratitude".

bsky.app/profile/doug...

Bronze statue of Dodi Fayed and Princess Diana. The couple, barefoot and wearing light clothing, are holding hands and releasing, for some reason, an albatross. The work is labelled "Innocent Victims".

I've been once, about twenty years ago. The statue of Dodi Fayed and Princess Diana is what I remember the most, because it was so gauche and ridiculous.

I’ve been horrified by the level of support for Reform in Scotland. Now in second place behind the SNP. There have also been protests outside hotels housing asylum seekers, in Falkirk and Aberdeen. Thought we were more resistant to that type of politics.

There's been constant and rapid escalation over the last eight months so there's no reason to think it will stop of its own accord. Either Trumpism is stopped by forces external to it or it will keep getting worse.

The conservative justices seem to be equally as immersed in the right wing media ecosystem as conservative politicians. That's clearly not good for their sense of what's real and what isn't.

A stronger welfare state would require higher taxes which would be opposed by the most powerful group in US society: rich people. Much easier to believe that your childhood can be restored by attacking groups that don't have much power such as migrants and trans people.

The signal from the 2024 electorate seems to have been "We only care about cost-of-living" so current Dem messaging is understandable. But they're failing to grasp the scale of the threat. If Trumpism succeeds there won't be another free and fair election in the US for decades.

I suppose there's a bit more to it. For example the images of Carl Weathers in the training montage from Rocky III and clasping hands with Schwarzenegger's character in Predator are probably intended to represent an imagined past racial harmony that will somehow return after mass deportations.

It’s an appeal to nostalgia using a variety of media from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s. When all the “criminal aliens” are removed the world will return to the way it was in the viewer’s idyllic childhood. Such an appeal is inherent in the slogan Make America Great Again.

"Why I left the right" is a lot less common as a genre. I suspect because there's no money in it.

It's disgusting that children were exposed to such a sexually suggestive name as "Woody".