John Springford

"We want people to be living in mixed communities, don't we?"

Robert Jenrick's home is in Eye, Herefordshire, where 165 out of 166 residents were white at the time of the last census.

The obvious point here, which doesn't seem to have occurred to Jenrick, is that there has been a long history of white people moving out of ethnically mixed neighbourhoods. Refusing to integrate, if you will.

Thank you sir.

But your scepticism on consumption not being influenced by the long end is to do with wealth effects? Ending QT reduces supply of gilts, raising prices?

Could you spell that out for the slow-witted among us?

Yes I note in your excellent chart on occupations that visas for business people has held up better than other roles, bar doctors. Macroeconomically, this policy is stagflationary of course. How much so is depends on the numbers.

I'm doubtful it would be a big rise because people few young graduates earn £40k. You really want to attract people in their 20s. Maybe the threshold can be kept and the problem can be eroded away by drag. But then you've got all the visa costs, NHS charge etc.

Well, we can push the state pension age into the 70s.

Badenoch now responding to Jenrick's comments on skin colour. It's clear there is no level of comment on race which would make her take action, no matter how plainly discriminatory.

It's incredibly difficult to forecast migration, as it's determined by recessions abroad, recessions at home, supply shocks, wars and policy at home and abroad. James might be wrong! That's why over-reacting to shocks with policy changes is bad for labour supply and tax revenues, public services etc

Great thread. Over-correction has been likely, as many of us have been warning.

IEA Cuts US Renewable Growth Forecast in Half on Trump Policies The International Energy Agency slashed in half its forecast of US renewable energy growth by 2030, even as the rest of the world races to double its green power capacity over the same period.

The International Energy Agency slashed in half its forecast of US renewable energy growth by 2030, even as the rest of the world races to double its green power capacity over the same period

And if that forecast is right, it means that the UK will become a net electricity exporter. If so, will that reduce national income in the 2030s or raise it?

The consensus forecast says (broadly): the North Sea basin is declining, irrespective of new licenses; North Sea wind will generate about a twentieth of Europe's electricity demand; gas will set the price of electricity less of the time as it increasingly drops out of the merit order. You disagree?

OK, let's take this seriously. I had an odd half an hour and via Apple Books had a quick look at the three claims I knew most about - two re the post-Brexit bilateral preferential trade agreements replicated from the EU versions and one about cheaper bananas. All are wrong or wildly implausible. 1/n

We've already seen a fair amount of direct action against deportations here. The sort of numbers they're talking about make this sort of disorder impossible to avoid.

This is what the Conservatives and Reform want to bring to the streets of Britain

So out of touch. I genuinely feel a bit bad about it

bsky.app/profile/john...

Never had a turkey twizzler. I've never owned a games console or a VHS player. I haven't seen Pan's Labyrinth, City of God, Finding Nemo, Requiem for a Dream, Eternal Sunshine, Downfall or any superhero movies. Never knowingly listened to Ed Sheeran, Drake, Bieber, Ariana Grande or Tupac.

I'm not saying Europe doesn't have important niches in the tech industry, just that the size of Silicon Valley is hugely bigger and can't be replicated in Europe without big barriers to imports. The industry is all network effects and agglomeration.

It's the 116th most valuable global company. ASML is 27th. Not nothing, but Europe doesn't have anything like Silicon Valley.

Progress on consumer robotics has been slow, though. (Industrial robotics is obviously a different story and Germany is a major player there.)

Europe should focus on what it's good at (healthcare, pharma, green tech), import US digital tech, and regulate it so that it is less socially and politically corrupting. That should be non-negotiable, even in the face of threats of punishment by Trump.

Tech and the Wealth of Nations Does every country need to have a Silicon Valley?

Good Krugman piece on the lack of a European Silicon Valley. Tech doesn't do much to raise productivity across the economy - unlike, say, Ford in the early 20th century, which employed a lot of people and drove productivity growth through better transport. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/tech-and-t...

Tawny owl

Six weeks ago, I picked up a year-old tawny owl with a broken leg off the main road near our home and dropped him off at our nearest vet.

After a few days, I received one of the most bizarre phone calls I’ve ever had, asking “So when are you coming to pick up your owl?” 🧵

The 'one last heave' theory of border control.

History repeating but with more authoritarianism each time.

Why is it a bumper year for acorns? A warm spring is one of the factors that has led to a so-called

Are you in the UK and have noticed a huge number of acorns and beech nuts on the ground? That's because it's a mast year!
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/arti...

If as seems likely the UK becomes a long-term net power exporter, you think this will be negative for national income?