World's Second-Biggest AtlasIntel Hater

This isn't even as US-only problem, there are so many political parties where the membership is divorced from electoral reality.

In countries with primary elections or "jungle primaries" in the first round, voters consolidate around unelectable candidates all the time, like JM Le Pen in 2002

Of all the potential Bolsonaros, they had to pick the corrupt and boring one. Another Jasmine Crockett situation over there

If Lula wins again, the Brazilian right will have held the presidency for 4/28 years between 2002-2030. That is insane, if a US party went 1/7 in presidential elections, it would also commit seppuku.

PT is completely cooked after Lula leaves, but if he wins another term, the Brazilian right will commit seppuku. So, maybe that's why he's leading polls rn.

6% of Colombia’s population is just Venezuelan refugees now. This was a very noble humanitarian act. To expect zero backlash is naïve, however.

For the US it’s certainly a net economic benefit because we got the most educated and skilled Venezuelans.

Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Brazil? Not as much. I don’t want to believe the Fraudlas Intel poll that US intervention is +30 in LatAm, but it certainly isn’t underwater.

before any campists get into my mentions, Maduro's favorables in Colombia are like -92, turns out being a corrupt autocrat and causing a humanitarian crisis on the Colombian border wasn't very popular

lastly, despite what we think of it, you have to wonder if the Colombian and Brazilian left would prefer Maduro get ousted somehow. It would certainly help Cepeda tremendously in Colombia.

Bolsonaro hitting just 58% even with right-wingers is far worse than Trump ever saw

Lula has also remained much more popular than other incumbents. He was likely back over 50% earlier this year and is probably around -7ish now. And the backlash against Bolsonaro's criminality has been much more real than our Trump prosecution attempt

Lula had the huge benefit of coming into office after the great inflation wave (which definitely hurt Bolsonaro bc no Brazilian incumbent had ever lost before). So the economy has been pretty decent all things considered even if the Lula regime has been meh

he's up 8-14 over F. Bolsonaro and just 3 over Freitas, so of course the right is going to run Bolsonaro lmao

Nikki Haley moment

I honestly think he would lose to Tarcísio Freitas (basically the Brian Kemp of Brazil), but if the right runs Bolsonaro's failson that is a different story.

If it ends up being Lula vs. Bolsonaro's son, Lula would have to start out as the favorite. Tarcísio is way better on paper, but he basically cannot run unless Bolsonaro endorses him. And Jair is obviously going to endorse his own son over anyone else

Given that Lula is 80 and would be running for a fourth term, it's astonishing he's managed to stay ahead of the right in most pre-election polling so far. He's slightly ahead in second round polling of an even more electable candidate like Tarcísio.

feel like that can't last, but who knows?

There is too much political engagement. These types of accounts need to go find a football team to root for. They'd make great boosters at the University of Michigan rn

Canadian-Mexican Century?

If we’re talking entry-level woo stuff like adding protein to everything or believing in the power of special energy packets you’d basically be alone out there. It’s endemic to the US. And Europe is not much better

I know on bluesky everyone acts like it’s easy to follow the science and avoid the woo woo

Outside of this 3% of the population it’s insanely hard. If I cut out anyone I knew with crank health beliefs that’d knock out ~2/3rds of my friends in one go (most of my friends are runners)

Similar to how no one ever flips from Republican to Democrat, it’s super rare for anyone to flip from Liberal to Conservative in Canada

Which probably says something about which parties represent the national aegis 🤔

I seriously was unaware Illinois had a Lt Gov position until she ran for Senate. so that hasn’t been a boost at all

Mark Carney got another floor crosser

There is a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the Liberal Party of Canada

I think Weiser had a shot until Bennet endorsed the gerrymandering referendum

How are there like 25 replies to this saying "what's the point in doing good messaging that worked if we lost anyway"? Then just don't follow politics, go follow an NBA team, the Thunder are 24-1 and a good bandwagon.

idk what the status of Wisconsin is; they're going to look at the maps in time, but it's unclear if it'll get sorted before filing. Also it's sorta hard to draw a better map for Dems than 4-4

CO could get a referendum on the ballot in 2027 and get a new map installed by 2028, but that's the earliest.

Both NY and CO have expressed interest, but they need to pass a constitutional amendment to do so. New York requires two leg sessions + referendum (would have to happen in 2027, probably), and CO also requires a referendum (likely after Bennet becomes governor bc Polis is a loser)

I should say Ohio is really dependent on whether Landsman and Kaptur can win their new seats (in a 2026 environment, it's possible) but I split the difference and said -1.

If Florida redistricts, then it would take out 2-3 more Dem seats, but that's pending the VRA getting wrecked. This would also likely cause more gerrymanders everywhere (e.g. Illinois, where no VRA would let Pritzker go crazy).

Depends on Florida and the Missouri referendum. Right now, the Virginia gerrymander will cut it to about even, depending on how much you like Don Davis' chances.

NC is -1, OH is -1 (but may be keepable), MO -1, TX/CA cancel out, UT is +1.

Virginia would draw out 3 R seats to make it a wash.