Tim Collins

[at my second rodeo] listen up you ignorant sack of shit

A spectacular view of Hurricane Erin swirling north as lightning flashes throughout the system.

Erin's deepening rate is now a staggering 7.8 hPa/hour:

Photo from the perspective of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the eye of Hurricane Erin. A blue ocean can be seen along with the clouds marking the edge of the hurricane's eyewall.

📸August 16: Images from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter and our NOAA Satellites Ocean Winds team show an intense eyewall in Hurricane #Erin This photo shows the ocean surface calm in the eye and roaring in the eyewall. For the latest forecast visit hurricanes.gov

This is one of the most beautiful things I have witnessed, the craft here is impeccable.

Fortunately well out to sea, but check out #Dexter & its resurrection as a powerful #extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic.

Perfect case for a meteorological deep dive: Favorable trough interaction led to "sting jet" formation & #hurricane force winds as cyclone phases w/ shortwave. 🌀 🦂

my fellow excessive sweaters, rejoice!! the first comfortable air mass on the horizon since july 4, and maybe the second time we've seen dew points below 60 in about a month. 😍

T-minus 10 hours to the Avett Brothers and @joekwon80.bsky.social at Wolf Trap woooo hoooo! 🎻🤘🏻

Undefeated

my endorsement for any democratic presidential candidate who promises to send the entire DOGE team to prison

Gunnar Henderson clearly checking his swing, but goofball CB Bucknor behind the plate not asking for help and ringing him up for strike 3.

lol CB Bucknor behind the plate, not even asking for help down the line. good freakin grief, man.

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 2-3 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 3-4 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 4-5 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.

NOAA Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlooks all valid for 5-6 April 2025. The outlooks were very consistent in their location and the observed flooding occurred essentially right in the locations where the outlooks showed the highest probabilities.

We often (rightly) see maps like these showing how good SPC convective outlooks are; let's also give some kudos to WPC for some outstanding excessive rainfall outlooks for this event. Especially impressive are the day 5 outlooks, giving advance notice of prolonged excessive rainfall and flood risk.

Sharing a WPC graphic regarding the incredibly concerning flood threat later this week.

$157 in mine 😳

A screenshot of a Peanuts cartoon where Charlie Brown can't sleep and wakes up to a baseball sun

It's the most wonderful day of the year 😍

Good news for Veen, maybe?

As someone who went to college in western North Carolina... seeing this map really hit me pretty good :\ #NCwx

NHC released Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Helene and it's a HUGE report at over 100 pages. Some really staggering facts and maps in there. #NCwx

What are the limits of marine forecasting? Lets find out! An experimental week 2 probabilistic outlook is now live on OPC's webpage here: https://ocean.weather.gov/week2/. Outlooks are statistically derived from the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), calibrated and validated for hazardous weather conditions. Probabilities are produced for three wind speed (34, 48, and 64 knots) and four significant wave height (4, 6, 9, and 14 meters) thresholds for a one-week cumulative interval, associated with week 2. The values provide the probability the event will occur sometime during the specified one-week cumulative forecast period at the locations specified on the map. Below is an example for probabilities of wind speeds >34 kt across the N Pacific and Atlantic, valid 3/26-4/02. New outlooks will be produced and available on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week. Let us know what you think using the feedback form on the webpage, or by visiting this link https://ocean.weather.gov/survey-week2/.

What are the limits of marine forecasting? Lets find out! An experimental week 2 probabilistic outlook is now live on OPC's webpage here: https://ocean.weather.gov/week2/. Outlooks are statistically derived from the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), calibrated and validated for hazardous weather conditions. Probabilities are produced for three wind speed (34, 48, and 64 knots) and four significant wave height (4, 6, 9, and 14 meters) thresholds for a one-week cumulative interval, associated with week 2. The values provide the probability the event will occur sometime during the specified one-week cumulative forecast period at the locations specified on the map. Below is an example for probabilities of wind speeds >34 kt across the N Pacific and Atlantic, valid 3/26-4/02. New outlooks will be produced and available on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week. Let us know what you think using the feedback form on the webpage, or by visiting this link https://ocean.weather.gov/survey-week2/.

📣 Useful new marine forecasting tool from OPC released today! ocean.weather.gov/week2/

In a span of 12 hours, the blowing dust has been transported from New Mexico/Texas to Iowa - the airborne dust is exhibiting a strong signature in #GOESEast Nighttime Microphysics RGB images (brighter magenta) at 0301 UTC over central Iowa. geosphere.ssec.wisc.edu#playing:true...;

PDS Tornado Watches are never good, and they are exponentially worse at night

Overiew An outbreak of severe storms is likely this afternoon into tonight across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Primary Risks A line of severe storms will develop this afternoon across Missouri and lowa and move rapidly into Illinois tonight. Widespread damaging winds of 70-90 mph, strong tornadoes, and large hail up to baseball size will all be possible. Safety Actions Storms will move very rapidly, and it is important to take action when warnings are issued and not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm.

Overview A tornado outbreak is possible across the Deep South Saturday, especially from eastern Louisiana across Mississippi and Alabama. The threat for severe storms will persist into the overnight hours. Primary Risks Clusters of supercells will form Saturday morning and then spread northeastward across Mississippi and Alabama into Saturday night. Intense (EF3+)/long-track tornadoes, damaging gusts of 70-90 mph, and baseball size hail will all be possible. Safety Actions Storms will move very rapidly, and it is important to take action when warnings are issued and not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm.

NWS Storm Prediction Center key messages for the severe weather outbreaks today (3/14) and tomorrow (3/15).

NWS Storm Prediction Center key messages for Friday and Saturday.

In celebration of Bluesky increasing the allowed size of videos, here is what an effusive volcanic eruption looks and sounds like from just ~300 meters away, close enough to feel the intense heat of the Earth creating itself. Sound on! 🔊

Update: I made exactly one (1) pick today in my #TGFBI league. I’m not confident we’ll make the opening series in Japan. Woosah.

After a cold front surged south across the Gulf of Mexico, it crossed Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec then emerged off the Pacific coast of Mexico (into the Gulf of Tehuantepec). The hazy signature of dust lofted by strong gap winds could be seen in True Color RGB images from #GOESWest & #GOESEast.

I swear I am in the slowest, most frustrating #TGFBI league known to man (#1027). I'm a patient drafter, but this is death by a thousand paper cuts. Suggestion box idea for next year: Lump all these 4 hour clock folks into the same league. Brutal.

Alina Habba on veterans who have been fired from government jobs: "Perhaps they're not fit to have a job at this moment."

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