Maha Rehman

I am very happy to share a new labour of love: my new website which is now live:

maharehman.github.io

Feedback welcome! Keeping it simple for clarity.

I am very happy to share a new labour of love: my new website which is now live:

maharehman.github.io

Feedback welcome! Keeping it simple for clarity.

Policy predictability—not just aid—matters. Without credible, consistent public support, firms prioritise survival over productivity. In low-trust settings, adaptive misallocation becomes a structural barrier to recovery and long-term growth.

Contrary to standard disaster economics, the problem is not moral hazard. Firms do not under-invest due to expected bailouts. Instead, they over-invest in short-term resilience precisely because they expect the state will not intervene.

This creates a feedback loop: firm self-reliance lowers expectations of government support, which in turn reduces state pressure to intervene. The social contract weakens, and firms remain locked in low-growth, high-cost equilibrium.

This resulted in adaptive misallocation—rational responses that were inefficient in aggregate. Firms absorbed high costs to survive but made few gains in productivity. Market exit was rare, and creative destruction failed to materialise.

Firm responses varied by capital-labour intensity. Labour-intensive firms adapted with workforce flexibility. Capital-intensive firms relied on financial buffers. But “fragile intermediaries”—dependent on both labour and capital—faced the most severe output contractions.

If it's true that future collection of Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data "will cease," this would be a staggering loss to the global community. 1/6

www.science.org/content/arti...

Eid mubarak!

My new paper, now in print, examines how the 2005 Pakistan earthquake triggered asymmetric firm-level over-adaptation in response to policy uncertainty. (1/n)

Link: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

A thread follows:

Winter in Ithaca is majestic - notice nature's detailing in the grand icicles - but with spring around the corner, I almost miss the stillness and the comforting cold.

Thanks for reading!

Policy predictability—not just aid—matters. Without credible, consistent public support, firms prioritise survival over productivity. In low-trust settings, adaptive misallocation becomes a structural barrier to recovery and long-term growth.

Contrary to standard disaster economics, the problem is not moral hazard. Firms do not under-invest due to expected bailouts. Instead, they over-invest in short-term resilience precisely because they expect the state will not intervene.

This creates a feedback loop: firm self-reliance lowers expectations of government support, which in turn reduces state pressure to intervene. The social contract weakens, and firms remain locked in low-growth, high-cost equilibrium.

A theoretical model captures this logic. Firms form expectations based on a stochastic policy environment. If government aid is persistently absent, firms expect minimal support and rationally divert investment toward self-provisioning.

This resulted in adaptive misallocation—rational responses that were inefficient in aggregate. Firms absorbed high costs to survive but made few gains in productivity. Market exit was rare, and creative destruction failed to materialise.

Infrastructure collapse deepened firm vulnerability. Lacking state support, firms self-provisioned electricity and logistics. These defensive adaptations redirected resources away from capital deepening and technology adoption.

Firms focused on continuity: retaining skilled workers, shedding non-production roles, extending work hours, and diversifying markets. These adjustments occurred along the extensive margin. No evidence emerged of productivity-enhancing investment or innovation.

Firm responses varied by capital-labour intensity. Labour-intensive firms adapted with workforce flexibility. Capital-intensive firms relied on financial buffers. But “fragile intermediaries”—dependent on both labour and capital—faced the most severe output contractions.

My new paper, now in print, examines how the 2005 Pakistan earthquake triggered asymmetric firm-level over-adaptation in response to policy uncertainty. (1/n)

Link: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

A thread follows:

Rare Northern Lights Opportunity On Thanksgiving: Here’s Where To See The Aurora Borealis Tonight NOAA predicts a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm Thursday night, potentially giving people across the northern U.S. the opportunity to see the northern lights on Thanksgiving.

Rare Northern Lights Opportunity On Thanksgiving: Here’s Where To See The Aurora Borealis Tonight

www.forbes.com/sites/mollyb...

I am so excited for this extension to my current research agenda: How do firms in emerging economies, in this case Pakistan, react, respond and adapt in the aftermath of a natural disasters and climate change.

#climatesky

Congratulations

Confronting Climate Coloniality: Decolonizing Pathways for Climate Justice This timely and urgent collection brings together cutting-edge interdisciplinary scholarship and ideas from around the world to present critical examinations of climate coloniality.   Confronting Clim...

🚨My book is online!🚨

"Confronting Climate Coloniality: Decolonizing Pathways for Climate Justice"

This was a journey & labor of love to clarify what climate coloniality is & how to decolonize climate justice. Thanks to many for their support!

Details below.🧵

I am so excited for this extension to my current research agenda: How do firms in emerging economies, in this case Pakistan, react, respond and adapt in the aftermath of a natural disasters and climate change.

#climatesky

Fall in Ithaca!

Lovely!

Yes! I never thought of doing this when I taught a similar undergraduate class but will use it next time I do!

Greensky is so well organised!

The Development community should follow suite