Garret Hohl

#NHLJets lose 4-1 to Tampa, drop to 1-2-1 in their last four, and once again the wheels come off late. Some bright spots, but the same problems remain.

Game 53 recap ⬇️
open.substack.com/pub/thefiveh...

It is not a good defense that more than one coach or GM makes the same decision (mistake).

Biases are not random. They are ingrained in us via evolution through heuristics & such.

They exist in all humans and will be especially pervasive when people have similar backgrounds.

I'm noticing a pattern
#NHLJets

Reminder that a lot of "insider" media is controlled leaks by either GMs or agents trying to impact trades or fan perceptions.

I get trying to inflate trade value, but maybe not the greatest idea

Perfetti is a much more effective forechecker and defensive-zone pick-pocketer than people give him credit for

Top 20 scorers relative to 5v5 TOI for 2019-2025 (minimum of 2k minutes):

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We don’t need this shit in #Winnipeg, or anywhere else.

Au revoir Montreal

My 4-year-old heard Ken say “stopped by Hellebuyck” and he goes “GO HELLO PUCK”

This is my analysis through 4 minutes of play

Unfortunately youd be disappointed if you knew how much teams really do use good modelling/analysis and how much of it is glorified video coaching or coaches/GMs asking if a player does a certain thing a lot/little.

I'm not saying you should or not should call certain calls... but not calling a penalty that is a penalty IS FACTORING IN THE GAME

Update after two, some regression towards the mean by both extremas:

Morrissey-DeMelo: 60% Corsi, 83% xGoal
Samberg-Salomonsson: 73%, 88%
Stanley-Schenn.... 31%, 19%

In the first period you are talking about the Jets making mistakes and having giveaways in the neutral zone.

Half way in the second period you talk about both teams playing "mature defensive hockey without mistakes" (paraphrased).

It's brutal

Man those two have been bad with the puck today.
Most Jets good though.

After one period

Morrissey-DeMelo: 71% Corsi, 96% xGoal
Samberg-Salomonsson: 50%, 71%
Stanley-Schenn.... 11%, 11% 🤔

Private data has way more utility and earlier significance due to the immense granularity, but the overall picture gains are marginal.

Funny thing when he downplayed that point when it was the opposite though hahah

What I mean this:

There's no reason the Jets should be dissapointed with their 5v5 offensive performance. It has been as one should expect.

There's a bias where people get dissapointed by the under acheivers but don't adjust for the over acheivers.

They are who they are.

Given historical scoring rates and their current ice time, the #NHLJets' Forward 5v5 scoring is pretty much EXACTLY as expected.

As many goals as expected and more assists. This team is what you should expect.

Not really underperforming there. #GoJetsGo

Crash Test Dummies
Opeth
KMFDM
K-Aos
UnderOath

(Trying to intentionally make it as all over the place as possible)

Only special teams goals and an ENG for Scheifele? Must be the influence of Blake Wheeler in the building

IMO if you pull the goalie and ice the puck you should not be able to put them back in.

Context:

Speaking of which... "Most improved player ever" (paraphrased)
#NHLJets

Maybe we shouldn't take the guy that says "we" when he talks about the team's travel as being 100% unbiased.

Is this a bad time to point out the Jets have lost/crashed every game that I've been able to watch live and not on replay since Dec 15?