Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/15/2025 Treasury Yields are NGDP Growth Forecasts

Treasury Yields Directly Reveal GDP Growth Forecasts:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/08/2025 The Non-Banana Banana Republic

The US is increasingly the banana republic without the bananas, but recession is still not expected:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/01/2025 Longer-term inflation expectations should limit stock gains for a while.

Longer-term inflation expectations should limit stock gains for a while:

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Yes, because the effects of the expected levels of tariffs will be pretty limited in terms of lost real growth, as it stands now.

Slower growth, but lower risks for stocks and the economy:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/18/2025 A Hobbled Trump Could be Good for the Economy

A hobbled Trump could be good for stocks and the economy:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/11/2025 A green light with red flags.

Green light and red flags in the stock market:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/04/2025 Slow Glide

Stock gains are likely still limited, with economic growth on a slow glide downward:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/27/2025 Rising Risks to Stocks and the Economy

The new war adds risks to stocks and the economy fo now:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/20/2025 Optmistic about Stagnation

Optimism about Stagnation:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/13/2025 Cautious and Lukewarm

Lukewarm about stocks and the economy:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/06/2025 More Glimmers of Hope

The gradual collapse of Trump's tariff regime is helping the economy, but serious concerns remain:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/30/2025 No crisis, but no optimism either.

Rising interest rates are predicting higher inflation, rather than higher default risk:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/23/2025 Stock prices threaten to hit the ceiling.

Stock prices are approaching a ceiling:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/16/2025 Eye of the Storm?

My short note on the stock market/economic outlook:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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I'm fairness to the crypto bros, they are also extraordinarily ignorant about currencies and monetary policy. Bitcoin isn't a solution for anyone who isn't a criminal in the developed world, but they think it has a future as a currency.

Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/09/2025 Not a recession.

No, there was no recession in Q1 and markets aren’t predicting one:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/02/2025 Thawing in the Markets

How sustainable is the recovery in stock prices and the economy?

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Market Compass Outlook Alerts Dashboard for paid subscribers, delivered with status changes after market close. Read for details.

I warned about stock market declines in January.

I updated my stock market alert dashboard Details here:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/market-com...

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Its a new week. Have you read or watched Krugman's second interview with me?

Former Pentagon official warns department's dysfunction could topple Hegseth “The last month has been a full-blown meltdown at the Pentagon,” John Ullyot, the former top Defense Department spokesperson, wrote in a POLITICO Magazine opinion piece.

An insider is blowing the whistle. Who would have thought that a Fox "News" show co-host with a littany of deep personal problems and a balnk list of qualifications would cause problems running the Department of Defense?

www.politico.com/news/2025/04...

Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/25/2025 Frozen Crisis

Stocks are frozen in crisis, but will there at least be periods of thawing?

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/18/2025 Markets predict lower growth, not default or high inflation.

Markets aren't especially concerned about high inflation or default risk, but slower economic growth, so far.

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#stockmarket #economicgrowth #outlook #recession #S&P500 #earnings #stockprices #forecast #monetarypolicy #AI #investments #economy $SPY $VOO $QQQ

What happened to American manufacturing output is the same thing that happened to US GDP growth. It never recovered after the Great Recession. It was mostly due to tight monetary policy which choked off any hope of a complete recovery, along with demographic changes. Tarrifs will not fix this.

While precise turning points in the stock market are impossible to predict, this dashboard offers indications of when markets think it's safe to go long. You might find this helpful when/if deciding to get back into US stocks and correlated assets again. $VOO $SPY $QQQ $BTC.X

The good news is, inflation expectations are no longer above the Fed’s 2% target, in core PCE terms. The bad news is, it’s due to an overarching negative demand shock.

Goals of the Tariffs? Own Goals

Goals of the Tariffs?

exactmacro.substack.com/p/goals-of-t...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/11/2025 "Liberation" from prosperity?

Liberating us from prosperity, as markets are in crisis:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 04/04/2025 Dimming Light at the End of the Tunnel

There's much data to indicate slim prospects for stocks for now:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Introducing Stock Market Outlook Alerts. Help increase your rate of return:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/market-com...

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