Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 10/17/2025 Shocks aren't so shocking anymore.

Economic shocks are not so shocking anymore:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 10/10/2025 Yes, AI seems to be boosting productivity.

AI is boosting productivity and stock prices:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 10/03/2025 Slumping slowly toward disaster?

Can the US economy survive the loss of the rule of law?

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 09/26/2025 Is AI growth offsetting tariff and immigration policies?

Is AI growth offsetting tariff and immigration policies?

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 09/19/2025 More stagflation ahead.

More Stagflation Ahead:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 09/19/2025 More stagflation ahead.

More Stagflation Ahead:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 09/12/2025 More signs of economic weakness emerge.

More economic weakness and the true effects of AI:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 09/05/2025 Trump's Incompetence is His Greatest Strength

Trump's incompetence is saving us, for now:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/29/2025 Erosion of the Rule of Law and Policy Stability Threatens the US Economy

Erosion of the Rule of Law and Policy Stability Threatens the US Economy:

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The Fed's Policy Review My Prediction

Predicting the New Monetary Policy Framework:

open.substack.com/pub/exactmac...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/22/2025 Correcting my Big Mistake

Correcting my serious mistake from last week:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/15/2025 Treasury Yields are NGDP Growth Forecasts

Treasury Yields Directly Reveal GDP Growth Forecasts:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/08/2025 The Non-Banana Banana Republic

The US is increasingly the banana republic without the bananas, but recession is still not expected:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 08/01/2025 Longer-term inflation expectations should limit stock gains for a while.

Longer-term inflation expectations should limit stock gains for a while:

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Yes, because the effects of the expected levels of tariffs will be pretty limited in terms of lost real growth, as it stands now.

Slower growth, but lower risks for stocks and the economy:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/18/2025 A Hobbled Trump Could be Good for the Economy

A hobbled Trump could be good for stocks and the economy:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/11/2025 A green light with red flags.

Green light and red flags in the stock market:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 07/04/2025 Slow Glide

Stock gains are likely still limited, with economic growth on a slow glide downward:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/27/2025 Rising Risks to Stocks and the Economy

The new war adds risks to stocks and the economy fo now:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/20/2025 Optmistic about Stagnation

Optimism about Stagnation:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/13/2025 Cautious and Lukewarm

Lukewarm about stocks and the economy:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 06/06/2025 More Glimmers of Hope

The gradual collapse of Trump's tariff regime is helping the economy, but serious concerns remain:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/30/2025 No crisis, but no optimism either.

Rising interest rates are predicting higher inflation, rather than higher default risk:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/23/2025 Stock prices threaten to hit the ceiling.

Stock prices are approaching a ceiling:

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/16/2025 Eye of the Storm?

My short note on the stock market/economic outlook:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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I'm fairness to the crypto bros, they are also extraordinarily ignorant about currencies and monetary policy. Bitcoin isn't a solution for anyone who isn't a criminal in the developed world, but they think it has a future as a currency.

Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/09/2025 Not a recession.

No, there was no recession in Q1 and markets aren’t predicting one:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Stock and GDP Outlook, for Week Ending 05/02/2025 Thawing in the Markets

How sustainable is the recovery in stock prices and the economy?

exactmacro.substack.com/p/stock-and-...

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Market Compass Outlook Alerts Dashboard for paid subscribers, delivered with status changes after market close. Read for details.

I warned about stock market declines in January.

I updated my stock market alert dashboard Details here:

exactmacro.substack.com/p/market-com...

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