Michael R Strain

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

5/ But what reforms would? How, in a populist age, can policymakers actually deliver more prosperity to the Americans who need it most?

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

4/ Unfortunately, the solutions being offered by today’s populists – namely protectionism, nationalism, and larger, more heavy-handed government – simply won’t fix the problems they purport to solve.

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

3/ Critics of populism – myself included – should be among the first to acknowledge that this impulse to focus on the problems facing American workers is both welcome and long overdue.

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

2/ This impulse can be seen on both the left and the right, from President Trump to Mayor-elect Mamdani, who stated: “I’m fighting for the very working people that [President Trump] ran a campaign to empower, that he has since then betrayed.”

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers.

#econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social and I recently published a narrower paper using CPS data to understand the role of minimum wages in shaping wage gains over 12-month intervals (reflecting the limits of what one can do in CPS data):
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Can the American Right Find Its Way Back? Michael R. Strain hopes the Republican Party can rediscover the dignity, decorum, and seriousness that once defined it.

The centenary of Margaret Thatcher's birth received remarkably little attention, offering yet another reminder of how far the right has strayed, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/47YR2ej

Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich Aaron Sojourner We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...

How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers?

New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL
#EconSky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The Problem with America’s Health-Care Subsidies Michael R. Strain thinks the enhanced measures – a temporary salve enacted during the pandemic – should be allowed to expire.

The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social.
bit.ly/3JdNBrU

Michael sits down with Dr. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social to challenge the idea that the American Dream is out of reach. Is homeownership essential to success? Does hard work still pay off? And are our expectations part of the problem?
Listen to the #podcast here 🎧➡️ loom.ly/7l3hQnE

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social explored this topic in a recent column for VoxEU. He argues US manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention. A trade war is likely to decrease employment in the sector rather than increase it.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

The Fed’s Wrong Move Michael R. Strain argues that US interest-rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026, as inflation re-accelerates.

The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf

9/5: CBS Evening News Plus A possible upside to August's slowing job growth; Reporter's Notebook: Can a manufacturing renaissance deliver for workers?

I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed.

www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social

👊

The Senate Must Preserve Fed Independence | National Review Whether Lisa Cook stays or goes, the Senate must confirm only Fed governors who are independent of partisan politics and of the president.

Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory.

My @nationalreview.bsky.social column.

www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky

Graph of the top countries' manufacturing production in billions of 2015 constant dollars. The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that American manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention, and that the trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment rather than increase it.

Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Why Intel warns that government stake may hurt shareholders Washington’s investment may well come with unintended consequences.

What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares?

@novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Trump’s Intel deal is a threat to US economic liberty Taking unnecessary equity stakes in private companies is opportunism — not strategic state capitalism

Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns.

My @financialtimes.com column.

Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky

I'm proud to work with WorkRise and I am proud of the work WorkRise is doing to advance economic mobility for low-wage workers. Please take a minute for this survey.

Link: urban.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

#econsky

Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.

Take a moment to read this by @michaelrstrain.bsky.social on BLS yes, but also on integrity.

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...

#EconSky

Trump’s promise of a US manufacturing renaissance leaves experts scratching their heads Economists doubt US duties will bring about a resurgence of US factory jobs, notably due to Trump’s erratic tariff rollout

The chaos of Trump's sticks, coupled with the absence of carrots, is not on track to set up a manufacturing renaissance, reports @greenhousenyt.bsky.social, with comment from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @drodrik.bsky.social Ann Harrison , Sue Helper, and me.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics shall also collect, collate, report and publish at least once per month full and complete statistics on the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of people employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment."
US law--1913, 1930

With Trump taking aim at government economic data, what other sources can businesses turn to? There are private firms that offer specialized economic data, but they're not always as comprehensive as government sources.

2/ If the integrity of official statistics erodes, then there is *no* suitable alternative for businesses, investors, and policymakers.

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

With Trump taking aim at government economic data, what other sources can businesses turn to? There are private firms that offer specialized economic data, but they're not always as comprehensive as government sources.

1/ On @marketplace.org, I argue that private-sector data are a valuable compliment to government data, but are *not* a substitute for government data, like those produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky

#econsky

Trump Must Appoint a Nonpartisan Statistics Chief Michael R. Strain explains why a robust economy depends on public confidence in the integrity of official data.

Donald Trump should think twice before attempting to install a lackey at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, because undermining trust in government data could have cascading effects throughout the US economy, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social argues.

Staffing shortages at the bureau are already fueling questions about the agency’s ability to accurately tabulate data on consumer prices. “The president is risking material economic harm through his politicization of the BLS and of official government data,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who worked with McEntarfer in the early 2010s at the U.S. Census Bureau. “It is imperative that businesses, households and investors believe that official government data are accurate and do not reflect any political bias,” Strain said. “Fortunately, that is true of the data, but by sewing doubt, President Trump is undermining the integrity of the information that businesses, investors and households rely on.”

Trump fired the official in charge of collecting basic statistics about the US economy.

He's risking material harm to the economy by politicizing routine data reports, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tells me.

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Dr. Erika McEntarfer has devoted her career to public service. She has conducted herself as BLS Commissioner with great integrity. There is no evidence whatsoever that BLS data are politically biased.

#econsky

Even if Donald Trump doesn’t make good on his threat to fire the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, his actions could significantly erode the central bank’s independence.

Read more in a new PS Big Picture, with @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, Harold James, and others. bit.ly/3U8OKmr

Federal data has been disappearing under Trump There’s been a “targeted, surgical removal of data sets, or elements of data sets, that are not aligned with the administration’s priorities,” said Denice Ross at the Federation of American Scientists...

Strain said maintaining the quality and integrity of federal economic data “is something that I am very concerned about. High-quality government data is extremely important to financial markets, business decisions, households’ decisions.”

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0... #econsky