Michael R Strain

Christians vs. America’s Taliban Michael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

2/ The state has no business using coercion in matters of conscience, as the Catholic Church itself has long made clear.

My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky

Christians vs. America’s Taliban Michael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

1/ With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes & more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up.

My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky

Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong The conventional view has struggled to contend with robust economic growth

Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. Even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year.

My FT column: www.ft.com/content/2422... #econsky

Is Affluence a Barrier to Living Well? Michael R. Strain thinks the struggle for subsistence and the struggle to flourish occurs simultaneously.

Rich democracies are doing better than ever across many broad measures. While there are genuine concerns about democratic capitalism, it is hardly an obstacle to human flourishing, argues @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/49RnEcn

The year ahead in US politics [FREE TO READ] Friends of the Swamp look forward to what is likely to be a pivotal period, culminating in November’s midterm elections

In the latest FT Swamp Notes newsletter (and before the seizure of Maduro), I asked @constelz.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @sohrabahmari.bsky.social, Lauren Fedor and Rebecca Katz to offer some guidance to the year ahead in US politics as.ft.com/r/faed7e98-5...

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

Fin/ Welcome to 2026. The battle for the post-Trump future of the political right has begun.

My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/9adf... #econsky

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

5/ For conservatives, the only way out of this mess is through it. The fight to keep extremists, their allies and those who would redefine American identity at bay can’t be sidestepped. 

My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/9adf... #econsky

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

4/ Third, conservatives must resist the ascendant effort to redefine American identity as blood-and-soil nationalism.

My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/9adf... #econsky

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

3/ Second, conservatives must push the broader political right to enforce ideological borders against extremism.

My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/9adf... #econsky

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

2/ First, recognise that those of us who prioritise individual liberty, limited government, free markets, personal responsibility, economic opportunity, America’s “credal identity” and US global leadership are a faction on the political right, and not the whole of the right.

🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites.

What are conservatives to do?

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun-The writer is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. www.ft.com/content/9adf... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

5/ But what reforms would? How, in a populist age, can policymakers actually deliver more prosperity to the Americans who need it most?

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

4/ Unfortunately, the solutions being offered by today’s populists – namely protectionism, nationalism, and larger, more heavy-handed government – simply won’t fix the problems they purport to solve.

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

3/ Critics of populism – myself included – should be among the first to acknowledge that this impulse to focus on the problems facing American workers is both welcome and long overdue.

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

Populism won’t help U.S. workers. Here’s what will | George W. Bush Presidential Center

2/ This impulse can be seen on both the left and the right, from President Trump to Mayor-elect Mamdani, who stated: “I’m fighting for the very working people that [President Trump] ran a campaign to empower, that he has since then betrayed.”

www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/bui... #econsky

🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers.

#econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social and I recently published a narrower paper using CPS data to understand the role of minimum wages in shaping wage gains over 12-month intervals (reflecting the limits of what one can do in CPS data):
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Can the American Right Find Its Way Back? Michael R. Strain hopes the Republican Party can rediscover the dignity, decorum, and seriousness that once defined it.

The centenary of Margaret Thatcher's birth received remarkably little attention, offering yet another reminder of how far the right has strayed, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/47YR2ej

Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich Aaron Sojourner We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...

How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers?

New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL
#EconSky
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The Problem with America’s Health-Care Subsidies Michael R. Strain thinks the enhanced measures – a temporary salve enacted during the pandemic – should be allowed to expire.

The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social.
bit.ly/3JdNBrU

Michael sits down with Dr. @michaelrstrain.bsky.social to challenge the idea that the American Dream is out of reach. Is homeownership essential to success? Does hard work still pay off? And are our expectations part of the problem?
Listen to the #podcast here 🎧➡️ loom.ly/7l3hQnE

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social explored this topic in a recent column for VoxEU. He argues US manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention. A trade war is likely to decrease employment in the sector rather than increase it.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

The Fed’s Wrong Move Michael R. Strain argues that US interest-rate cuts this year will have to be reversed in 2026, as inflation re-accelerates.

The Federal Reserve's case for beginning a monetary-easing cycle this month rests on three judgments. But it is off base on all three, writes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social of the American Enterprise Institute. bit.ly/3VnFsnf

9/5: CBS Evening News Plus A possible upside to August's slowing job growth; Reporter's Notebook: Can a manufacturing renaissance deliver for workers?

I enjoyed talking yesterday with @jdickerson.bsky.social on CBS Evening News Plus about the jobs report, the overall economy, and the Fed.

www.cbsnews.com/video/95-cbs... #econsky @cbseveningnews.bsky.social

👊

The Senate Must Preserve Fed Independence | National Review Whether Lisa Cook stays or goes, the Senate must confirm only Fed governors who are independent of partisan politics and of the president.

Trump is hostile to the Fed’s independence. He wants to bend the central bank to his will. He is willing to threaten officials with criminal prosecution to get his way. We are in dangerous territory.

My @nationalreview.bsky.social column.

www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-s... #econsky

Graph of the top countries' manufacturing production in billions of 2015 constant dollars. The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that American manufacturing is not in crisis and manufacturing jobs do not deserve special attention, and that the trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment rather than increase it.

Summarising his chapter from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the 2nd Trump administration, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social‬ argues that American #manufacturing is not in crisis and the #trade war is likely to decrease manufacturing employment.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Why Intel warns that government stake may hurt shareholders Washington’s investment may well come with unintended consequences.

What to make of the latest news that the US government is converting its billions in grants to Intel into equity shares?

@novasafo.bsky.social has the story @marketplace.org with comments from me @michaelrstrain.bsky.social and others.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Trump’s Intel deal is a threat to US economic liberty Taking unnecessary equity stakes in private companies is opportunism — not strategic state capitalism

Trump’s decision to take an equity stake in Intel is astonishing and troubling. His recent deal with Nvidia and AMD suggests security concerns are being used by the president as a fig leaf for rank corporate shakedowns.

My @financialtimes.com column.

Link: www.ft.com/content/2ddb... #econsky