Steve Akehurst

Enjoyably French excerpt from a recent focus group with swing voters in the city of Tours:

"Governments are disconnected from reality, creating elitist schools. They don’t even know the price of a chocolate croissant, which shows there are two Frances"

Slightly more glamorous than a pint of milk

A bit but small sub-samples made me nervous! That notwithstanding, biggest movements were with Reform 24 & Con 24, partly I guess (?) because they had the highest base to fall from. It scattered Reform '24 vote in various directions but biggest chunk to don't know.

(and thanks for the plug btw!)

yeh i dont think it's a great look for him, esp if tied to him attending Trump rallies etc.

In general i'd say people fall into thinking he's teflon and any attack strengthens him somehow, but it's not really true - yes he is skilled but he's not *that* popular beyond a hardcore.

Which attack lines against Reform might actually work?

Fascinating discussion with @steveakehurst.bsky.social - political strategists, listen in!

This is fascinating research -

Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.

Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Thanks for sharing Sam!

🚨 How to defeat Reform - *Exclusive* with political polling analyst Steve Akehurst The New Statesman | UK politics and culture · Episode

And here's the pod if you fancy listening to Anoosh, @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and I discuss it instead! open.spotify.com/episode/7Gn8...

Here's a link to the full research persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to? Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?

Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.

strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

Ed Miliband to tell MPs who reject net zero policies they are betraying future generations Exclusive: Energy secretary’s ‘radical truth-telling’ comes as Reform plans net zero bonfire and Tories also ditch targets * ‘Profound concern’ as scientists say extreme heat ‘now the norm’ in UK Ed Miliband is to explicitly call out politicians who reject net zero policies for betraying future generations in an unprecedented update to parliament about the state of the climate crisis, which he is calling “an exercise in radical truth-telling”. With Reform UK proposing to scrap all net zero measures and even questioning the science behind climate change, and the Conservatives ditching environmental targets, Miliband hopes to regain the initiative with a stark warning to MPs. Continue reading...

Ed Miliband to tell MPs who reject net zero policies they are betraying future generations

“Brazil belongs to Brazilians”

Lula is struggling in the polls ahead of next years election. But now the latest centre-left/left incumbent to be given the gift of a Trump intervention.

Also manages to drop the word 'indubitably' in and not seem like a total arse. The GOAT

The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy Political responses to a bad situation tend towards either charlatanism or timidity

Excellent Martin Wolf column

on.ft.com/403z3jZ The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy

Pollsters split over what's happened to Labour's 2024 vote Welcome to the 1687th edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP) which starts with sincere condolences to the family and many friends of David Lipsey, who died this week. A man of many talents, he was partic...

Mark also wrote this interesting and important piece about house effects among pollsters on the Labour 2024 vote, which we touch on in the discussion - worth checking out as it's the first properly thoroughly audit of the issue: theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/pollsters-...

What's happened to those who voted Labour in 2024? Never Mind The Bar Charts · Episode

Enjoyed talking to @markpackuk.bsky.social about what's happening to the Labour vote, the various theories of what the government does about it, and much more on his great podcast.

The perfect backdrop next time you're washing the dishes....

open.spotify.com/episode/44js...

Er, another thing that might help govt - these people are just consistently a bit hopeless !

Only hope for progressives (and Labour esp) in this context is some kind of last minute tactical voting effort to stop Farage becoming PM.

But this is why Labour not excessively trolling its base in coming years is important.

Most important fact of GE24 was a highly efficient left bloc vote and fractured right.

Right now we’re drifting to a place where there’s max 2 parties of the right - with one quickly consolidating…

And four parties of the left - six if you count SNP and Plaid - all eating each others vote.

What is Britain's elusive 'national character'? The Ballad of Wallis Island might just tell us | Gaby Hinsliff Rain, cardigans and puns: a melancholic new romcom set on a windswept island hints at a relatable British identity, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff

What is Britain's elusive 'national character'? The Ballad of Wallis Island might just tell us | Gaby Hinsliff

Saw the Ballard of Wallace Island tonight and it's as beautiful as the reviews have been saying. Really funny, tender and heartbreaking - had no idea Tim key could be as moving as that, just a wonderful performance.

yes me too, will prod a bit on this in future research

I didn’t include that - given it felt like they’ve done as much on Europe as they’re likely to - but I can do next time

There are a lot of fundamentally unserious dipshits around, but what sets Musk apart is he has destroyed US foreign aid around the globe and authored probably three dozen other similarly serious real world catastrophes.

yes though also arguably the hardest to deliver in 3-4 year time horizon! or at least without raising taxes to pay for big subsidy schemes etc

yes boats is consistently more important to ppl than regular migration (or at least they say it is)

Very rarely gets attention but there's a third group which could matter a lot next time - people who didnt vote Lab in 2024 but are open to doing so next time. Here's the answers for them (and yes they exist in marginal seats)

What policy achievements would make defectors from Labour more positive about the Govt?

Depends which group. NHS & energy bills unite, but beyond that:

Defectors to Reform = small boats
Defectors to the left = taxing the rich, child poverty, Gaza.

via Opinium

Definitely here for this take but worth acknowledging America is a way more polarised / partisan place than most!

If you're looking for a weekend read, I think our study on who is turning their backs on Labour and why is quite interesting: yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

But to add some extra notes...🧵

also, this intake may not have had many far-left MPs in it but it was decidedly centre-left: largely millennial, educated, mostly drawn from progressive campaigning networks. It never going to just be lobby fodder for whatever the Treasury demanded.