Mandi Thran

Flood watch for minor to moderate flooding current. We just sent out a minor warning for Sussex Inlet and a minor-moderate for the Hawkesbury Nepean. This is a dangerous storm. Stay up to date with the latest warnings:
www.bom.gov.au/australia/wa...
www.hazardwatch.gov.au

Happening NOW! I will be tuning in on night shift 🌖

There is indeed record flooding occurring in the Manning, and the situation is severe, but this is not the worst flood ever experienced for *the entirety* the Mid North Coast. Many spots aren’t even close to March 2021 levels.

Forecasts and warnings can change on a dime, so please stay up to date if you are in the affected area, and NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATER. The majority of people who die in floods nowadays die in their cars.
BoM warnings for NSW here: www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/

Adding to the complexity here is the stalling of the system and the delivery of multiple rounds of rainfall. Renewed rises and multiple peaks make the situation much more complex. It continues to evolve very quickly, with no respite from the rain until at least Saturday

HazardWatch - Hazard Warnings View warnings issued by Australian Emergency Services.

Record flooding in the Manning, with records going back to 1929. Stay up to date with the latest warnings - and never underestimate these small coastal NSW troughs

hazardwatch.gov.au

Another busy week for flooding in Australia. Normally, the kinds of rainfall totals we’re seeing in the international models wouldn’t be *too* concerning, but these catchments are already sodden, so rivers will rise quickly to any new rain.

This likely to be the largest flood in living memory for many across the Thomson, Barcoo, and Cooper catchments in Queensland. Rivers have already passed or are expected to surpass 2000, 1990, and 1974 flood levels. River levels are still rising; we have yet to see any peaks along the main channels.

Flood warnings are likely going to continue for several weeks as these floodwaters move slowly downstream

The Thomson and Barcoo Rivers and Cooper Creeks are experiencing an incredibly significant flood right now. Possibly one of the largest in living memory for this area. Please stay up to date with the latest warnings. There’s another update coming tonight

Great piece. Three key takeaways that resonate: 1. Getting good code from an LLM is *always* an iterative process; 2. Using LLMs means I code *more* and therefore I learn at an accelerated pace about what works and what doesn’t; and 3. ALWAYS TEST what it produces because it is usually overconfident

Live: More than 250,000 without power as Alfred downgraded but flood threat continues Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been downgraded to a tropical low and is currently sitting off Bribie Island, moving slowly north.

Again, a reminder that some of the worst flood impacts from a cyclone can occur long after it makes landfall and is downgraded. The flood threat is far from over for SEQ and NE NSW.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...

THE TAKEAWAY:
Cyclone tracks and categories don’t always tell the full flood story. Keep an eye on warnings, and don’t let "downgraded" or "weakening" make you complacent about flood risk. Stay safe and stay updated.

Same with Ex-TC Debbie—it lost cyclone status after crossing the coast near Bowen, but as a tropical low, it kept moving inland, causing major flooding in SE QLD and NE NSW. At Lismore, 1,000 km south of where it initially made landfall and was downgraded, the levee was overtopped.

Take Cyclone Jasper—it made landfall as a Cat 2 but was quickly downgraded. The problem? It crawled over Cape York Peninsula, dumping most of its rain after being downgraded and causing record flooding in some locations.

*Cyclone Downgrading
*
Similarly, just because a cyclone is downgraded doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods for flooding. In fact, some of the worst flooding happens after a cyclone is no longer officially at "tropical cyclone strength".

*Cyclone Category*

We also hear a lot about cyclone category, but that only tells us one thing: mean wind speed.

As a flood forecaster, I care much more about whether a cyclone stalls. How long it lingers over a region makes all the difference when it comes to flood risk.

Rain impacts often begin days before landfall—and they persist for days afterwards.

For example, the Dorrigo Ranges on the Mid North Coast have already copped 300 mm—about 350 km away from the cyclone’s center offshore. The Bellinger River is already in minor flood. And Cyclone Alfred still hasn’t made landfall.

*Cyclone Landfall Location*


There’s always a lot of focus on where a cyclone makes landfall, which makes sense. But rain impacts start well before that.

Looking at Cyclone Alfred as a flood forecaster, I want to highlight how flood risk fits into the broader conversation about tropical cyclones. Some key points 🧵

This video is a nightmare for me to watch as a flood forecaster. The vast majority of people who die in floods die in their cars. The storm surge associated with Alfred is much, much higher than normal for this coastline making it particularly dangerous. Cars are replaceable. Lives are not.

First flood warning of TC Alfred has been sent - Minor to Major for the Bellinger in NSW.
The modelling has been startlingly consistent over several days indicating moderate to major flooding possible or even likely for many rivers across NE NSW and SE QLD.

www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings...

BoM warnings here: www.bom.gov.au/australia/wa...

NSW SES warnings including links to download Hazards Near Me app: www.ses.nsw.gov.au/northern-riv...

QLD council warnings: www.getready.qld.gov.au/find-your-lo...

QLD councils - Disaster Dashboards: www.qld.gov.au/community/di...

The story of this cyclone has been full of (literal) twists and turns.
This is a very dangerous storm that has already caused damage to the coast. Stay up to date with the latest warnings and follow the advice of emergency services.

www.bom.gov.au/aviation/?re...

We’ve got eyes on the Qld North Tropical Coast tonight. The amount of rainfall forecast tonight is nowhere near the totals we’ve seen in recent weeks. However, catchments in the NTC are very wet from recent flooding, and rivers and creeks are very responsive to even small amounts of rainfall.

Northern Territory Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
South Australia Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
Tasmania Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
New South Wales Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
Queensland Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...

I've created some feeds for all things flooding in Australia. Please like so that others can find them!

Australia Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
Victoria Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
ACT Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...
Western Australia Floods: bsky.app/profile/did:...

Cyclone likely to form off Queensland coast, BOM says Showers are forecast for much of the state's east coast today as the weather bureau monitors a tropical low in the Coral Sea.

We will certainly be keeping an eye on this over the next several days… still too early to say how it might impact the east coast

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02...