@vardamilan.bsky.social
Researcher and PhD student at https://www.fpn.bg.ac.rs/ Researcher at https://geo-power.eu/ project Researcher at https://mindproject.ac.rs/ project Reseach focused on ontological security, Russia, Wargaming
π’On May 26β27, the GEO-POWER-EU consortium held two productive days in Belgrade. Hereβs what happened π§΅
1/ A public conference was co-organized with @reunir.bsky.social on the EUβs role in the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership. Full summary here:
π shorturl.at/uBaHO
*Featured image source: Kosovo Online (screenshot/illustration).
πTrumpβs trade war may hit the Western Balkans hardβnot through direct tariffs, but via EUπͺπΊ slowdown.
Branimir JovanoviΔ (#GEOPOWEREU researcher & economist
at WIIW) explains why this could be a black swan momentβand what governments must do nowπ bit.ly/43HFREY
Such a major blow to Russiaβs strategic bomber fleet could have been avoided if Moscow had chosen to engage in peace talks, rather than escalating the war and undermining diplomatic efforts initiated by Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels.
01.06.2025 13:09 β π 1477 π 198 π¬ 29 π 7Sure, Russia will certainly escalate, likely on civilian targets and infrastructure. Potentially using fancy weapons to boost national pride and sense of greatness
01.06.2025 16:15 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0If the numbers are true this may be over 30% of Russian strategic bomber fleet. Most of them are out of production, with Tu-160 having very limited serial production, making the losses practically irreplacable
01.06.2025 16:13 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Journal of Regional Security (former Western Balkans Security Observer) is an open access peer-reviewed journal specializing in the field of regional security studies. Established in 2006 by Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, since 2012 has been co-published with UB - Faculty of Political Science.
24.11.2024 14:37 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0Engaging in brinkmanship and making red lines all the time makes threats not credible. The change of nuclear doctrine and this strike are likewise not credible. If Russia did not escalate to nuclear exchange after Kursk, it is entirely unconvincing that it would now.
22.11.2024 13:10 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Treaty is done, but this shows that Russia has been striving toward strike capability against Europeean capitals for a very long time
21.11.2024 15:39 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0This was certainly not ICBM range in this launch. Only without significant load is it at low end of the ICBM range. This is precisely the issue, as something officially called ICBM by Russia is actually an MRBM in disguise
21.11.2024 15:33 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Box
Milan
David
Board
Great sessions of Horizons wargame adjudicated by its creator David Banks (KCL) and Milan Varda (FPN) as a warm up to the Belgrade Security Conference! Si vis pacemβ¦
18.11.2024 16:25 β π 5 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0It does seem form the video that two of them fell very near each other, while others were very far. Might just be inaccurate MIRV. But having MRV would be truly outdated, and potentially telling about the quality (maybe even reliability) of other Russian delivery systems
21.11.2024 15:03 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Yep, just changing the laod changes the ranges. Tested TBM with extra load could easily become MRBM, just like this ICBM with lower load. Seems that they really want that ground launched strike ability towards Europe
21.11.2024 14:05 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0It was ICBM range but seemingly with munimal load. I agree that cassification is insignificant now (though I agree that it is IRBM or even MRBM in disguise), but it sure confirms US worries on the system's range violating the INF treaty
21.11.2024 13:58 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 3 π 0Conaidering the demonstrated operational range of the missile in the strike against Ukraine, it seems that the missile, while capable of icbm range at minimal load, is actually an mrbm in disguise of the icbm
21.11.2024 13:56 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The testing of Rubezh has brought alarms in Washington and that led to Donald Trump ultimately withdrawing from the INF treaty
21.11.2024 13:55 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The reason for this was simple. Intermediate range missiles were escalatory as they shortened the time of reaction. As such, the parties have agreed to bring an end to this type of systems and thus stopped the nuclear arming of Europe
21.11.2024 13:54 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0According to the now defunct INF treaty, US and Russia have agreed that there would be no ground launched missiles with a range of over 500 and below 5500 kilometers
21.11.2024 13:52 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0With full load, its range is almost certainly lower, with some tests showing roughly 2000 kilometer range
21.11.2024 13:50 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0This missile has a femonstrated range of over 5500 kilometers, but with a very limited load
21.11.2024 13:50 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0It seems that Russia has launched an ICBM, likely RS-26 Rubezh into Ukraine. Here is a brief thread on it
21.11.2024 13:49 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 6 π 0It could easily be the infamous RS-26 Rubezh, a missile of potential icbm range, but more like irbm or mrbm at full load
21.11.2024 13:46 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
