James Carroll

Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estimate worse than exponential model — LessWrong This is a response to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mXa66dPR8hmHgndP5/hyperbolic-trend-with-upcoming-singularity-fits-metr which claims that a hype…

www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEuDH2...

Just how much we don't know about what will come next for AI, brilliantly illustrated in only two figures...

Fuck the anti vaxer bull shit crowd to hell... Which is a pretty extreme statement for a Universalist who normally thinks that no one deserves to burn in hell.

I'm considering changing my mind about that.

My brother had the anti vax mind virus bad... Then got covid really bad... Then got covid pneumonia... Started to recover... And then last night had a heart attack... He's now in the hospital in intensive care.

2025, I have good reason to suspect that you and I are going to have some issues. But at least we are starting things off on the right foot!

I'm sorry!

@regenceutah.bsky.social : get this done.

Real news is on the BBC.

I just found out that around 20% of the neanderthal genome still exists today in living people!!

No individual person has more than 3 or 4% but we don't all have the same bits. If you add up all the bits we've found, about a fifth of the Neanderthal genome is still present on earth today.

I'm so sorry Beth.

Give me a call if you actually want to know what it's going under the hood.

Granted. But those experiences are encoded in the weights of our neutral network.

The differences may be a lot smaller than we think.

I think this misunderstands how the human brain works, and how similar it actually is to generative language models. We know the capital of a country because.... That's the most likely answer given our training set (experiences).

The Pentagon Papers of Pete Hegseth Trump's New Secretary of Civil War Meets the Press

I gathered up my reading notes on the deeply fascist new book by Trump's Defense Secretary pick, Pete Hegseth, on my substack, Scenes from a Slow Civil War. I think I may rev that thing up again, too. Please consider subscribing. slowcivilwar.substack.com/p/the-pentag...

So um... I'm here?