Øyvind Skorge

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

State Action and Moral Attitudes toward Sexual Consent | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

📢 New Article
👥 Eli Sofie Baltzersen @elibaltz.bsky.social (ISV), Francesca R. Jensenius @fr-jensenius.bsky.social (ISV), & Øyvind Søraas Skorge
👉 State Action and Moral Attitudes toward Sexual Consent
📗 Published in The Journal of Politics
🔗 doi.org/10.1086/737554

Even subtle online rumors about out-group can ⬆️ resentment & conflict-related emotions. Results from large pre-registered experiment out in
@cpsjournal.bsky.social
, with Mathilde B. Mjelva,
@sschutte.bsky.social
, Helga M. Binningsbø.
@statsvitenskap.bsky.social @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social

Screen shot of the title and abstract of the article I am talking about

Very happy to be able to share the polling-level dataset on Indian Parliamentary Elections 2009, 2014, 2019 that we have been working on for more than a decade. Both the data and the data descriptor are open access: rdcu.be/eujHH

@statsvitenskap.bsky.social @unioslo-svfak.bsky.social

Thrilled that the first paper in my PhD thesis “State Action and Moral Attitudes toward Sexual Consent”, co-authored with Francesca R. Jensenius and @oskorge.bsky.social , has been accepted for publication in the @thejop.bsky.social! 1/

It’s been so exciting to work on this registered report with Eli and Francesca. Happy to see it out in the JOP. And the registered report format has been absolutely amazing.

Kronikk i dagens Aftenposten 👇

Contrary to Marx, our latest research indicate labor conflict results in lower rates of mechanization.

🚨 New #EconHistory research alert!
Our paper “Strikes & Machines: Investment decisions in inter‑war Norway” conditionally accepted in Journal of Economic History ask
"What did strike threats really do to technology?"
👇 1/6

Hvordan kunne valgresultatet fra norske kommunevalg bare forsvinne? Her er den utrolige historien.

Les om den utrolige historien om hvordan vi har klart å rekonstruere de tapte norske kommunevalgene før 1937 www.forskning.no/politikk-sta...

Interview with me on our work in reconstructing the lost Norwegian local elections before 1937.

Meninger: Ja til venstresidemannen! I min egen iver etter å anerkjenne kvinners likestillingsutfordringer, har jeg vært blind for den positive rollen vi menn kan spille i kraft av å være menn.

Min kollega @oskorge.bsky.social har skrevet om mannsidealer og venstresida. Bravo, sier jeg, vi må ha et mer inkluderende mannsideal som ikke bygger på nedarvet skam, men gode, praktiske evner til empati og tilstedeværelse.

www.vg.no/nyheter/i/8q...

Please share this fact sheet on Ukraine with anyone who needs it

understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Mala was a true force of nature. As a person and in her uncompromising scholarship. She will be deeply missed. Such a privilege to have known her.

In Memoriam

Mala Htun (1969-2025)

Mala Htun made a major impact on the study of women, gender, and politics as a scholar, teacher, mentor, and advocate. To honor her contributions, we have ungated access to her articles until the end of February 2025.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Anyone who thinks that when businesses complain about a competition regulator, siding with the businesses is to be growth-friendly, makes a huge mistake. Competition is good for growth AND disliked by businesses (who must work harder to do well). Wanting to make businesses happy will lower growth.

**New working paper**

How does the under-representation of females in Economics affect the career trajectory of female Ph.D. students?

Sahar Parsa and I look at this in a new working paper by exploring sabbatical leaves taken by female professors at top-50 US Econ departments.

Hi!

I am looking for examples on how to best integrate LLMs/ChatGPT into teaching in the social sciences. I was wondering if anyone has any ideas on how to best do this? This could be exercises or things that worked well in their own teaching.

"The Dilemma of Gender Equality: How Labor Market Regulation Divides Women by Class" - Iversen, Rosenbluth & @oskorge.bsky.social
On the interesting unintended consequences of working hour regulation on gender inequality in top management.
doi.org/10.1162/daed...

Job Market - Bocconi University Recruiting, Faculty, Post-doc Grant, Collaboration Contracts

#Polisky folks: Bocconi University is looking for AP in Environmental Politics & Policy 🌏

Offer: Great group of political scientists working at awesome social science university in a fabulous city 🙌

🚨 Deadline: 30th of November

Please share 🔁

Apply 🔗 & ℹ️ : jobmarket.unibocconi.eu?type=&dep=SPS