Francesco Sassi

A direct link to the analysis
📜 rebrand.ly/RE3342

🚨Recent security and deterrence initiatives by🇩🇰Denmark &🇫🇷France are showing increasing risks for🇷🇺Russian crude oil exports from the Baltic Sea, with serious implications for the stability of the global oil markets and the Kremlin.

Read my analysis
📜https://rebrand.ly/RE3342

To further explore the geopolitics of the energy transition consider following my blog
➡️The Oil & Gas U-Turn of New Zealand
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3279
➡️The Chinese Solar Industry is Bleeding and Beijing Must Act
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3010

Whereas Chinese solar panel producers have been increasingly fighting and overcompeting each other with lower costs, urging Beijing to intervene directly in the market, China will be a major country profiting from the availability of more hydrocarbons exported from Africa.

generation systems and output grows for homes, small businesses, and agricultural appliances.
Paradoxically, this could also free more oil and gas for major producers and exporters in the continent, sometimes using valuable commodities to feed underdiversified national systems.

energy sources.
The demand for off-grid, affordable energy booms where Africans cannot afford to pay for expensive electricity, imported gas, or simply have no access to electricity services due to disrupted and malfunctioning grids.
The affordability of decentralised energy

From
🇿🇦South Africa
to
🇳🇬Nigeria
and
🇩🇿Algeria
African imports of Chinese solar panels have been on the rise this year and it represents a continental phenomenon, not just a single country trend. It signals an expanding interdependence based on domestic incentives to diversify

🤝The energy interdependence between🌍Africa and🇨🇳China is one of the single most important and undervalued variable when considering the future of the energy transition
🧵

Explore the energy geopolitics of the🇪🇺EU subscribe in my blog
➡️Hungary and Slovakia are Building a Gas Block in the Hearth of Europe
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3306
➡️Nuclear, Data Centers, and Renewables: All Political Headaches of the New French PM Lecornu
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3218

coalition partners advocate for increased welfare spending and reducing foreign aid, including donations to Ukraine.
In these years, Prague organised a secretive programme that sources ammunition for Ukraine. In 2024 alone it delivered to Kyiv 1.5 million artillery shells...

But what surprises the most is the comprehensive opposition by all these parties to the support for Ukraine, with the Czech Republic having welcomed 400,000 Ukrainians since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
While declaring himself a pro-NATO politician, Babis' ANO and

consensus and rightwing Motorists, a party made of drivers(🤯) which received 6.8% of votes and which is explicitly against:
-Green politics, it supports coal
-Liberalism, it supports the Czech crown against EU integration
-Progressivism, it wants to abolish all bicycle lanes

At great distance, pro-western coalition of the current Czech prime minister, Petr Fiala, won 23.0%
Babis is a self-proclaimed Trumpist and the likeliest buddies in a future government will be the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), an anti-immigration party with 8% of the

Prague will likely join a bloc of countries in the Centre-East of Europe opposed to many major policy decisions implemented by Brussels, starting with the decarbonisation of energy systems and the support to Kyiv against Moscow.
Babis’s ANO (YES) party won 35% of the vote.

🚨🇨🇿Czech Republic joins the anti-🇪🇺EU, anti🇺🇦Ukraine, and Green Deal skeptic countries in the East-Central Europe

In Saturday's elections, the populist billionaire Andrej Babis's party won 35% of the consensus and he opened to an unprecedented coalition with far-right forces
🧵

To further explore the geopolitics of the energy transition
➡️Milei's Political Crisis and Argentina's Energy Missteps
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3321
➡️Nuclear, Data Centers, and Renewables: All Political Headaches of the New French PM Lecornu
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3218

transition, says the ENTSO-E report is "completely in line" with the results of Madrid's investigation, concluding that both the national grid provider Red Eléctrica and private electricity companies were at fault. At the same time, both are rejecting the government's accusations

energy security framework to ensure our systems are fit for the future," other investigations are ongoing by the Spanish government and the national energy watchdog.
Deflecting away from the government the responsibility of the incident, Sara Aagesen, the minister for ecological

security under a shifting scenario where more power sources are called to contribute to the state's demand.
While the EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen says "The European Commission is already working on a review of the EU’s

Data from several organisations were impossible to be collected by ENTSO-E as eight Spanish generation companies, the most relevant ones, refused to share info.
The same unwillingness to cooperate calls policymakers to define new ways of understanding energy and electricity

reboot the system automatically, which also emphasises the needs for "every power generation to have voltage control" and urges policymakers to adopt innovation in the regulation which will likely require a significant change of how the power generation landscape works in Spain.

in the🇫🇷French Basque Country.
According to the 264-page long report, a "cascading overvoltage" occurred, meaning a power spike which triggers additional spikes like a chain reaction and spreading to other parts of the system. A major failure was the grid system inability to

“It has never happened before in Europe, this is new territory, the first of its kind,” said Damian Cortinas, the chairman of ENTSO-E while presenting the report about the last April blackout affecting the lives of 60 millions of Spanish and Portoguese people, plus some living

🚨The Report by ENTSO-E about the🇪🇸🇵🇹Iberian blackout is already a political case

As a "first of its kind," nobody wants to be blamed as the responsible for the largest energy disruption in Europe occurred in the last two decades
🧵

To further explore the implications of the energy geopolitics of the🇷🇺Russia🇺🇦Ukraine conflict
➡️Hungary and Slovakia are Building a Gas Block in the Hearth of Europe
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE3306
➡️Russia Aims at Ukraine's Gas Insulation
🫴https://rebrand.ly/RE2927

of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles was intended "against companies of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine and gas and energy infrastructure facilities that provided their work."
The🇷🇺🇺🇦Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be a major Energy War

region temperatures are well below the seasonal average. After the attack, blackouts were experienced in various provinces and cities in the East, worsening already dire situations for Ukrainians living there.
The Russian army justifies the attack stating that the strike

been damaged. Some of the destruction is critical" and Russia had no reason to attack gas sites, accusing them of acting "solely at disrupting the heating season and depriving Ukrainians of the ability to heat their homes this winter." Winter has just started, and yet in the

company, says that facilities in Kharkiv and Poltava regions were hit with 35 missiles, many of them ballistic, along with 60 drones. These two regions account for a vast proportion of Ukraine's gas production and according to Naftogaz "a significant portion of our facilities has

According to Ukraine's air force, last night and this morning 6 regions of the country were attacked with a total of 381 drones and 35 missiles, an enormous number of vectors launched massively against infrastructures aimed at natural gas production.
Naftogaz, the state-owned