Sam Winter-Levy

Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please.

Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes.
Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. "
@foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful.

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

Full piece here; @carnegieendowment.org: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

And there's no room for complacency. Rapid AI takeoffs could cross unforeseen thresholds. States should stress-test nuclear systems for AI-related vulnerabilities, build AI/nuclear expertise, and calibrate messaging about the stakes of the AGI race.

None of this is to say AI will pose no risks to nuclear stability. The moves states make to shore up their second strike capabilities—building more weapons, reducing decision timelines, delegating authority—may be destabilizing and dangerous.

Nuclear deterrence will likely hold, and the coercive leverage that advanced AI affords states (against rivals with well postured nuclear forces) will thus face major limits.

Even with highly capable AI systems, states will struggle to be confident of simultaneous success against multiple legs of a nuclear triad, with limited data, limited options for testing, and no room for error.

Tracking launchers at scale is very challenging, the physics of missile defense are brutal, states will do everything they can to protect their command and control systems.

In all three domains, as we document, AI can likely help. But in all three domains, AI will also face serious constraints.

So could AI erode nuclear deterrence? Theoretically, yes, through three mechanisms: 1. Increased ability to track nuclear platforms (subs and road-mobile launchers); 2. increased ability to tamper with command-and-control systems; 3. improved missile defense.

The US economy is 15x Russia's and 1000x North Korea's, yet the US's influence over them is limited, to put it mildly.

Obviously AI will matter a lot. But unless it erodes nuclear deterrence, no matter how many economic/military advantages it may bring, states will face major constraints in dealing with nuclear armed adversaries.

An increasing number of analysts claim AGI will entirely transform international politics, giving a decisive strategic advantage to the state that possesses it—an advantage akin to complete military and political dominance.

The End of Mutual Assured Destruction? What AI will mean for nuclear deterrence.

In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.

The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.”

But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...

Assessing the Trump Administration’s AI Action Plan Unpacking the Trump administration's AI Action Plan — what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.

The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI.

@samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next.

#AIActionPlan

The Just Security Podcast: Decoding Trump’s AI Playbook: The AI Action Plan and What Comes Next Joshua Geltzer, Jenny Marron and Sam Winter-Levy join Brianna Rosen on the show to discuss the Trump administration's U.S. AI Action Plan.

The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan.

Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead.

www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...

The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.

Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually?

Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social‬ and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them.

Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...

The Nvidia Chip Deal Trades Away the United States’ AI Advantage Right when the Trump administration should be ramping up export controls, its trade strategy is undermining them.

In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:

Opinion | The gulf is not the place to build the world’s AI infrastructure Drone threats make the UAE and Saudi Arabia the wrong homes for critical AI data centers.

Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe

What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.

What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world?

@samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:

What Comes Next After Trump’s AI Deals in the Gulf Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the AI race.

Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race.

Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next.

www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...

How to Gauge Whether Trump’s AI Chip Deals With Gulf Countries Are Any Good Several key factors will hint at whether Trump used the United States’ considerable leverage around AI to minimize risk.

AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks?

Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:

Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...

Some thoughts from me in the
@washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...