A Wild Lib Appeared

I should add that in recent years in CA, the GOP return rate has ended up higher than the Dem return rate. So the fact the Dem rate is higher with only a few days until election day is a really good sign.

GOP voters sometimes grow at the very end, but this #Prop50 race seems unsalvageable for them.

Also in our new Digest:
• Maryland governor isn't giving up on redistricting despite big setback.
• Former FBI agent joins Democratic primary for Texas attorney general.
• Five new polls all show Mikie Sherrill ahead, but they VERY much disagree if she's running away with it or if this is a tossup.

California #Prop50 update:

Over the last few days, the Dem share of votes cast grew to 51.5%, rounding up to 52% in PDI's report.

Meanwhile, GOP share is down to 27.3%.

Dem return rate is 27.7%. GOP return is 26.1%. That gap has grown from under 1% to over 1.5%.

Dems are WAY overperforming 2024.

So w/o the VRA, Dems could flip 9 seats from GOP to Dem through CA and VA redistricting, more than offsetting 3-6 seats lost in NC and TX.

MO's map likely gets paused by referendum.

OH compromised with Dems on their map.

FL, IN, KS can steal ~6 seats. Thus, at best, w/o VRA end, GOP nets 3 seats.

Of those four, CA is about to pass Prop 50, which should give Dems 4 or 5 more seats.

VA seems likely to move forward, but legal battles could delay redistricting. That gets another 4 seats.

The state legislatures in MD and IL are resisting redistricting, but they only have 1 seat each to give.

Most Dem states are maxed out (MA, CT, NM, OR, WA, and NV already have almost all Dem seats), are too swingy, or have state constitutions that prevent redistricting & no way to amend before the midterms.

CA, VA, IL, and MD are the states that can, and a court case is forcing UT to draw a Dem seat.

Here are the states controlled by the GOP that could take away predominantly minority House seats, all held by Dems:

MS - 1
AL - 1 or 2
GA - 2
TN - 1
SC - 1 maybe
LA - 2

The GOP could net ~5 from other redistricting efforts. But if the nation swings 15% toward Dems, 15 seats won't save the GOP.

Because getting rid of the VRA *does* make it harder for Dems to win control of the House. Worse yet, it means minority groups become less represented in Congress and in red states.

But the total number seats that the GOP could take of the table is limited. I did a quick count: it's 10 seats max...

If SCOTUS ends the VRA with enough time for red states to redistrict for midterms, there is a path for Dems to win back the House--especially if VA and CA go through with their redistricting.

No VRA only takes another 6 to 8 seats off the table; up to 50 are competitive in blue tsunami territory.

There is no way out of this mess without suffering.

But if we get rid of the filibuster, there is a realistic path to restoring American democracy.

Trump getting rid of the filibuster would be the only good thing he's ever done.

3 reasons you should be following @burness.bsky.social right now.

well, it's really all one reason — how hard he's been reporting and working to inform you on tuesday's elections.

1. he wrote the best piece of the year on Pennsylvania's supreme court races: bsky.app/profile/burn...

2. he wrote the best piece of the year on Maine's conservative referendum to restrict mail voting: bsky.app/profile/burn...

Beyond the Ballot Quiz - The Survey Center on American Life

Take this quiz to die instantly www.americansurveycenter.org/quiz/

a man is talking to a woman and the words well a girl could dream are visible ALT: a man is talking to a woman and the words well a girl could dream are visible

Oh, will this be the year that I finally win the babka?

Enter The Downballot's 2025 prediction contest, sponsored by GreensBabka.com! To the victors go the spoils!

It's the most delicious time of the year: The Downballot's annual election prediction contest—aka the babka contest—is back!

Enter to prove your prognostication prowess *and* for the chance to win amazing prizes from our sponsor, Green's Babka!

Good luck, one and all!

L. Louise Lucas (@SenLouiseLucas)

Really wish L. Louis Lucas would join Bluesky so I could reskeet her memes.

Can anybody in @vademocrats.bsky.social persuade her to join? #virginia #vapol #redistricting

fxtwitter.com/senlouiseluc...

NYC Mayor's Race: Mamdani 43%, Cuomo 33%, Sliwa 14%, Undecided 6%, Quinnipiac University New York City Poll Finds; Stark Generational Divide Among NYC's Likely Voters | Quinnipiac University Poll "The candidates have made their case, early voting is underway, Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains. The percentage of like...

The Quinnipiac University Poll just released a New York City Mayor poll:

Zohran Mamdani 43%
Sex Pest Cuomo 33%
Curtis Silwa 14%
Undecided 6%
Refused 3%

911 LVs, +/- 4% MOE

I'm hopeful that @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social becomes mayor of NYC! #nyc #nycmayor #nypol #nycpol

poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

🙃

It is the expected norm.

The few people who aren't or are resisting (such as Schumer) are the ones defying the norm. And they're going to end up with egg on their faces in the long run.

But even that's not true. Most Democratic politicians in New York have endorsed Mamdani.

a man in a black shirt says we 're all of us monsters . ALT: a man in a black shirt says we 're all of us monsters .

I don't know how to break this to you, bro, but we ARE the Democratic Party.

I cannot tell you how many tech journalists at prominent media organizations do not understand this

Netanyahu Orders Strikes in Gaza, as Israel Says Hamas Violated Cease-Fire

Welp. Totally predictable.

If this flare up prevents Trump from winning his Nobel Peace prize, can the committee in Oslo give him a consolation prize?

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/w...

...and the voters who will elect him are Democrats.

Numerous polls have Cuomo getting higher levels of support from Republicans than Democrats, while Mamdani wins the overwhelming majority of Democrats in NYC.

Yes, those leaders matter. But the voters of New York City matter a lot more, and the Democrats of the city are voting for Mamdani overwhelmingly.

wondering if Cal Prop 50 will pass? Most likely yes. Good post with details for the detail oriented.

Interesting thread on California ballot returns thus far...

Nice