Stephen Wolf

Brazilian police arrest Bolsonaro amid suspicions he was about to flee Politician reportedly taken from his villa into custody at a federal police base about 7 miles from presidential palace

"Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been arrested at his villa in the capital, Brasília, amid suspicions he was poised to abscond to a foreign embassy to avoid going to prison for masterminding a military coup."

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...

The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde

After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.

European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!

Me in @theguardian.com

UPDATE: Justice Alito Grants Administrative Stay: Texas Files Emergency Supreme Court Motion to Stay District Court Order Throwing Out 2026 Gerrymandered Maps for Congressional Elections; Justice Alit... The State of Texas, as expected, has filed an application for a stay at the Supreme Court of the 2-1 racial gerrymandering decision issued earlier this week (over a fiery dissent by Judge Smith). Just...

FWIW, Prof. @rickhasen.bsky.social believes it "likely" the Court will "put the district court ruling on ice" in the Texas gerrymander case. One big issue: the timing crunch.

Q: Are you affirming that you think President Trump is a fascist?

MAMDANI: I've spoken about--

TRUMP: That's okay. You can just say yes. I don't mind.

VA Dems are already proceeding with a referendum that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2026 once lawmakers pass it again in January & if voters approve it in April.

NJ Dem lawmakers could use a referendum & CO voters could use an initiative next November to enable new maps for 2028

Poll: Voters support gerrymandering to win the midterms A majority of both Democrats and Republicans support redrawing congressional districts to give their side a boost next year.

New poll finds Dem voters broadly want independent redistricting but favor passing new maps to neutralize GOP gerrymanders.

California's prop 50 was unprecedented but easily passed due to Trump.

2026 is an opportune time for ballot measures in VA, NJ, & CO that would empower Dems to draw new maps

The court is very unlikely to force through a pro-GOP map even if it overturns an 8-0 map. It’s the norm for legislators to get a second chance to draw a compliant map as happened in 2022. They’d likely just revert to the current map for 2026 because a plaintiff would need to challenge it separately

No it isn’t, not when Republicans are passing more extreme maps in several states

It’s also why it’s ridiculous that state legislatures get to control congressional redistricting and the rules governing federal elections, but this is the system we have for now

“We can’t do congressional restricting because it could give our primary challengers more time to campaign against us” … is exactly why these Maryland Dems deserve to be primaried.

If they can’t be persuaded to put fighting back against Republican power grabs ahead of self interest, they need to go

Ms. Velázquez, 72, cited the calls for generational change in her party, acknowledging that she had considered retiring for the last few years. But after Zohran Mamdani’s success in the November mayoral election, she felt confident that a new cohort would continue her efforts. “I love this work and I love my district, but I believe now is the right moment to step aside and allow a new generation of leaders to step forward,” she said in an emotional phone interview from her office in Washington. “After devoting so much energy and so much time to help elect young leaders, I feel at ease,” she added, pointing to Mr. Mamdani’s election.

Props to Rep. Nydia Velazquez. This is exactly the right approach from a longtime member of Congress in their 70s. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/n...

Four Republican legislators in Indiana have been targeted in "swatting" attempts just days after Trump called for primaries against those who opposed re-gerrymandering the congressional map.

Trump's supporters take him literally and seriously when he advocates political violence

#UPDATE: A fourth Indiana Senate Republican has experienced a swatting attempt amid the legislature's contentious mid-decade redistricting fight. www.indystar.com/story/…

Not the point of @gelliottmorris.com piece, but look at this divide among Republicans on social issues. Half of them look like normal people and the other half are way out of step with the rest of the country. There’s a bit of a mirror on the left but much smaller.

Police thwart 'swatting' attempt of 3rd Indiana lawmaker, amid Trump's redistricting push Sen. Spencer Deery was notified that someone had falsely reported domestic abuse at his address and threatened violence to officers who responded.

#NEW: A third Republican senator from Indiana has been targeted in a swatting incident the morning of Nov. 20 as pressure on redistricting holdouts continues to mount. www.indystar.com/story/…

NJ Senate President Nick Scutari claims Dems are "not in a position" to pass a constitutional amendment that would allow them to redraw the state's congressional map.

But Dems have supermajorities in both chambers & *gained* seats this month. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...

Important: It's been a week, & Utah Republicans *have not filed an appeal* on the judge's decision to toss out the map they tried adopting, & choose one submitted by the plaintiffs.

And they're signaling they're not going to do so with an eye to changing it for 2026: kutv.com/news/local/u...

“It Just Feels Like Death”: Barrage of New Rules Target Arkansas Ballot Initiatives - Bolts It’s a familiar sight in Arkansas: Canvassers stop passersby in front of a local grocery store or town library and ask them if they’d be willing to sign a petition... Read More

A win for democracy advocates in Arkansas:

This spring, I wrote the GOP had passed a real barrage of laws there to effectively kill the ballot initiative process. See below.

A federal judge yesterday granted a preliminary injunction against many of the laws: arkansasadvocate.com/2025/11/19/j...

Trump has urged Republicans to re-gerrymander Indiana's congressional map, but a critical number of GOP legislators have opposed it. He recently called for primary challenges against specific legislators, & now this happens twice.

Political violence is essential to Trump's goal of ending democracy

This dissent supporting the Texas GOP's racial gerrymandering reads like it's from some right-wing PR flack, but the author is federal appellate judge appointed by Ronald Reagan

exciting as the potential overturning of this awful map is, it's worth noting that the 2021 map is *still* a gerrymander, just a less egregious one

That isn’t too little time for issuing stay, and they could delay the primary like in 2012 if they needed to

Morning Digest: Court blocks new Texas map, dealing surprise blow to Republicans An appeal is already underway, but the GOP's redistricting push could backfire massively

Republicans got some sudden and unexpected bad news Tuesday when a three-judge federal court blocked Texas from using its new GOP-drawn congressional districts. Our new Digest examines why a Trump appointee made this momentous ruling and what it does—and doesn't—mean for the redistricting wars.

Yes, but I’m talking strictly about the effects of new maps, not the overall result. If Dems are winning the House vote by even half that much, they could have flipped the aforementioned 4 seats in CA and 2 in VA on the old maps

I’m still skeptical that redistricting will backfire on Republicans in 2026. Dems already could’ve flipped 4 seats in CA & 2 in VA on the old maps, but the GOP has targeted more seats it was unlikely to win.

Two years ago, folks thought Dems would gain from 2024 remaps, but instead they lost a seat

It isn’t over yet, and a Supreme Court ruling gutting the VRA could still happen in time for several red states to pass new gerrymanders next year.

But so far, Trump’s scheme to rig redistricting is faltering thanks to Democrats fighting back and Republicans spooked by blowout losses in NJ & VA

Some additional context: Of the 19 GOP senators who voted to adjourn today rather than rush a new congressional map, 10 aren't up until 2028 (so they're more shielded from the threat of Trump-backed primaries). And 2 more, whose seat is up in 2026, had already said they're retiring.

New: Reuters has tallied job losses, suspensions and investigations stemming from the reaction to Charlie Kirk's Sept. 10 assassination. Its findings: More than 600 Americans have been punished, and the figure is likely to be an under-count.

www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Wouldn't be surprised if SCOTUS stays this PI until it decides Callais, then blocks a new PI under Purcell. (IOW: don't get too excited.)