Stephen Wolf

When Republicans do it / When Democrats do it

Breaking: Democrats resoundingly defend red district in Louisiana, denying GOP its first pickup Republicans have yet to flip a single legislative seat since Trump's return

The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.

Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.

Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->

That could just be a convenient excuse. Note that VA-03 and VA-04 weren’t drawn as a result of VRA litigation but because the GOP racially gerrymandered and it got struck down when a Dem had veto power.

After a court redrew the map last decade, VA-04 was majority white and VA-03 was plurality white

I don’t see any legal basis for that.

Racial gerrymandering violations are when race predominates over other criteria without a legitimate government interest, and the Voting Rights Act doesn’t set % targets, just whatever lets a minority group elect its preferred candidates. 40% would be fine here

Given that they could afford only one Senate defection, I’d imagine that a couple of members insisted on this configuration (or House members did)

On the contrary, there’s almost certainly no VRA reason for doing this, so setting an arbitrary target of plurality Black could open it up to a racial gerrymandering challenge if that’s what they did

I highly doubt it. SCOTUS has made those nearly impossible to win when lawmakers claim partisanship as the reason such as in the recent Texas case

Maybe so! But that still isn’t a good reason for leaving it next to a Harris+31 seat

Keeping VA-03 dark blue isn’t needed to ensure Black voters can elect their preferred candidates, either.

My hypothetical map below lowers the Black adult population % by 3 points, but since it also drops from Harris+31 to Harris+17, the Black % of a Dem primary would remain as high if not higher

There’s no good strategic reason for how Virginia Democrats drew districts 2 and 3.

3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott or Dem legislators who want to run to succeed the 78-year-old incumbent whenever he retires seemingly wanted to keep it heavily blue for their own self interest at the 2nd’s expense

Virginia Dems' congressional map would likely go 10-1 Dem in a Dem wave, but it has one big flaw: VA-02 is just Harris+1 while neighboring VA-03 wastes Dems at Harris+31.

On this hypothetical map, VA-03 would stay plurality-Black while VA-02 would be Harris+7: davesredistricting.org/join/cbfa749...

Prosecutors Began Investigating Renee Good’s Killing. Washington Told Them to Stop.

You should read this. It is the type of detail that experts in authoritarian regimes see as telling.
In this case, state agents are offered impunity from higher ups, and the legal system is rendered inoperative as a mode of accountability.
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/u...

House Republicans’ voter suppression bill now bans student IDs from counting as voter ID.

Many Republican states have done this to target students with their voter ID laws

I'm sorry the guy changing the rules on the fly is named what

Congressional Democrats tried to ban gerrymandering nationwide with bills in 2019 and 2021.

Rob Wittman and every other Republican voted against them to defeat that ban

on the balance i think partisan gerrymandering is bad but the only way it ends is if democrats weaponize it against republicans everywhere they can. wiping out republican lawmakers in blue states might bring the GOP to the table to end the practice.

Republicans on SCOTUS: No, we won’t ban gerrymandering.

Republicans in Congress: No, Democrats can’t ban gerrymandering.

Donald Trump: Every red state must gerrymander mid-decade for partisan gain.

Republicans in media: How dare California and Virginia do this to us?

208. The Fifth Circuit Jumps the Immigration Detention Shark Late Friday, two of the nation's most right-wing circuit judges adopted an odious legal claim that district court judges from across the country (and ideological spectrum) have overwhelmingly rejected

“Late Friday night, the Fifth Circuit adopted the extreme minority view—that the government can indefinitely detain without bond millions of non-citizens who have been here for generations; who have never committed a crime; and who pose neither a risk of flight nor any threat to public safety.”

“Partisanship is inherent and permissible in the legislative districting process” — Ted Cruz in September, in an amicus brief supporting the Texas gerrymander. www.cornyn.senate.gov/wp-content/u...

As of right now, yes, but if the state Supreme Court retains any independence, then likely no.

Organizers almost certainly submitted enough signatures to suspend the map until the vote, but Republican officials are claiming it stays in effect until they’ve verified signatures, so it’s in court

FWIW, I did a short thread on this

I don’t, but based on my experience looking at maps, I think we’re nowhere near that. Gerrymanders failing, yes, but not backfiring.

Texas would probably need a Dem shift of (very) roughly 23 points to start favoring Dems over a nonpartisan map since the underlying geography favors Dems there

Consequently, the national map could become the fairest it’s been in decades just judging by the presidential results, but because 2026 is likely to be a Dem wave, the new maps could still help Republicans this year by raising the GOP’s floor.

The 2026 national map is far from settled, though

… 2026 will likely favor Dems much more than 2024 did.

Thus, we must consider how the old maps would have fared, not just how many seats each new map targeted. The GOP targeted more seats they were unlikely to win in a Dem wave.

Even in VA, Dems could flip 2 of their 4 target seats on the 2024 map

Republicans passed new House gerrymanders in MO, NC, OH, & TX.

Dems passed a new CA map, & a court also replaced UT’s GOP map with a fairer map.

Add VA, & the national map goes from 205 Kamala Harris seats to 211, & the median seat shifts left from Trump+3.1 to +1.8. A clear gain for Dems.

But…

If Virginia Dems’ congressional map becomes law, the national House map may become MORE favorable to Dems by 2024 president, suggesting Trump’s mid-decade gerrymandering plot backfired.

However, new maps overall may simultaneously be better for Republicans in a Dem wave election.

Here’s why 🧵

VA Gov. Spanberger (moderate, was in CIA) and NYC Mayor Mamdani (left, is in DSA) both taking steps to block local law enforcement from helping ICE as it violently violates people's rights is a good example of how the relevant divide in the Dem coalition isn't center-left, it's fight-don't fight.

Social democracy should be an internationalist movement again to counter the growing far-right international regardless of whether she’s running for president

it's a little funny to see the freakout over the virginia maps when the justification that Texas gave for its new maps - which never went to voters for approval - was "trump won a mandate in 2024 so we need to enshrine that new reality into our maps, sorry Dems, deal with it."

Here's @rickhasen.bsky.social detailing the scenario in which Trump uses search warrant to seize ballot boxes in a contested 2026 locale. This is more worrisome than ICE at the polls. Hasen also suggests ways to act against this now.

It's harrowing stuff:

newrepublic.com/article/2062...