David Smith

It’s time to go Dutch to solve Britain’s housing crisis Using public corporations to finance infrastructure promises to revolutionise the nation’s prospects

My Times piece: We can learn from the Netherlands on how better to finance infrastructure spending and more house building, without spooking the markets:

It’s time to go Dutch to solve Britain’s housing crisis

www.thetimes.com/article/ce46...

Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts Rachel Reeves should avoid making the UK less transparent than competitor economies by cutting down the number of official forecasts

A brief history of the UK's two official economic forecasts a year, and why we still need them.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts Rachel Reeves should avoid making the UK less transparent than competitor economies by cutting down the number of official forecasts

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has hinted at cutting official forecasts to one a year, which would be a mistake. Just treat one of the OBR’s two forecasts as advisory, not a call for immediate action:

Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts

www.thetimes.com/article/6040...

Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts Rachel Reeves should avoid making the UK less transparent than competitor economies by cutting down the number of official forecasts

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has hinted at cutting official forecasts to one a year, which would be a mistake. Just treat one of the OBR’s two forecasts as advisory, not a call for immediate action:

Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts

www.thetimes.com/article/6040...

Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth US economy is showing signs of resilience but an employment slowdown suggests a hidden cost to Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff policies

My Times piece: Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t crashed the economy - they take time to work through - but they are slowly damaging it:

Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth

www.thetimes.com/article/b0fd...

Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth US economy is showing signs of resilience but an employment slowdown suggests a hidden cost to Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff policies

My Times piece: Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t crashed the economy - they take time to work through - but they are slowly damaging it:

Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth

www.thetimes.com/article/b0fd...

Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget? The chancellor could go down the path of least resistance with make-do-and-mend measures, or undertake some serious tax reform

Will Reeves reach for a grab bag of tax raisers that further complicate system, or set out a proper tax strategy, including some least economically damaging tax rises, even if going against one of Labour’s manifesto commitments?
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget? The chancellor could go down the path of least resistance with make-do-and-mend measures, or undertake some serious tax reform

My Sunday Times piece: The budget process will get going when the OBR presents its first forecast next Friday. Will the chancellor, under pressure, opt for a “make do and mend” budget or go for something bolder?

Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget?

www.thetimes.com/article/ba9e...

Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget? The chancellor could go down the path of least resistance with make-do-and-mend measures, or undertake some serious tax reform

My Sunday Times piece: The budget process will get going when the OBR presents its first forecast next Friday. Will the chancellor, under pressure, opt for a “make do and mend” budget or go for something bolder?

Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget?

www.thetimes.com/article/ba9e...

High expectations make it harder to get inflation down When consumers expect prices to rise sharply, it becomes more likely to happen

My Times piece: People expect inflation to stay high - their expectations are “elevated” - and that adds to the challenge of getting it back down to the 2% target again:

High expectations make it harder to get inflation down

www.thetimes.com/article/b71d...

High expectations make it harder to get inflation down When consumers expect prices to rise sharply, it becomes more likely to happen

My Times piece: People expect inflation to stay high - their expectations are “elevated” - and that adds to the challenge of getting it back down to the 2% target again:

High expectations make it harder to get inflation down

www.thetimes.com/article/b71d...

Thanks Jonathan

America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up? The UK’s productivity gains are poor, while the US economy has proved more resilient to the economic shocks of the past two decades

Very good explainer by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on the UK's productivity underperformance vs the US - exaggerated but real.

www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up? The UK’s productivity gains are poor, while the US economy has proved more resilient to the economic shocks of the past two decades

My Sunday Times piece: Weak productivity, poor resilience and self inflicted damage mean UK GDP per capita, properly measured, is falling well behind the US. We’ve closed the gap before, can we again?

America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up?

www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up? The UK’s productivity gains are poor, while the US economy has proved more resilient to the economic shocks of the past two decades

My Sunday Times piece: Weak productivity, poor resilience and self inflicted damage mean UK GDP per capita, properly measured, is falling well behind the US. We’ve closed the gap before, can we again?

America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up?

www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce With the government holding a lot of debt, the Bank of England risks provoking the markets unless it eases its bond selling

My Times piece: There is little chance of a Bank of England rate cut this week but, following bond market turbulence, its decision on gilt sales over the next 12 months is important:

A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce

www.thetimes.com/article/f68b...

A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce With the government holding a lot of debt, the Bank of England risks provoking the markets unless it eases its bond selling

My Times piece: There is little chance of a Bank of England rate cut this week but, following bond market turbulence, its decision on gilt sales over the next 12 months is important:

A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce

www.thetimes.com/article/f68b...

Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have all had the dilemma of how to balance the books. But Reform UK and the Greens just wish that away

@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social we would all benefit from politicians doing more of the prosaic and much much less of the “world-leading”.

Don't fall for political parties selling economic snake oil. www.thetimes.com/article/63d1...

I had my passport checked on the train from Copenhagen to Malmo btw

Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have all had the dilemma of how to balance the books. But Reform UK and the Greens just wish that away

My Sunday Times piece: Mainstream political parties are under pressure but they are the ones who have had to deal in office with economic reality, rather than the fantasies peddled by the populists:

Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil

www.thetimes.com/article/63d1...

Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems have all had the dilemma of how to balance the books. But Reform UK and the Greens just wish that away

My Sunday Times piece: Mainstream political parties are under pressure but they are the ones who have had to deal in office with economic reality, rather than the fantasies peddled by the populists:

Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil

www.thetimes.com/article/63d1...

Sigh, the usual economically illiterate nonsense.

How Rachel Reeves hopes to win over her doubters — and the markets Rachel Reeves has set a date of November 26 for her budget. That’s plenty of time for tax-rise fever to intensify, but bonds and productivity loom larger

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has 11 weeks to convince the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the gilt market that she is on the right track. It won’t be easy:

How Rachel Reeves hopes to win over her doubters — and the markets

www.thetimes.com/article/8ac5...

Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis? Research in America suggests that increased availability at the top of the market is ‘better for prices and for rents, even at the lower end’

My Times piece: Labour’s ambition of 1.5m new homes this Parliament is badly off track. Giving builders the freedom to build the houses they want to could help, and ease the affordability crisis:

Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis?

www.thetimes.com/article/1897...

Thanks Jill

Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis? Research in America suggests that increased availability at the top of the market is ‘better for prices and for rents, even at the lower end’

fascinating piece from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on how to free up the housing market by building more profitable homes at top end and allowing people to move up (do they have our stamp duty in the US?) (£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis? Research in America suggests that increased availability at the top of the market is ‘better for prices and for rents, even at the lower end’

My Times piece: Labour’s ambition of 1.5m new homes this Parliament is badly off track. Giving builders the freedom to build the houses they want to could help, and ease the affordability crisis:

Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis?

www.thetimes.com/article/1897...

Excellent article from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. Having gone out the odd time to eat recently, what used to be a £15 meal is now £20 & a cheaper lunch menu that used to start around £6 is more likely £9. Add drinks on top of this and...🤯💸💸 #EconSky open.spotify.com/episode/4Vnd...

PS. 'The Rise & Fall of Monetarism' by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social is a fantasic work of popular economic history; essential reading for understanding the Thatcher governments.

My A-level economics teacher made me read it before 'going up' (almost 30 years ago.)

amzn.eu/d/iDRYlZr

Four years on, and the cost of living crisis endures From energy bills to food, the bare necessities of life cost more. Consumer spending is suffering, while confidence in the Bank of England is waning

My Sunday Times piece: Rising food and energy prices mean that a cost-of-living crisis that began four years ago is still very much with us. Until it subsides the government will remain under pressure:

Four years on, and the cost of living crisis endures

www.thetimes.com/article/cbd6...

Four years on, and the cost of living crisis endures From energy bills to food, the bare necessities of life cost more. Consumer spending is suffering, while confidence in the Bank of England is waning

My Sunday Times piece: Rising food and energy prices mean that a cost-of-living crisis that began four years ago is still very much with us. Until it subsides the government will remain under pressure:

Four years on, and the cost of living crisis endures

www.thetimes.com/article/cbd6...