Chris Giles

Others have noted that this means foreign-born people are LESS likely than UK-born people to be in prison. What I want to note is that The Times is now referring to foreign-born UK citizens as ‘foreigners’. This includes Boris Johnson, Sir Mo Farah, Emma Watson, Rory Stewart and little old me.

People pay tax on income

Not sure this is news

I don’t think you can tell just from the chart. Real returns improving make it a good time to save, and also low consumer confidence can make it a good time to save for precautionary reasons. Net- we can’t tell for sure

Just shows you need to be careful with interpretation. 2008 low of savings intention didn’t signal boom times either

I don’t see a high level of savings intentions as necessarily bad (as GfK the data source did).

Real returns have been very high recently…

Sorry, not sorry, Don...

Exporting countries are not paying for your tariffs

They're an import tax paid by the US

Likely - not sure we’ll find out thiugh

Which all adds to the sense that the LFS vastly oversampled inactive people after Covid

That’s v sensible

Good and bad. Bad because we just don’t know what’s going on. Good because the UK is lass of an outlier internationally the more inactivity falls back to pre covid levels

Not one that explains this - tell me more

Since there is nothing great to cross check against, it’s all speculation though, which isn’t helpful

With the latest “fall” in inactivity, you have to wonder whether most of the “rise” after covid was just the Labour Force Survey being rubbish.

perhaps more 2031??

We had the "Edinburgh reforms" of the financial sector in 2022

Now we've had the "Leeds reforms" of the financial sector in 2025

Which UK city will host the 2028 edition?

Worse than eurozone - not so dissimilar to US, although we have not imposed large new import taxes (but have imposed a higher payroll tax)

If you want to worry yourself about UK inflation - the FT core measure has not fallen since spring last year...

...driving that has been an increase in the breadth of price rises

Offsetting this is definitive weakness in real indicators, especially the labour market...

You think clothing is not a comms issue?

Deadly

There can always be data problems but no reason to think this is systematically tainted

Don’t believe the myth: Britain’s services have been hit hard by Brexit Export growth has been strong but not lived up to its potential

Don’t believe the myth: Britain’s services have been hit hard by Brexit - on.ft.com/44WAeEv via @chrisgiles.ft.com

I take some bleak comfort. The more we can see how bad Brexit was, the less of a mystery our growth failure is. Mysteries suck.

In the paper's descriptive statistics, it shows no outperformance of UK services since Brexit to the world of low barrier services, but falling behind of high barrier services - so overall bad in general

You might disagree with the paper, but it says that *all* UK service exports to *everywhere* are lower than they would have been despite being strong...ie they could have been stronger

Heard the one about how UK services exports were booming after Brexit??

Another myth, sadly...

My column

www.ft.com/content/3e9d...

Well, he is the authority on everything, so…

Heard the one about how UK services exports were booming after Brexit??

Another myth, sadly...

My column

www.ft.com/content/3e9d...

FT sentiment and topic coverage predicts inflation [FREE TO READ] Our macro mood index and topic attention helps anticipate where inflation is going

It turns out that a model based on @financialtimes.com journalism forecasts US inflation better than the Fed on.ft.com/4lp5y4O

It’s understandably bad because it’s working with the worst kids books ever as source material…

Casual inference pop quiz!

Can you think of ANY confounders in this relationship?

H/t @chloergibbs.bsky.social

www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

Yes - that is on Monetary Policy Radar, which is a new FT service - you can take out a free trial