Peter Matejic

"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.

Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.

All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)

Benefit cap: number of households capped to May 2025

We don't - and there are two effects: larger families already affected by the cap don't gain, and some gaining families won't see the full increase because they will come up against the cap. Looking at www.gov.uk/government/s..., just under half of capped families in May 2025 had 3+ kids (~60k).

Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

See gov.uk/government/p... for the DWP analysis and look out for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis on overall living standards shortly, showing there is more to do to tackle this more broadly.

DWP modelling show a fall of 400,000 over the current Parliament. This would be the biggest on record, exceeding falls of 300,000 under the first Government of Tony Blair and the Government of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

Between 2011/12 and 2023/24, child poverty rose by 900,000 in total. This is entirely due to increases in poverty in families with three or more children, with a small fall in poverty for smaller families over the period.

A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Congratulations - this has been very useful

With earnings barely increasing, many families are likely to experience mounting financial pressures, eroding living standards.

Weak real earnings growth will be particularly concerning for lower-income households. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, with food and housing costs continuing to rise faster than the overall price level.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.4%.

Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.

We need an independent process to advise on a standard allowance rate that reflects what people need to afford the essentials, and for rates to quickly move towards that level.

A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for singles lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £20 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £1,000.

A chart showing how far the Universal Credit Standard Allowance rate for couples lag behind levels needed for essentials. The gap is still over £50 a week after April 2026, equating to an annual gap of over £2,500.

The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.

This means the standard allowance is set to rise from £92 to £98 per week for singles and from £145 to £154 per week for couples. However it will remain below the level needed to afford a basic basket of essentials.

We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.

Thanks Noah, but I'm looking at UK not US earnings - see www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan... for the official data I am using.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and August 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.2%.

We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing before taking account of inflation. Between Sept and March, the series starting in Sept 2023 and in Sept 2024 show very similar profile growing around 2% over those six months. In the next four months, the 2024-25 series grew more slowly, such that there was around a 1 percentage point gap in nominal growth by July, with the nominal wage growth between Sept 2023 and July 2024 being around 5% but between Sept 2024 and July 2025 being around 4%.

Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.

Unless we get strong growth in one of the next two months' data, annual earnings growth will fall to ~zero in data out on 11th Nov, before Budget, highlighting the importance of decisions there.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and July 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.1%.

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.

Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.

Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.

A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.

Thanks for picking this up. It's based on series A2FC in tab '6. Real AWE' in the spreadsheet at www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan.... We've waited a few months to be sure it's not a blip, but the earnings slowdown (mainly due to higher inflation) feels a real effect to us.

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

When coupled with above target rate inflation, falling vacancy numbers and rising unemployment, it how much shows the Chancellor needs to focus on tackling falling living standards there. See jrf.org.uk/news/new-jrf... our previous analysis. (5/5)

Lack of earnings growth is deeply worrying and should trends continue and the budget be after 11 November (when September earnings data comes out), the latest picture may well show no earnings growth in the latest year. (4/5)