Peter Matejic

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

When coupled with above target rate inflation, falling vacancy numbers and rising unemployment, it how much shows the Chancellor needs to focus on tackling falling living standards there. See jrf.org.uk/news/new-jrf... our previous analysis. (5/5)

Lack of earnings growth is deeply worrying and should trends continue and the budget be after 11 November (when September earnings data comes out), the latest picture may well show no earnings growth in the latest year. (4/5)

What did the May Monetary Policy Report say? The Bank doesn’t look at whole economy regular wages or CPIH inflation, and were too high on private sector earnings and too low on CPI inflation. They had both series falling over the next six months. (3/5)

Latest annual figures are flattered by positive earnings growth between May and September 2024. Why this stagnation? It’s due to higher inflation since September 2024, with non-inflation adjusted (nominal) earnings growth very similar over both periods. (2/5)

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and May 2024, wages grew 1.8%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.3%.

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

Anyway, thanks for engaging with the report and material even if you remain a sceptic.

Thanks, I do think sequences of groups, each building on previous ones make it more objective. And I do think that thinking of what is needed for sufficiency rather than what people are having to go without is a good question. But we do have a range of data to look at, all with their pros and cons.

A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2024 The Minimum Income Standard provides a vision of the living standards that we, as a society, agree everyone in the UK should be able to achieve. This report sets out what households need to reach it i...

See www.jrf.org.uk/a-minimum-in... for the methodology (used consistently since 2008). You'll see from www.lboro.ac.uk/research/crs..., separate MIS's for London & for rural Scotland has been constructed. I do think a good way of determining a decent living standard is to ask people what they need.

Starmer's missed milestone? The outlook for living standards at the Spring Statement While on average all families are forecast to see a fall in living standards this Government, families on the lowest incomes are set to bear the brunt of the pain.

Thanks. This isn't the first way we would recommend raising tax revenue. We'd first look at Capital Gains Tax and National Insurance Contributions on investment income which improve the fairness and efficiency of the tax system and raise revenue. See www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for our thinking.

Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...

Pensioner Poverty: challenges and mitigations - Committees - UK Parliament Are pension age benefits and the State Pension enough to stop pensioners from falling into poverty?  We are looking at the state of pensioner poverty in the UK. Which groups are most affected? Wh...

See committees.parliament.uk/work/8675/pe... for the excellent Work and Pension Select Committee report and jrf.org.uk/households-l... for the latest Households Below a Minimum Income Standard report. (4/4)

The report says "a guiding principle should be [State Pension] provides the amount needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living. The Government should set a strategy to reduce ... the proportion of pensioners living below this level in future." (3/4)

A chart showing the proportion of pensioners falling below the Minimum Income Standard. This was around 13% in the period 2008-11 (around 1 in 8 pensioners), rising to 19% by 2017/18 (close to 1 in 5 pensioners), before falling back to 15% in 2020/21 (around 1 in 6 pensioners). The proportion of pensioners below the standard rose dramatically between then and 2022/23, currently standing at 24% (close to 1 in 4 pensioners).

As I told the committee, the proportion of pensioners not reaching MIS, which sets out what the public agree is needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living, has actually gone up even faster than the main poverty measure. (2/4)

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.

Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.

How rumoured disability and sickness benefit cuts compare to others since 2010 These rumoured cuts would be the largest in social security for a decade, since George Osborne’s 2015 Budget. They'd be 3 times the size of the (subsequently cancelled) cuts Iain Duncan Smith resigned...

Yes - to sugar-coat massive welfare cuts in that Budget: www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.

It shows planned £1.8 billion extra investment in employment support over the next four years could help 45,000-95,000 more disabled people into work. 3.2 million people face benefit cuts, meaning maximum share expected to move into work is 3%

Estimating the impacts of extra employment support for disabled people

NB: this is the paper the stats in my quote comes from: learningandwork.org.uk/resources/re....

Quote card saying "Disabled people who are able to work already find it much more difficult to find suitable work that accommodates their needs. Today’s falling number of vacancies is just another complicating factor that exposes the need to rethink the government’s fundamentally unworkable plans to cut disability benefits. The Government's increase in employment support is expected to help, at most, 95,000 disabled people into work covering just 3% of people at risk of having their disability benefits cut. This employment support is desperately needed to remove the barriers disabled people face as are reforms to boost the quality of jobs through the Employment Rights Bill. But even the best support is undermined by the harsh extent of impending cuts. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker."

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!

Children being left behind: deep poverty among families in Scotland As we approach the next Scottish election, parties aspiring to government must radically up their game to help the 80,000 children in very deep poverty.

See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.

The Office for Statistics Regulation say "We request that the press release is updated by Friday 4th April to remove reference to the 383% figure and that this figure is not used going forward." Thanks to them for the speedy resolution.

Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."

This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.

Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.

My partner currently gets PIP, so yes I know that fear.

Yes, I'm hoping the £5bn is gross and total savings, but with so few numbers, it's hard to be definitive. In last OBR report, the WCA descriptor changes were scored. Reversing those cuts and then cutting £5bn set out 'only' gets a £3bn spend reduction in 29/20. See obr.uk/docs/dlm_upl... for £2bn.