Magic Data Science

#calledshots for the future The Hobbit set:

RW draft archetype will be Dwarf Typal, or at least, heavily Dwarf-centric, maybe with a connection to treasure (tho that's more likely RG)

The return of common Legends, at least to fit in some of the many lesser Dwarves

I have chosen to not try to support SPM/OM1. Data is a little different, and it's a hassle to get it lined up. Juice not worth the squeeze. Sorry tho

Agree!

I wonder if it's just the literal average of some number of survey respondents that indicated "yes, I play tabletop MtG"

Or if it's expenditure-weighted, or something more interesting.

~ ≠ ≈

I'm open to using the ~ if you're texting or in a hurry, but on an earnings report, I'd probably take the time to figure out how to write the ≈.

Also, some wild keming choices here

Here is where ECL lands on the #PrinceVPauper ternary plot: decidedly _not_ Pauper. The rares and uncommons are relatively stronger than the commons, to a greater extent than pretty much any recent set.

At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!

www.17lands.com/metrics_defi...

Here is where ECL lands on the #PrinceVPauper ternary plot: decidedly _not_ Pauper. The rares and uncommons are relatively stronger than the commons, to a greater extent than pretty much any recent set.

At common, look for good removal, friendly creature types, and... good luck!

Some time ago, I came up with a method of measuring the "openness" of a card in Limited, which can summarize up to describing a particular format.

One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...

Agree! The hybrid changelings definitely seem to be doing their job.

IDK what the exact intent was for the Typal hybrids, but they do seem to be a little more narrowly played than I expected on day 0. Closer to the BLB hybrids than the TLA ones.

Ps. I love the hybrid Changelings; thanks for those

@bsweitz123.bsky.social

Read the whole article if you want to know more about what I'm doing here, and if you want to see Openness scores for *each common* in the 17Lands era.

mtgds.wordpress.com/2024/08/19/r...

And let me know what kinds of patterns you observe.

5) The least Open cards -- the ones that are most narrowly drafted/played -- are mostly finely-targeted Typal synergy cards, many of which explicitly say the name of a creature type. This is very Bloomburresque.

4) The most "Open" mono-color cards are, as usual, the strong removal cards, which are (a) desirable and (b) not usually synergy-reliant

3) Contrast those with the Typal hybrid "signposts", which are drafted and played much more like gold cards than hybrid. In the graph ^^^^, you can see the distinction between these two groups of hybrid commons -- the gluey Changelings are way at the top of the distribution.

2) The gluey hybrid Changelings are, as you might expect, pretty high-Openness. The "theoretical maximum" for these cards is a 7, which would be the 7 color-touching pairs playing the card equally frequently, and several of these are close, at 6+

...as the graph shows, it also has the wide/low distribution characteristic of a fairly on-rails format.

Here are some observations.

1) The most Open cards are, as usual, the colorless lands and artifacts, although even within these cards there are some archetype leanings.

... see this depicted in the graph as the mass of dots in the 1.5-3 range.

You can read about my methodology, and how I interpret these Openness values, here: mtgds.wordpress.com/2024/08/19/r...

Naturally, I was curious as to how ECL would look, given that it is also heavily typal. Well...

Some time ago, I came up with a method of measuring the "openness" of a card in Limited, which can summarize up to describing a particular format.

One of the more interesting things I found was how relatively "on-rails" Bloomburrow was, with its 10 typal archetypes. You can...

Someday they'll post a job that requires 2+ years of graph-making and Limited-format-predicting experience.

I start with the AllPrintingsCSVFiles CSV from mtgjson.com/downloads/al...

and then build other stuff on top of that. But that CSV is the most straightforward starting place, I think

@cubecobra.com Excited about the 1.5 update! Especially Scryfall drag'n'drop.

Does this update mean that the job that calculates Cube Elo will run regularly?

Also, at the moment, it seems like Playtest Data is missing?

Clearly Alara, and specifically, Bant

Here is a plot of GIHWR by rank within color, for commons and uncommons in ECL, per @17lands.bsky.social

Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.

Among uncommons, ...

...the lines are pretty well tangled up, which is often a sign of good color balance, though there is a slight edge to green.

Just going off of this graph, I'd say -- look for Elves, but none of the 5 primary typal mechanics are guaranteed to fail, if built reasonably.

Here is a plot of GIHWR by rank within color, for commons and uncommons in ECL, per @17lands.bsky.social

Among commons, it's G and then everyone else, although R and B have a higher top-end before falling off, while U and W are a little flatter.

Among uncommons, ...

I'm one of these, @maro254.bsky.social

Watched 20 years, 20 lessons
Listened to the DtW podcast episodes expanding on that
Listened to every DtW at least once
Had a million ideas for models to build
Spent a year working on those intermittently
Started MTGDS.

Good! Magic needs more math.

Good! Magic needs more math.