Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke

UK academics studying topics sensitive to China face harassment, survey finds Exclusive: university staff report being pressured to change teaching and are told that Chinese surveillance is rife

UK academics studying topics sensitive to China face harassment, survey finds – The Guardian: ‘reported instances of harassment from colleagues and pressure from university administrators related to the financial consequences of damaging relations with China.’

The hope, if you care about the multilateral system, which almost nobody seems to do, is that the whole thing will unravel…

A very reasonable question. I can't imagine that the French or Scandinavians will be thrilled, for example. Elsewhere, I don't know.

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www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DOC329/t...

It may be that the EU walks back from this decision in the face of popular opposition. But if it doesn't then history will not be kind to those responsible. This is not about the interests of this or that industry, it is about something much much bigger that risks resonating down the decades.

A strategic disaster for the EU, given how it has always positioned itself on the world stage, given the importance of the rules-based order in maintaining world stability, and given the risks to that stability in an era of Putin, Xi, and Trump.

If this is accurate, then unless the EU eliminates all tariffs on industrial imports from all its WTO partners, it will be joining Trump in destroying the international trade rules that have applied since WW2. The difference being that while Trump hates the rule-based order the EU claims to value it

Correct headline today: EU endorses the drive-by killing of the postwar rules-based trading system and the most-favoured-nation principle.

Absolutely. We had a choice. A big American Brexit, or the dismantling of the whole system. That the EU is choosing the latter is shameful. And very much against its own interests.

Presumably the EU, as the great great promoter of international rules that we know it is, will offer these 0% tariffs to all WTO members?

Europe's Surrender Thoughts on a spectacularly one-sided trade deal between the EU and US

My latest on the spectacularly one-sided EU-US trade deal.

Establishing a reputation for being a pushover, unwilling to bear costs in order to promote one’s interests, is also a threat to our physical security in a dangerous world.

I suspect some citizens also intuitively understand this.

100%.

These two are some of the very rare good takes I've seen so far.

In the face of the most blatant trade coercion since at least 1945, the EU has failed to even activate its anti-coercion instrument, designed, as the name indicates, precisely for this purpose. It has let down trading partners less able to stand up to Trump's bullying and weakened multilateralism.
8

It is a world where I don’t see how the EU can anymore complain about, say, the UK not living up to its MFN obligations since it is not punishing, but rewarding, the US for precisely that.

So if I understand correctly the EU is making concessions so that the US can illegally charge it a base tariff rate 5% higher than that facing the UK? So much for European negotiating strength and EU commitment to the multilateral system @martinsandbu.ft.com @alanbeattie.bsky.social

I might add that there's a special responsibility on relatively large closed economies like the EU to stand up to Trump, since the aggregate costs of his protection and their retaliation will be relatively small for them. If they don't defend the system by punishing flagrant rule-breaking who will?

Brussels should not be shocked by Trump being Trump The EU is using the old trade playbook against a new and different threat

Another good piece by @alanbeattie.bsky.social .

www.ft.com/content/2b92...

Trump reaps $50bn tariff haul as world ‘chickens out’ Only China and Canada have retaliated against US president’s tariff war

Can cooperative institutions be sustained if no-one is willing to incur costs in order to punish those breaking the rules? It doesn't seem (to date) that the international community is particularly committed to the rules that have governed trade since WW2.
www.ft.com/content/82e3...

Effectiveness of sanctions: Who suffers the most — and why Sanctions do work — but not all countries are affected equally. A new analysis by the Kiel Institute quantifies the economic costs of sanctions and reveals the vulnerability of individual states: deve...

New KWP: Sanctions hurt - but not equally. @schularick.bsky.social, @kevinhorourke.bsky.social et al show: countries w/ undiversified exports, develop. economies, & EU financial hubs are most exposed to economic coercion. Drastic measures work - half-measures don’t 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

To honour the memory of Ghazala Azmat, the Department of Economics of SciencesPo is creating an award in her name. Ghazala made important contributions in a large number of fields, spanning the economics of discrimination, gender, education and organizational economics. The award will promote work in those fields by young scholars. The first edition of this award will consist of a 5,000 euro prize for the best paper in this set of fields by junior researchers. The selection of the laureate will be carried out by a scientific committee composed of Pierre Cahuc, Alan Manning and Barbara Petrongolo. Eligibility for the prize requires that all authors have obtained their PhD after 1 September 2018. Papers written jointly with more senior researchers will not be considered. The prize will be awarded at SciencesPo during the event organised in memory of Ghazala on 10 December 2025. One of the authors of the prize winning paper will present the work at this event. Applications must be submitted by 31 August 2025.

📢 #CallForPapers To honour the memory of Ghazala Azmat, the Economics Department of SciencesPo is creating an award in her name. Junior researchers can submit a paper in economics of discrimination, gender, education & organizational #economics. Submit by 31 August.
cepr.org/events/ghaza...
#EconSky

I hope the headline is inaccurate since if our business and political leaders are shocked by something so predictable then that is actually very worrying.

EU toughens stance on Donald Trump’s tariffs as deadline looms European capitals insist US drops levies on EU as part of any framework deal

If you are strong, but don't want to use your strength for fear of getting hurt, then you are in fact weak. Not the right signal to send in a dangerous world.

www.ft.com/content/9b77...

Has anyone suggested what might be the most logical, and also most easily understood and pedagogical, response to Trump’s tariffs? Namely, if the USA defaults on its MFN obligations to others, then others should withdraw MFN status from the USA?

A nice tribute to Peter Neary by Patrick Honohan and Cormac Ó Gráda:

www.ucd.ie/economics/t4...

#econsky

EU toughens stance on Donald Trump’s tariffs as deadline looms European capitals insist US drops levies on EU as part of any framework deal

If you are strong, but don't want to use your strength for fear of getting hurt, then you are in fact weak. Not the right signal to send in a dangerous world.

www.ft.com/content/9b77...

#econhist

This is an important new paper and a great example of how getting the facts right can shape our views of what matters in history #econhist
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

@kevinhorourke.bsky.social writes about the history of the US commitment to non-discrimination in #trade through bitter lessons learned about aggressive retaliation and discusses how the #tariffs of the second Trump administration contrast starkly with that history.
cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky