Brennan Allen

Rest in peace Peter. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

I am envious of how well my puppy can sleep. What a peaceful lil guy 🐶

Is today NCEP’s Katrina?

AI weather models have their strengths - but just like any other model, they also have their weaknesses.

This upcoming Saturday is a major failure for the AIFS & GraphCast - both consistently showed a major nor'easter (with little support from the GFS & ECMWF), only to completely lose the storm:

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"The find out" phase just keeps getting worse.

Feeling tired, but happy as hell. Proud of our boys for getting it done when it mattered last night #canada #4nations

This threat tracking southern east of us - missing us by 200 km. One of many near misses this winter for NS, for those complaining about this winter it is nothing compared to what it could of been if the dice rolls were slightly different. #NSstorm

Will only be worse tomorrow 🙃

Cleared away 20+ mm WE of ice pellets from my driveway. Changed over to all freezing rain half way through the shoveling. Nothing worse than clearing ice pellets, like moving sand.
Goal was to remove it so it won't act like a sponge and soak up the rain... Hard freeze at 7am #nsstorm #halifax

True - hope city and provincial plow folks are fully staff Monday. Or it could be another mix of sun and cloud, cold, windy "snow day" for the kids Tuesday.

Monday afternoon and evening commutes will be terrible after the hard freeze. It should be warm enough for long enough to melt ice off lines though (at least in HRM) before nasty westerlies kick. #GotSalt?

It is rare to see 50% probabilities of 15 cm of snow or more at this lead time (a week out).
Will have to monitor the forecast closely for a possible major storm at the end of next week. #NSstorm #Halifax

Plot of the lowest daily sea ice extent in the Arctic 1978-79 to 2024-25, color coded by the year of occurrence.

So the 33 days so far this winter with Arctic Sea ice extent at the lowest since 1978-79 got me wondering about when lowest daily occurred throughout the year. Answer: mostly 2016-2020 except 2012 mid-August to early October and 2010 for a short stretch in late June and early July. #Arctic #SeaIce

Looking forward to the start of #4nations. Go Canada 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Hoping that the rain and temps well above zero will do the work for me 😉

Lol

I have found it sunnier than normal for the month given how dry it's been - more tolerable than previous winters imo.

Still one day to go but, with an average January high of -1.6 C and a mean daily temperature of -5.2 C. January 2025 will go down as the coldest in 10 years. Jan 2015 avg high -1.7 C, avg mean -6.8 C. Data from YHZ.Normal Jan avg high is -1.2 C, and avg mean is -5.7 C.
#nsstorm #halifax

And now is the time to shovel and salt before the temperatures drop!! 🥶 #nsstorm #halifax #hfxtraffic

And a temperature drop- shovel up any wet snow

Roads in Halifax are likely to become very icy again this evening. Temperatures in the city will go above zero by 4-5pm then rapidly fall below zero around 9pm... I know last night was rough. #nsstorm #halifax #HFXtraffic

1/4 to 1/8 SM +SN -BLSN. Nice frontal squall just in time for the commute home. #nsstorm

That sucks. I just got over what was the worse GI illness I've had in my life to date. Hope you are on the upswing soon!

🌡️ Temperature outlooks for next 2 weeks for #Halifax: Current cold period, abates later this week. One other Arctic blast likely at the end of the month before a milder start to Feb. #NSstorm

Yes and that optimistic GFS run had two systems with very little ensemble support before the end of the month. Both are gone on the 6z run of the GFS.

It's been a very dry January. To date Halifax area has seen about 30-40mm of precipitation this month (most of which was rain this past Wkend). Not much more likely for January which averages around 100mm. So Jan likely ~50% of normal precipitation. I suspect the drought will be worse #Nsstorm

Very different from my two experiences with vivid. Hope you can avoid whatever it is, wouldn't wish it on anyone.