Davide Vampa

Just written some reflections for @ccc-research.bsky.social on a topic I’ve been analysing for a few years: how growing electoral turbulence is reshaping multi-level politics in Europe.

Based on three publications linked in the thread below 🧵👇

From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics European politics has experienced increasing turbulence, with much focus on the volatility of national elections. However, it remains unclear whether such instability extends to the sub-national le...

Publication 3, recently in @wepsocial.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Subnational Policymaking in an Era of Political Instability: Developing a New Typology for Comparative Analysis Political parties and their representatives play a crucial role in policymaking processes. However, increasing electoral volatility and unpredictability in democracies across Europe and beyond have...

Publication 2, last year in @jcpaicpa.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Publication 1, in Party Politics
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Just written some reflections for @ccc-research.bsky.social on a topic I’ve been analysing for a few years: how growing electoral turbulence is reshaping multi-level politics in Europe.

Based on three publications linked in the thread below 🧵👇

Making Sense of Turbulent Politics in Multi-Level Europe European politics is no longer defined by stability but by turbulence. Established parties are losing ground, new challengers are rising, and elections are becoming less predictable. Turbulence is not...

New blog!

Making Sense of Turbulent Politics in Multi-Level Europe

@davidevampa.bsky.social shows how turbulence in European politics extends into Europe’s regions and devolved arenas, making volatility a multi-level, territorial, and consequential phenomenon

Read more: edin.ac/4n38rs4

The Disunited States: Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won’t Work There is a growing interest in secession, or what some refer to as a national divorce, between Red and Blue America. Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has called for it on multiple occasion...

New blog!

The Disunited States: Threats of Secession in Red and Blue America and Why They Won’t Work

Read @ryan-griffiths.bsky.social on what a project of American secession would look like, and why America is ill-suited for a peaceful 'national divorce'

Read more: edin.ac/46Tl0jy

​​⏪ 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗙𝗦…
🇹🇷 Jörg Baudner explored the link between 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝗹𝘀 and the different institutional forms of 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, using #𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆 as a case study.

🔓Read the #openaccess article here 👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...

#AKP #decentralization

Regional policy autonomy in Ethiopian federation: a comparative analysis This article examines the regional autonomy of the Ethiopian federation using the regional autonomy index, doing so by measuring de jure and de facto autonomy and comparing it with other federation...

🚨 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲! 🚨
🇪🇹 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆 in Ethiopian federation: a comparative analysis

Read the new article by Nigussie Daba Heyi on the 𝗘𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 here 👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...

#Ethiopia #region #autonomy #federalism

Abstract of the article "From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics" by Davide Vampa. Published online first in West European Politics.

📊 Figure 1 Regional elections in Europe often mirror national instability – but only for national parties. ✅ RTV (national parties) volatility closely follows GE volatility ❌ RSV (regional parties) volatility depends on past regional dynamics, not national ones 👉 Multi-level de-institutionalisation is real, but region-specific politics follow their own path.

📊 Figure 3 – Regionalist parties and electoral volatility Across Europe, regional elections often reflect national volatility – but the association is weaker where regionalist parties are strong. 🔹 When regionalist parties are weak → national volatility is more clearly echoed regionally 🔹 When they are strong → the link is much less evident 👉 Regionalist strength is linked to weaker connections between national and regional electoral turbulence.

📊 Figure 7 – National volatility and regional disparities Instability in national elections is more strongly reflected in regional election outcomes in poorer regions. In more prosperous regions, the association weakens or disappears. (And as Figure 5 shows, strong regional institutions also reduce the connection with national turbulence.) 👉 Economic prosperity & institutional strength condition how national and regional volatility are linked.

New article by @davidevampa.bsky.social

👉 Regional elections across Western Europe are becoming more unstable, often mirroring national turbulence. But the link weakens where regionalist parties are strong, institutions are powerful, or regions are more prosperous.

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Making Decentralization Work: The Politics of Implementation A substantial body of scholarship has sought to explain the origins of federalism and why some states opt for decentralization while others remain more centralized. However, despite the broad literatu...

New blog!

Read @javiermcanto.bsky.social on 'Making Decentralization Work: The Politics of Implementation' 👇

edin.ac/4mstXWG

Great to welcome Esther Roberton to my class today. Her reflections on the work of the Scottish Constitutional Convention gave students a unique perspective on the process leading up to devolution. A lively discussion and a reminder of the value of going beyond the textbook @uoe-sps.bsky.social

🚨 New article out in @wepsocial.bsky.social !
📄 From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics
Open access👉 doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2025.2557768

National politics in Europe is growing more electorally unstable - does this volatility also reach the regions? Thread 🧵

From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics European politics has experienced increasing turbulence, with much focus on the volatility of national elections. However, it remains unclear whether such instability extends to the sub-national le...

6/📌 Key takeaway: Electoral volatility is increasingly a multi-level phenomenon.

National instability is often reflected in regional arenas - but regional parties, institutional autonomy & economic prosperity can act as buffers

Full article (open-access) here ⬇️
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

5/💶 Figure 7 highlights the role of regional prosperity.

The relatively richer the region, the weaker the association between national and regional volatility.
👉 Clear for TV (total volatility) & RTV (national parties).
❌ For RSV (regional parties), the link is weak and mostly insignificant.

4/🏛️ Figure 5 adds another layer: regional institutions.

Where regions have high authority (RAI index), elections are more insulated from national turbulence.
👉 This mainly applies to TV (total volatility) and RTV (national parties).
❌ RSV (regional parties) follows a different, regional logic.

3/🏴‍☠️ Figure 3 highlights the role of regional parties.

The stronger their vote share, the weaker the association between national and regional volatility.
👉 Especially for TV (total volatility) & RTV (national parties).
❌ For RSV, there’s little change - it already follows its own regional logic.

2/👉 Regional elections often echo national instability – but only for national parties
✅ RTV volatility (national parties) aligned with GE volatility
❌ RSV volatility (regional parties) follows regional dynamics
➕ Same when looking at regeneration: RTV mirrors national shocks, RSV stays local

1/🔑 Starting point: volatility in reg elections is not one-dimensional concept.

Framework describes territorial (region-transcending vs region-specific) and functional (alteration vs regeneration) dimensions of volatility. Main focus on territorial dimension, intersecting with functional.

🚨 New article out in @wepsocial.bsky.social !
📄 From nations to regions: electoral volatility in European multi-level politics
Open access👉 doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2025.2557768

National politics in Europe is growing more electorally unstable - does this volatility also reach the regions? Thread 🧵

🇩🇪❓ How do citizens 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺?
📌🔓 Find out in the #openaccess article by Eva-Maria Trüdinger, Achim Hildebrandt, Simon Stocker, @ajazajilirjana.bsky.social and @pbundi.bsky.social here 👉https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2025.2533759

#Germany #federalism #citizens #politics

🇨🇴 What is the impact of 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 on 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 in Colombia?
📌🔓 Find out in the #openaccess article by Maria Antonieta Collazos-Ortiz, Pui-Hang Wong and David Andrés Londoño Bedoya here 👉https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2025.2520972

🇵🇰 What are the 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀 like in 𝗣𝗮𝗸𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻?
📌 Find out in the article by M.Mufti & @sameen-mohsin.bsky.social 👉https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2025.2471749

It's part of our latest 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲 👉https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/frfs20/35/3?nav=tocList

#Pakistan #politics #career

Understanding citizens’ knowledge and preferences for fiscal equalization in decentralized countries This paper examines how personal attributes and attitudes, and contextual factors shape citizens’ knowledge and preferences regarding fiscal equalization in multilevel governance systems. Our findi...

🚨𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲!🚨
Understanding 𝗰𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗻𝘀’ 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗳𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 in decentralized countries.
🇪🇸Here the new article by @santiagolagop.bsky.social, M. Cadaval-Sampedro, A. Herrero-Alcalde & X. Fernández-Leiceaga👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...
#Fiscal #equalization #federalism

Nigel Farage and Reform hold significant devolved power | Institute for Government Reform's local leaders now face real scrutiny.

NEW: Important questions should be asked about how Reform will use its positions of power in local government, writes @drhannahwhite.bsky.social

How will Reform's metro mayors and council leaders make the transition from opposition?

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comm...

The end of the ‘consociational mood’? Generational differences in sense-making of regionalization among Belgian Dutch-speakers Regionalization has become increasingly salient for citizens. To assess whether citizens perceive the process as legitimate, studies have increasingly focused on understanding public opinion toward...

🚨 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲! 🚨
🇧🇪 The end of the ‘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗺𝗼𝗼𝗱’? Generational differences in 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗲-𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 among Belgian Dutch-speakers

Read the new article by Ann-Mireille Sautter here 👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...

#Belgium #regionalization #Dutch

Still a Model? What We Can (and Can’t) Learn from German Federalism This event explores whether German federalism still offers useful lessons for Scotland and the UK.

Looking forward to kicking off the new academic (& political) year with @ccc-research.bsky.social hosting @angusrobertson.bsky.social for a conversation on German federalism.

Can Germany still be seen as a model of stability & balance?
What lessons might it hold for us?

Register 👇
edin.ac/45YoUs1

As #ecprgc25 comes to a close, we want to express our heartfelt gratitude to all the presenters and attendees! 🙏✨ Your insights and engagement have truly enriched our discussions on federalism, regionalism, decentralization, and politics/policy in multilevel systems! 🌍📚

Great four days at the 2025 @ecpr.bsky.social General Conference – 12 panels, over 50 papers in the @ecprfederalism.bsky.social SG section. Inspiring to see research on federalism, regionalism & territorial politics thriving and evolving. Thanks to all who presented and joined the debates!