Update!
1) Officially have my first 10-bagger in $ZEPP (10-bagger in under 7 months no less!)
2) I bought back into $PIERCE (VWAP SEK 8.52).

A lot of e-tailers look attractive in the next ~9 months imo (why I own USWE). But I also like the risk/reward in PIERCE.

Sold $BPCINS this Friday at 36.5 SEK (+22% return) in ~14.5 months time. Not what I had hoped for.

It seems the orders were more lumpy than I initially thought and it’s harder to grow consistently than expected.

#zepp #grmn

If Zepp reaches its Q3 midpoint sales guidance, grows 40% y/y in Q4, that would imply 256musd for full year 2025E, a sales growth of 50% y/y in 2026 puts Zepp's 2026E sales at 384musd and EV/S at ca 1.0x, compared to Garmin's Q2 LTM EV/S at 6x. Still massive upside from here imo.

I peer $ZEPP against $GRMN. It's easy to argue for a higher growth rate for Zepp than Garmin's fitness segment over time, given strong positioning and smaller base (LTM Q2 Garmin's fitness revenue was 10x of Zepp). Garmin's +41% y/y Q2 growth supports a high 50-60% growth in Zepp

My analysis of outlook: The +70% ish growth in Q3 is due to easy comps, which should come down some in Q4, but then up significantly in Q1 (potentially >100%).

Also with liquidity situation stabilizing ahead (maybe), pace of share buybacks or marketing efforts could rise further

$Zepp Q2 highlights:
- Strong revenue growth +46% (beating guidance)
- Now guide for 67-77% y/y growth in Q3.
- Management expects to INCREASE cash balance in Q3, would be first time in 7 quarters)
- Gross margin slightly below normal in Q2 (LT margin should be ~40%)

#BULL

A lot of my cases started to play out in July. Now +67% YTD

#USWE strong Q2, 4.6msek in one-offs on sales, but at the same time 4msek in strong USD headwinds, very impressive organic growth at +37%. Drop-through was a bit disappointing. Easy comps for another 2 quarters at least! Up 66% since I took it in.

+42.53% in a day #ZEPP

What’s behind this?
Great reception of their newest products: Halo strap and Balance 2.

I’m in for the long game though: Amazfit vs Garmin could be a repeat of similar stories in other industries, like Shein vs H&M or BYD vs european EVs.

#bullish

Das Semla on X: "Bought more $TALK at 4.8 SEK yesterday. VWAP is now 4.49 SEK. #bullish" / X Bought more $TALK at 4.8 SEK yesterday. VWAP is now 4.49 SEK. #bullish

$TALK
Up over 200% in ca 1.5 years and still at least 100% upside from here given BDO’s independent valuation of Talkpool Germany at 20.5MEUR 📈

x.com/dassemla/sta...

Bought $USWE following Q1 (basis 9.9 SEK). Similar exposure as $PIERCE, but more nische player and higher growth potential over time.

Sold $PIERCE at SEK 10.5 on Monday on the recent retail inflow, don’t think Q1 will be a trigger. (+12% since purchase earlier this year).

I might be back on a Q1 miss.

Bought $PIERCE after Q4 at SEK 9.3. Retail should continue to strengthen from here. Upside is still very much ahead of us imo. Share is at 7x ’25 EBIT and 4x ’26 EBIT on 8% sales CAGR. Very modest estimates considering sales grew 19% organically in Q4 y/y.