Steve Van Riel

To everyone in Britain's Jewish Community: you are not alone. We will not let hate or those who spread it win. We stand with you.

On Yom Kippur many Jewish people in Britain have their phones off to mark the holy day.

As it ends at 723pm, some will hear the tragic Manchester news for the first time.

At that time, please join many of us to send a message of solidarity to British Jews.Thanks Together coalition for proposing.

How Much Do Voters Care About Broken Election Promises? Manifesto promises matter and Labour will face fierce criticism if it breaks them. But our research suggests delivering a feeling of change is more...

@benshimshon.bsky.social and I did a bit of polling on this earlier in the year- quite interesting on who cares most about the broken promise
www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Labour must champion inclusivity to tackle advance of far right, says deputy leadership hopeful Exclusive: Alison McGovern says party needs emotive storyteller to fight against division promoted by Reform

A debate Labour badly needs to have:

This is great news - Ally would be a brilliant deputy leader, providing thoughtful and constructive challenge within government AND taking the fight to the Labour’s opponents with gusto

Thanks for writing it! Nice to come across that rogue called Wesley Ball too

Last night I finished The Art of a Lie by @laurasrobinson.bsky.social - highly recommend, reminded me of Robert Harris and even Graham Greene, maybe her best yet.

Feels like a point that gets missed in the Labour political analysis - huge issue on doorstep/media, but has no track record of being decisive in general elections

Do you think it’s fair to say that, despite the prominence it plays during several parliaments, it hasn’t actually been decisive as an issue at a general election since 1970? Eg 2005 it’s obvs not decisive as the Tories lose, 2010 it helps Cameron but it’s not the big factor etc?

Have there been any general elections in your lifetime where immigration was more prominent than 2005 as an issue in the campaign?

Forgot this. Was a good piece by errr me

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And the correlation between trust answers in surveys, and trusting behaviour is often not that strong e.g. people say they wouldn't hand over their phones if asked, but many actually do heinonline.org/HOL/LandingP...

A short blogpost while I've got a little time on my hands - Eight Myths About Trust

www.linkedin.com/pulse/eight-...

From a trust POV, trust only matters to behaviour when people are exposed to risk, so some of this assets-as-insurance idea could also explain why people can vote for politicians they don't see as trustworthy (in the sense of being reliable/credible/competent/low-risk)

If you've not seen it, this study's great on that point - eurosceptic policy preferences + having property that could protect you from economic instabilty combined to drive the Brexit vote www.cambridge.org/core/service...

The fight for trust has barely started Keir Starmer has placed an emphasis on restoring trust in politics - but polling shows it is declining. Can the Government reverse the trend?

They need to drill down much more into whose trust we need, what do we need them to trust in - and whether those institutions are yet deserving of that greater trust. More details here: www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Great that the governmen's talking about trust. But (at least as it's been written up in this article) it sounds like an amorphous 'nice to have' rather than a specific thing they are going to move the dial on.

The fight for trust has barely started Keir Starmer has placed an emphasis on restoring trust in politics - but polling shows it is declining. Can the Government reverse the trend?

Little further push for this one: me, writing for the @smfthinktank.bsky.social on trust in the Labour Government - it's a bit more complicated than people seem to think, but no less urgent for it www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

The fight for trust has barely started Keir Starmer has placed an emphasis on restoring trust in politics - but polling shows it is declining. Can the Government reverse the trend?

Building trust is hard - but even so, the government hasn’t moved the dial enough in its first year www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

Anthony Price’s Our Man in Camelot is a fun thriller that plays with this stuff, good holiday read

Trust was meant to be this government's big battle, but how has the first year of trust-building gone? I revisited something I wrote a year ago and thought about how Labour could move the dial.

Instead of a binary platform / no platform policy, could someone like the BBC publish ratings of its on-the-record sources e.g. AAA if it's completely factual, balanced, and honest about gaps in knowledge, AA if it doesn't lie, uses good evidence to support its agenda... right the way down to junk.

Also that the people who know most and care most about the letter of Labour’s promises are… people who chose Reform over Labour in 2024 (if I remember right)

It's a screengrab from this paper I wrote a year back www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u... - the full chart is on p42 and just shows the proportions of the UK population who say they trust different organisations and institutions.

Just in case you wanted to explore this more - it’s my specialist subject!

Is it something to do with the idea that Reform is taking ‘our’ voters?

Great piece by @philipjcowley.bsky.social (with a hell of an opening anecdote!)

For those interested, Phil is drawing on Miori and Green's piece from the @politicalquarterly.bsky.social special issue on the 2024 GE politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-mos...

Re-reading No More Champagne. A financial biography of Churchill. And it really is exceptionally good.
Multiply the amounts by about 50x for modern equivalents.
This bit is late 1939, with Churchill - in the war cabinet - desperately finishing an overdue book.

It’s not poverty that’s breeding the new populism. It’s wealth | Phillip Inman Analysts trace a link between financial security and a troubling, increasingly devil-may-care, attitude to political risk

There it is again: "It’s not poverty that’s breeding the new populism. It’s wealth."

Featuring our very own @benansell.bsky.social and @robfordmancs.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

How Much Do Voters Care About Broken Election Promises? Manifesto promises matter and Labour will face fierce criticism if it breaks them. But our research suggests delivering a feeling of change is more...

If you’re thinking about how they might move on the tax pledge @benshimshon.bsky.social and I wrote a piece you might find interesting, looking at how much the broken promise is the issue www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Fish and chips and the Brexit vote. Brilliant work by @stevepickering.bsky.social and Seiki Tanaka in Geoforum. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...