woolaf

Not really. They are trying to communicate something (anything) that preserves some semblance of extended deterrence—possibly because someone in the building said “we can’t just abandon our allies” or “we can’t just give Europe to Russia!” But they just don’t get the nuance and politics of ED.

I wouldn’t say “nothing.” There are a few credible experts still in the building and at STRATCOM. But I’m pretty sure the new senior leadership has a very rudimentary and simplistic understanding of nuclear posture.

Yup

There are some who would make that case, but the Administration has not enunciated or announced any formal changes to U.S. force posture. Not sure they’ve even thought about it in a formal review process.

No, doctrine was not “updated.” Bolt-from-the-blue nuclear war was a “worst case scenario,” but not the employment doctrine or most likely expectation for how war would start.

So, the document says U.S. will not engage on the conventional end--that's Europe's problem, but, if allies seems poised to lose the conventional conflict, the U.S. could consider nuclear escalation to stop Russia (at the risk of inviting Russian nuclear attack on the U.S.) Totally not credible (2)

You're kind of stuck in the 1970s... Current thinking on war in Europe (or Asia) is that it starts as a conventional war (like Ukraine), with threats of nuclear use as a way to create a risk for NATO engagement, then possible escalation to nuclear war if necessary to achieve war aims. (1/2)

His focus on China was always about establishing a "brand." Right before he began that exercise, he was trying to establish the brand of "I'm in favor of limited nuclear war." That did not catch on, so he moved onto China policy. Easy to change course when you have a different brand.

There are several mentions of nuclear threats to the "Homeland." But it says that Russia will be a "manageable threat" for Europe. It does, however, mention the size of Russia's arsenal and says that this is a threat "to the Homeland." Clearly, drawing a circle with the allies on the outside.

Zero credibility. It's not just about the tripwire showing evidence of a willingness to fight. For an ally (and an adversary) there is no reason to believe that we would start nuclear war for them if we are unwilling to help them blunt the initial attack.

Perhaps she is unaware of the fact that there is a separate country called "Iceland." Perhaps he is equally as limited in his knowledge. And yet, here we are....

He's now calling it "Iceland"

We've never gotten anything from NATO?????? We've never asked for anything from NATO??????

Repeating the obvious: The only time NATO ever implemented Article V was after 9/11. In defense of the U.S. Side by side in Afghanistan.

Effing idiot.

The recipe used 1/2 cup of red wine, but, somehow, there's and almost empty bottle of wine on my counter. 🤷‍♀️

I made a Shepard’s pie

This says everything I feel: "his passing feels like the end of an era, just as Garcia’s did." A piece of my life (or life story) has ended. I don't think any of the many losses of heroes and idols from my younger years has hit me as hard as this has.

All we need is music, sweet music
Sweet, sweet music
There'll be music everywhere
Sweet, sweet, everywhere
There'll be swinging, swaying
And records playing
Dancing in the street, oh
Dancing in the street

Some folks look for answers others look for fights,
Some folks up in treetops just a looking for their kites.
Whoa, I can tell your future just look what's in your hand,
But I can't stop for nothin' I'm just playing in the band.

Sugar magnolia, blossoms blooming, heads all empty and I don't care
Saw my baby down by the river, knew she'd have to come up soon for air
Sweet blossom come on, under the willow, we can have high times if you'll abide
We can discover the wonders of nature, rolling in the rushes by the riverside

💔🌹☠️ Just few thoughts from Bobby (and the rest of the band)

Well the first days are the hardest days, don't you worry any more,
'Cause when life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door.
Think this through with me, let me know your mind,
Wo, oh, what I want to know, is are you kind?

display of the horrific effects of nuclear war, with @wellerstein.bsky.social 's brilliant mapping and coding capabilities on full display. This article will be on display tomorrow, when the spring semester of my graduate seminar begins with a discussion of the effects of nuclear weapons. (fin)

would not be based on a mistaken assessment. And a smaller attack, or ambiguous warning, would not lead to a presidential decision to launch all U.S. ICBMs; after all, we have SLBMs that could retaliate later... But all this is irrelevant to the fact that the USA today article is a masterful (4)

it has since become a term of disparagement, or at least a common reference point, for describing the rationale for the U.S. ICBM force. No one asked my opinion, but I personally don't think ICBMs are destabilizing because an attack on all at the same time would be so big, that a U.S. response (3)

to complicate an adversary's attack planning. When I did so, I wasn't really referring to the U.S. force posture planning, but to the status of Minot, North Dakota, but someone else in the room (for a relatively private meeting) took the phrase and brought it out into the public discourse where (2)

Gotta admit, this is the first time my words have appeared in USA Today (at least to my knowledge). No, I'm not quoted in the article, but, in spite of the credit given to an Air Force General, I coined the phrase "nuclear sponge" to describe the strategy of maintaining lots of aim points (1)

I once had a former commander of Strategic Air Command tell me "if you don't want a crazy person to have access to nuclear weapons, don't elect a crazy person."

Filenes and Jordan Marsh!

Phelan's promise that "Trump-class ships will inspire “awe and reverence” during port visits won't work if they carry nuclear weapons. As policy, US won't "confirm or deny" whether a vessel carries nukes, and many nations ban nukes from their ports. If we can't confirm absence, we can't visit.