Richard Nephew

Kim Jong-Il once carded 38-under par at Pyongyang Golf Course One of golf’s greatest feats is to shoot one’s age.

Why did this story occur to me? No reason.

www.thestar.com/sports/golf/...

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." Daniel Patrick Moynihan

The US always have two ballistic missile nuclear arms subs on station able to launch nuclear weapons in short order.

Just as an FYI.

Pay attention to this.

Deferring to Trump, Senate Pulls Back on New Russia Sanctions

[Insert GIF of Lucy with the football]

Deferring to Trump, Senate Pulls Back on New Russia Sanctions www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/u...

Ukrainian lawmakers vote to scuttle independence of anti-corruption agencies The EU says it is “concerned” about the Kyiv parliament passing the controversial bill.

This is a massive mistake. NABU and SAPO are crucial organizations that must remain independent to be functional. The strength of Ukraine's anti-corruption fight is also essential for maintaining international support in the war. Please don't do this. www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

The E3's snapback ability remains intact. They didn't exit the JCPOA.

And no one can kick them out of it.

This is also not the same thing as when the US tried snapback in 2020. We had exited the JCPOA and, unwisely, didn't snapback before we did. So, we forfeited that, creative arguments to the contrary.

If a JCPOA participant says it thinks there is noncompliance, that's that. And that language is legally binding.

Iran's argument is quite dubious and the people negotiating the JCPOA included its former UN Ambassador. They understood the meaning of the language they accepted.

But, the operative language about the viability of snapback is in UNSCR 2231. Paras 10 and 11 of 2231 make clear that the UNSC encourages JCPOA participants to work things out through the DRM, but it is not obligatory.

@ddolzikova.bsky.social wrote an important thread about Iran/JCPOA snapback on the other site.

I'll just note: the DRM para in the JCPOA is filled with a lot of "coulds" not "shalls." The "shalls" refer to things after "coulds," defining how the "coulds" will function.

Also, as an aside, Rubio is probably going to regret this. He's going to find over time that the exceptional staff of State, working on all the world's issues, were the actual ticket into influence. The more he cuts, the more he sacrifices his own power base.

State Dept. layoffs led by team of outsiders willing to ‘break stuff’ Interviews with more than 60 people detail a frenetic, arbitrary process underpinning the Trump administration’s far-reaching overhaul of the State Department.

Important reporting on the nihilistic evisceration of a Department. No one who ever served at State would disagree with the idea of reform or even reapportionment of staffing. But, as with other DOGE cuts, this was incompetently done.

wapo.st/3TO76Ju

If true that Trump chose a more modest option, then this may be a choice he comes to regret if reconstitution rather than a deal manifests.

As I wrote in January (and have reiterated since), if you're going to use force, you have to accept that this will a) make diplomacy harder; and, b) require sustained, continued force. A deal was the better option. But, once you're in it, you have to be really sure of success.

We knew a fair amount of this, but the comments indicated we pulled our punch are important.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...

That's actually what I assumed. But, I don't have any independent info either way so was reacting to what's on the "tape."

But, not if your purpose was to eliminate any enrichment program in Iran, full stop.

This solidifies further my thinking that Netanyahu acted not because of the 61st day or because of an imminent breakout. It's because this sounds like the making of a new JCPOA.

With the large number of advanced centrifuges Iran has, I don't think even going back to natural brings Iran's breakout time to a year. You'd have to uninstall centrifuges too.

To be clear, sure sounds like there was space for negotiations and a deal, which is the central pt.

Um. Natural uranium is 0.7% U-235. So, not really sure what this means enrichment-wise. Enriching depleted up to natural? Just enriching and then downblending in some weird loop? Kind of confusing.

And, of course, that's not the only factor in breakout time.

Looking forward to this Wednesday.

Iran has an obligation today to give the IAEA information on its sites and access to safeguarded material. Don't take my word for it: search for Iran IAEA INFCIRC214. You can read the text yourself (www.iaea.org/sites/defaul...). Lots of references to "without delay."

My read: An interesting way of slicing this salami, but to be clear, the safeguards agreement requires access to Iranian nuclear material covered by it (among other things). If Iran does not provide that access -- regardless of its internal process -- then Iran is not in compliance.

Per this post, he says "We'll remain committed to NPT & safeguards agreement with the IAEA. Our cooperation with IAEA has not stopped but will be pursued in a new way & through SNSC. SNSC will decide on IAEA demand for monitoring case by case, with an eye on safety & security considerations."

On the other site, someone [at IranNuances] posted a video of Iranian FM Araghchi outlining Iran's approach to the IAEA after the attack.

YouTube video by Senator Chris Van Hollen Standing in solidarity with fired State Department employees

Today I stood in solidarity with the over 1300 State Dept public servants who were fired by Trump and Rubio. These are American patriots who’ve dedicated their lives to advancing US interests & values. 

This is America in Retreat. Our adversaries are smiling. A bad day for America.

Flagging this fellowship opportunity to my former colleagues at the former US Department of State

www.civilservicestrong.org/update/appli...

That's quite good.

Seemed inevitable but shouldn't obscure the near-term damage this will do to US national security and the diplomatic function, and the long-term damage it will do to recruitment and retention of high-quality folks. People were already taking effective pay cuts to serve and this is their thanks.

AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH