Center for Economic and Policy Research

⚠️ When the AI bubble collapses, the risk of recession is high. @deanbaker13.bsky.social points out that a 3.4% drop in the labor compensation ratio equals about $1 trillion in annual spending that would disappear if the bubble pops. ⚠️
https://bit.ly/4q2FaPH

Black unemployment surged from 6.2% to 7.5% in 2025, a level that would signal a recession if experienced nationwide. @a-austin.bsky.social  urges federal, state, and local policymakers to reverse recent policy rollbacks and restore protections for Black workers. 
https://bit.ly/4qQIoHe

China’s efforts to boost the birth rate have failed. Is coercion next? China's birth rate has fallen to a record low, prompting concerns about the country's demographic future and the potential for more coercive measures.

Today is "running out of workers" day at the Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0... Tomorrow will be AI is taking all the jobs day. I guess the fact that these concerns are completely contradictory is too simple for the great minds at the WaPo.

What we're all thinking:

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YouTube video by Center for Economic and Policy Research State of the Unions: What the Latest Data Tell Us

Next was an informative panel on the US union landscape at @ceprdc.bsky.social with @hcbrown.bsky.social, Suresh Naidu, and Aurelia Glass www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5GW... (3/7)

Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian imports would cause a $300B tax hike, roughly $2.4K per household. @deanbaker13.bsky.social says this will hit American pockets hard, as 96% of Trump’s tariffs are paid by US citizens and businesses.
https://bit.ly/4kd2hph

The Trump administration’s mishandling of #FEMA has left the US dangerously underprepared for the next major crisis. Staffing cuts, leadership turmoil, and a lack of clear direction have crippled the agency’s disaster response. 

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President Lula of Brazil spoke yesterday with President Trump and agreed to meet soon in Washington to discuss the situation in Venezuela, Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza, and the fight against organized crime. These updates and more here ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/bd6ymtn6

Dismantling #FEMA is a mistake, one that could cost lives. @mattsedlar.bsky.social says the Trump administration’s lack of leadership will weaken national disaster response when the next crisis hits. 
https://bit.ly/4qvGtHE

The Trump administration’s mishandling of #FEMA has left the US dangerously underprepared for the next major crisis. Staffing cuts, leadership turmoil, and a lack of clear direction have crippled the agency’s disaster response. 

HAPPENING NOW: Where's the BLS union data? We're not waiting—join our expert panel breaking down the state of worker power and organizing trends. Steven Greenhouse, Suresh Naidu, Hayley Brown & Aurelia Glass are live. Join: https://bit.ly/MissingBLS

Black families with high medical expenses pay over 4X what the typical Black family pays ($11.6K vs $2.65K). For Hispanic families, it's 5X more ($12.6K vs $2.5K).

Health care costs are deepening racial wealth gaps. Our latest research:

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By fast-tracking a bilateral investment treaty with the UAE and bypassing Ecuador's judiciary and legislature, President Noboa is ignoring the Constitution and the will of his people in favor of corporate colonialism, CEPR experts Mario Osorio and Pedro Labayen Herrera write. https://bit.ly/4sVwqgT

Lift the Siege | Phenomenal World Will Caracas be able to mount an economic recovery in the aftermath of the US assault?

If the nearly $5 billion of Venezuela's special drawing rights (SDRs) are released, it could help the country's central bank fight inflation & purchase urgent necessities like food + medicine, CEPR's Alex Main and Ivana Vasic-Lalovic write in @phenomenalworld.bsky.social.

For the first time in decades, BLS isn't releasing January union data. What does this mean for workers? Join @hcbrown.bsky.social, @jaureliaglass.bsky.social & leading experts as we fill the gaps with CEPR's independent analysis. https://bit.ly/MissingBLS

For the first time in decades, BLS isn't releasing January union data. What does this mean for workers? Join @hcbrown.bsky.social, @jaureliaglass.bsky.social & leading experts as we fill the gaps with CEPR's independent analysis. https://bit.ly/MissingBLS

Mission-driven development professional wanted. Shape CEPR's fundraising future through donor cultivation, grant writing, and strategic campaigns.

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Haiti in-depth: As gang violence breeds hunger, Haitians seek homegrown solutions Rampant gang violence has pushed the population to new levels of hunger, highlighting the urgent need to tackle food insecurity’s underlying causes.

CEPR's @jakobjohnston.bsky.social cited today in @newhumanitarian.bsky.social:

"After the [2010 earthquake in Haiti], humanitarian organizations distributed more than 40 million pounds of food. Almost all of it was imported. For many local farmers, that was a death sentence."

These prophets of economic doom are worried about another collapse The current investment boom is triggering déjà vu for some economists and traders who successfully predicted past economic crashes.

@deanbaker13.bsky.social  called the dot-com crash in 2000. He called the housing crisis of 2008. Now Dean is shifting his portfolio away from #AI stocks.

Dean, the CEPR economist who's been right twice before, warns @washingtonpost.com  the #AI bubble may soon pop. Read:

These prophets of economic doom are worried about another collapse The current investment boom is triggering déjà vu for some economists and traders who successfully predicted past economic crashes.

@deanbaker13.bsky.social  called the dot-com crash in 2000. He called the housing crisis of 2008. Now Dean is shifting his portfolio away from #AI stocks.

Dean, the CEPR economist who's been right twice before, warns @washingtonpost.com  the #AI bubble may soon pop. Read:

In this scenario Trump's oil play could actually help Venezuelans It would take major systematic changes both commercially and in the government, and it's unclear whether any of that is in the works yet

"If, as Venezuelan authorities have insisted, [Trump's oil] plan ensures that the Venezuelan economy receives its legal share of the proceeds from oil sales, then those proceeds will fuel a much-needed economic recovery," Francisco Rodriguez writes in Responsible Statecraft.

Venezuela, U.S. Power, and the Latin American Left | KPFA As Congress considers a war powers vote, economist Mark Weisbrot places the Trump administration’s attack on Venezuela in the context of a longstanding bipartisan campaign to undermine left-leaning governments across Latin America. He discusses the differing visions Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio have for the region, one focused on oil and the … Continued

CEPR co-director Mark Weisbrot discussed US sanctions on Venezuela, illegal military strikes on the country, and how five congressional War Powers’ resolutions in Congress have created real pressure on the Trump administration with @kpfaradio.

Unemployment edged down from 4.6% to 4.4% in December, but the labor market continues to show signs of weakening. @deanbaker13.bsky.social breaks down the latest jobs report:  https://bit.ly/4pF4rPF

When the billionaires don’t blink at interference with the Federal Reserve, it’s time for concern.

@deanbaker13.bsky.social says Trump’s criminal investigation of Jerome Powell is a retaliatory move that threatens Fed independence.
https://bit.ly/4sASwoN

Working families spend nearly $4,000 annually on health care Around 1 in 8 working families spend more than 10% of their income on health care.

Great coverage of our research by @axios.com: Higher earners pay more for healthcare. But low-income families pay the price.

1 in 5 spend over 10% of income on care—2X the rate of wealthier families. The burden falls hardest on those already barely making it.

US Sanctions Policy: Frequently Asked Questions Explore CEPR’s focus areas by topic and region. Our work provides timely, data-driven research and analysis on a broad range of critical domestic and international policy issues.

Sanctions are now a go-to instrument of U.S. foreign policy, but this explosion in economic coercion has occurred with little discussion of the enormous human cost. Learn all about these unilateral tools in our updated FAQ.