Chris Annous

If you haven’t done so already, have a go at our super short quiz to see what segment you are in our new model.

The segments capture worldviews really powerfully so it’s illuminating to see how your values differ from other Britons.

(A prize if you can guess my segment!)

Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election?
Our new report, based on one of the most in-depth analyses of Lib Dem voter attitudes to the environment, suggests it could.

A🧵of the key charts 👇🏼

Thanks Dave - there's lots more detail and insights in the actual report if you have a chance to read that!

Yes this really came out in the focus groups - the actual report goes into much more depth on this!

There's much more analysis in the full report so please do read it and let me know your thoughts👇🏼
t.co/vmNHsMdeEB

The conjoint experiment found increasing awareness of Lib Dems environmental policies could be a significantly stronger driver of votes to the party than their more prominent anti-President Trump positioning.

This is the case for existing Lib Dem voters and voters as a whole.

To robustly assess the potential electoral benefits of bold environmental positioning for the Liberal Democrats - we ran a policy conjoint experiment, comparing it with other potential dividing lines for the party with Labour.

Both of these policies garnered strong support in our focus group conversations.

Our Liberal Democrat voters, particularly in North Cornwall, held deep anger towards water companies' perceived profiteering. They were also perplexed as to why so few homes had solar panels.

Two clear winners emerged:

1)Protecting the Water Restoration Fund so water company fines are ringfenced for nature improvements.

2)Tightening the Future Homes Standard so solar panels and heat pumps are mandated on new build homes.

Landing media coverage is a real challenge for the Lib Dems.
One way of getting it is through stunts.

Another is having genuinely distinct and substantive policies to push.
We tested some of the party's bolder and more distinctive environmental policies to see which land best.

Low awareness of the party's environmental policies looks to be driving this failure - knowledge of Lib Dem environmental positions is even worse than knowledge of their positions in other policy areas.

This is driving perceptions the party doesn't prioritise the environment.

However, the Lib Dems are not currently seizing this opportunity. Their own voters put the party only slightly ahead of the Green Party on environmental issues and they trail far behind among the general public more broadly.

There is a real opening for the Lib Dems to position themselves as the strongest major party on environmental issues.

Lib Dem voters, and Britons more generally, think both the previous and current government's environmental record is poor - particularly on sewage pollution.

Lib Dem voters also don't believe there is a trade-off between action to protect local nature and the environment at the global level.

Instead, they see the two as reinforcing each other.

Liberal Democrat MPs also don't need to worry about being seen to be spending too much time campaigning on environmental issues over more bread and butter issues.

Lib Dem voters say they would respond positively to seeing their local MP raise environmental issues in Parliament.

There is also no need for the party's MPs to engage in environmental NIMBYISM.

Lib Dem voters say they would feel more negatively towards their local MP if they opposed a, hypothetical, solar farm project in their constituency on the grounds of protecting local green spaces.

Lib Dem voters are also significantly more willing to incur costs to support environmental action - providing Ed Davey with greater scope to be bold on environmental issues than other party leaders.

Lib Dem voters also see the environment as an important electoral issue.

Asked for the top reasons for voting for the party - a third of Lib Dem voters select at least one environmental issue, making it the biggest single driver of votes to the party.

From our focus groups of Lib Dem voters in Wokingham and North Cornwall - it became clear that Lib Dem voters see tackling the environment as a moral issue.

The conversations revealed an emotional attachment to nature - particularly at the local level.

The environment is a real priority for Lib Dem voters - they are nearly twice as likely than Britons overall to say climate change and the environment is one of the top issues facing Britain today.

Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election?
Our new report, based on one of the most in-depth analyses of Lib Dem voter attitudes to the environment, suggests it could.

A🧵of the key charts 👇🏼

The extent to which Reform have cannibalised the Conservatives' vote is remarkable.

In last week's poll, 2019 Conservative voters were more likely to say they would vote for Reform than vote for the Conservatives.

Reform pose an existential threat for the Tories.

We often talk about politicians being out of step with public opinion.

The Youth Mobility scheme is a huge example of this - just the other way round to what we’re used to!

Our quant & qual research strongly suggests there would be no public backlash to a youth mobility scheme.

Our latest MRP shows just how fragmented the electorate is and how challenging Labour’s situation is.

It aligns with what we’ve been picking up in our focus groups as well - a complete loss of confidence in Labour’s ability to deliver a meaningful improvement to people’s lives.

On Reform. Their support is real and they deserve to be taken seriously.

That also means the media not just asking whether they can win but also scrutinising what they want to do if do actually win.

For example, it’s hard for us to ascertain whether in Blue Wall Lib Dem constituencies, voters will want to tactically vote to stop the Tories from winning their constituency or to tactically vote to remove Labour from government this far out from the next General Election.

Our latest MRP provides strong evidence that Reform’s post-election bounce and rise in support across the country is very real.

For the Lib Dems & Greens it’s important to note our model doesn’t take full account of tactical voting, as we don’t yet know how that will work out…

If Starmer's relaunch is to be successful, increasing awareness of their popular policies will be key as Luke's thread outlines.

This means being much more disciplined in talking about these successes - particularly as it's much harder to get news coverage of the things governments are doing well.

What particularly stuck out to me when producing this chart was just how few people are aware the government has deported 10,000 illegal migrants since taking office.

Yet despite spending a good chunk of yesterday's PMQs attacking Badenoch's migration record, Starmer didn't mention this once.