If he signed with the Reds that’s what I’d be hoping for.

Just think it’s much more likely the Ks and injuries catch up to him than it is that he can keep up his 2024 production

I’ll happily eat crow if/when I’m wrong, but I don’t think that TON contract will age well for the O’s

I think Cole Schoenwetter is a guy that is going to take a huge step forward in 2025

The good
- 29.1 K%
- 48.7 GB%
- 4 pitch mix (4SFB, SI, CV, CH)
- 20 years old

The bad
- 21.5 BB% 🤮

Obviously the command/control is an issue, but there’s a lot of clay to work with. I think he’ll figure it out

I can understand your reasoning. I’m not really sold on McLain being able to stay healthy for 162 games (which I know is insanely hypocritical to say considering CES also just missed an entire season)

Maybe I’m naive, maybe it’s wishful thinking, or maybe I’m just plain dumb, but I’m willing to bet big on CES having a post-hype breakout year.

I don’t have any stats to back this up, this is strictly going off vibes.

Today is a great day for the Reds to trade for Brandon Lowe.

Guaranteed money received this offseason

Player A - $67M

Player B - $21.05M

Player C - $34M

Player D - $63.675M

I know this is greatly oversimplified things, but still think it puts things into perspective

2022-2024

Player A
373.1 IP
14.4 K-BB%
4.36 ERA
4.53 FIP
3.1 fWAR

Player B
359 IP
14.7 K-BB%
3.31 ERA
3.79 FIP
5.3 fWAR

Player C
296.1 IP
14.3 K-BB%
4.43 ERA
4.25 FIP
3.4 fWAR

Player D
444 IP
19.1 K-BB%
4.24 ERA
4.20 FIP
5.0 fWAR

Hey @officialreds.bsky.social

In the lab cooking up lineups

v RHP
Friedl CF
EDLC SS
McLain 2B
Michael Conforto LF
Stephenson C
Carlos Santana 1B
CES DH
Candelario 3B
Steer/Fraley RF

v LHP
Steer LF
EDLC SS
McLain 2B
Stephenson C
Santana 1B
Candelario 3B
Fairchild/Conforto RF
CES DH
Friedl CF

Aside from his rookie year and COVID year, 2024 was the first time he appeared in less than 55 games and pitched less than 62 innings.

With a fully healthy year I think he’ll bounce back and be a reliable bullpen arm.

Maybe I’m crazy, but I still think that Emilio Pagan can be a really good RP for the Reds in 2025.

After coming off the IL (for the 2nd time) on 8/11, he pitched in 16 games, totaling:

- 17.2 IP, 25.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 3.28 FIP
- 108 Stuff+, 111 Location+, 113 Pitching+
- best FB velo of the year

👀

Jesse Winker vs RHP in 2024

12.9 BB%
.258 AVG
.366 OBP
.422 SLG
.788 OPS
124 wRC+

Here’s how he would’ve ranked among the 14 Reds with 100+ PA vs RHP last year in those categories:

1st
5th
1st
5th
2nd
2nd

Zach Maxwell is going to turn heads next season out of the Reds bullpen with his electric fastball and nasty cutter

The command will likely
hold him back, but he will be an extremely fun pitcher to watch

2023
5.52 ERA - 4.29 FIP - 4.28 xFIP
12.0 K-BB%
4.46 SIERA

2024
3.71 ERA - 3.93 FIP - 3.62 xFIP
15.2 K-BB%
3.89 SIERA

Brady Singer’s predictive metrics are pretty fascinating.

Usually stats like a good K-BB% and SIERA in year 1 led to a good ERA in year 2, but Singer is the exact opposite.

2021
4.91 ERA - 4.04 FIP - 4.11 xFIP
13.3 K-BB%
4.30 SIERA

2022
3.23 ERA - 3.58 FIP - 3.30 xFIP
18.5 K-BB%
3.40 SIERA

Cheap Bob at it again. SMH

I like Montas

I’m sorry but if Frankie Montas (4.84 ERA, 1.4 fWAR) is getting $17M AAV on the open market then $21.05M for Nick Martinez is an absolute bargain.

Another Reds legend off the board.

If you ever get mad about the Dodgers and they’re deferred contracts, just remember that the Cincinnati Reds were paying Ken Griffey Jr as recent as……2024.

The Dodgers didn’t invent deferred contracts 🤷

He did play 2B/SS all through college and MiLB, although that doesn’t mean he played it well

I think 2B would be the best bet, but then you’re moving McLain.

Unless McLain can play a competent CF and Friedl is kicked to a corner

I don’t think BABIP is everything though. His x stats and batted ball data aren’t particularly impressive, especially if he’s expected to be a LF slugger

If he played 2B being a perennial 20/20 man would make him one of the best hitting 2B in MLB.

But as a LF he’s towards the bottom of the barrel - only Benintendi, Verdugo, and Bryan De La Cruz had worse wRC+ as a LF in 2024

Spencer Steer is a conundrum that I can’t figure out

You can pencil him in for ~20HR+20SB, which is great

But he was also 19th and 20th among the 23 qualified LFers in fWAR and wRC+, respectively, in 2024, which is not great

He’s good enough to play everyday, but his ceiling is a 2ish WAR player?

Are the Dodgers ruining baseball with their spending?

Quick reminder on what the Yankees were doing 15-20 years ago:

Red

I’d be for it if they could get him for the same deal that Mahle got with the Rangers (would be even better if they could add a team option on year 2)