Eric Min

Next Wednesday, May 28, at 1 PM ET, I will be part of the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation's "Knowledge Against Violence" series, discussing my book, "Words of War: Negotiations as a Tool of Conflict."

The event is virtual. Event and registration information here: www.hfg.org/conversation...

Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict Eric Min, Assistant Professor, Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles

Next Wednesday at 12:30 PM PT, I will be presenting my book, "Words of War," at UCLA's Burkle Center with @maggietheprof.bsky.social serving as moderator. The event is both in-person and on Zoom, so please attend if you're free and interested.

More info: www.international.ucla.edu/burkle/event...

Thank you so much!

I was lucky enough to have Miranda Melcher at the @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social interview me about my book, "Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict." If you're interested in hearing about the book's origins, argument, and applications, please take a listen.

newbooksnetwork.com/words-of-war

In Ukraine and Elsewhere, Is Third-Party Diplomacy Helpful in Ending Wars? - HFG As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth year, the role of outside countries in restoring peace has taken on heightened urgency. Historically, third-party countries have been willing to sp...

The Henry Frank Guggenheim Foundation was kind enough to help write this piece on how my research on wartime negotiations can apply to ongoing diplomatic efforts involving the Russia-Ukraine war. I am deeply appreciative of the Foundation’s support of this work.

www.hfg.org/insights/in-...

My book, “Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict,” is both on display at the @cornellupress.bsky.social booth at ISA 2025 and is also available to read for free as an ebook over the next month! Please take a look in whatever form you prefer.

Words of War by Eric Min | Hardcover | Cornell University Press In Words of War, Eric Min pulls back the curtain on when, why, and how belligerents negotiate while fighting. Of all interstate conflicts across the last two centuries, two-thirds have ended through.....

If the overall argument interests you, please take a look at my new book, "Words of War: Negotiations as a Tool of Conflict," which is published as part of Cornell's Studies in Security Affairs series.

www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Could a U.S. Peace Initiative Backfire in Ukraine? - IGCC

On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I wrote a brief piece for @ucigcc.bsky.social on the potential perils of diplomacy in the ongoing war—both in general and in the context of recent initiatives by the Trump administration.

ucigcc.org/blog/could-a...

Thank you very much, Harold!

Thank you so much! I hope you find it worth your time.

If this thread interested you and you would like to see more, you can use this QR code and discount code to get the book at a discounted price.

Thanks for reading—both this post and hopefully the whole book!

Rather than thinking that it "cannot hurt" to promote diplomacy during war, or that we should just "give war a chance," my theory offers guidance about when and how diplomacy can be used to help settle wars—or when it can be exploited by belligerents to potentially win them.

On the scholarly front, my book challenges the bargaining model of war's view of diplomacy as mere cheap talk. On the policy front, I offer insights on third-party involvement in wars and highlight difficult tradeoffs in using diplomacy to create short- versus longer-term peace.

The third empirical approach involves using computational text analysis and machine learning tools to study the 1950-53 Korean War. Looking at daily military operations reports and full transcripts of armistice talks, I show how my theory explains fine-grained intra-war behavior.

Studies of the 1849 War of the Roman Republic, 1995 Cenepa Valley War, and 1948-49 Arab-Israeli War demonstrate how belligerents use insincere negotiations to buy time to militarily regroup and divert political blame for engaging in hostilities.

The second empirical approach is case studies. I analyze battlefield activity and diplomatic activity in five wars. A comparison of the 1897 Greco-Turkish War and the 1974 Turco-Cypriot War shows how diplomatic pressure affects negotiation in two wars involving the same states.

I substantiate my argument using three different empirical approaches. The first involves statistical analysis of two new datasets that track battlefield activity and negotiations at the daily level for 92 interstate wars between 1823 and 2003.

Put together, sincere negotiations are most likely when external diplomatic pressures are low and the battlefield has revealed a clear trend favoring one side. Insincere negotiations are most likely when external pressures are high and the battlefield offers unclear information.

Two factors determine whether and how belligerents will negotiate. The first is amount of pressure that outside parties can place on belligerents to engage in diplomacy. The second is the degree of information obtained from fighting on the battlefield.

I provide a theory that emphasizes two forms of negotiation. One is sincere, where belligerents engage in good-faith attempts to settle a conflict. The other is insincere, where belligerents intend to exploit talks to curry political favor and prepare for further hostilities.

Two-thirds of all interstate wars over the last two centuries have ended through negotiated settlement. Negotiations clearly matter in understanding when and how wars end, but we do not fully understand when or why talks occur, much less when they are more likely to forge peace.

I am elated to say that my book, "Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict," is now published and available to order!

In the book, I argue and demonstrate that negotiations are not only used to end wars but can also be wielded to fight them.

A summary thread is below.

Thanks, Calvin! I must admit that I also think the cover is awesome.

I just received an advance copy of my book, Words of War! I am thrilled to physically hold it.

The book argues that negotiations are not only used to end wars but also to fight them.

Words of War comes out on February 15, 2025. See more info: www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Now on #FirstView: Racial Tropes in the Foreign Policy Bureaucracy: A Computational Text Analysis, by @carsonaust.bsky.social, @ericmin.bsky.social and Maya Van Nuys.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Why America Has Failed to Forge an Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Pressuring belligerents to talk rarely works—and sometimes backfires.

In a new @foreignaffairs.bsky.social piece, I argue that constant attempts to push for negotiations in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas may be doing more harm than good. A different diplomatic approach—albeit a more difficult one—may marginally increase prospects for settlement.

I am so genuinely honored to learn that I've been selected for UCLA's Distinguished Teaching Award. My earliest desire to become a professor came from a desire to teach. I am thankful to be around colleagues and students who make teaching such a valued and worthwhile endeavor.

I could never live up to @jkertzer.bsky.social’s magisterial posts, so I’ll just quote it and add that I’m very proud of our work here. The project went through a lot between late 2018 and today. If you care about foreign policy, text analysis, the Cold War, or decision making, please take a look!