Anton Strezhnev

I would have guessed that the leak came from Harvard insiders wanting to get more public pressure against the deal, but apparently it was from the White House?

Is this all just really bad non-random non-response? Did the handful of firms that are fine respond quickly but everyone else was like “we need to unfuck our supply chains - the BLS questionnaire can wait!”

The Nation’s Data at Risk: Ongoing Monitoring The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest community of statisticians, the “Big Tent for Statistics.

Now that threats to federal statistics have gotten your attention, check out the damage that’s already been done:

www.amstat.org/the-nations-...

Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.

It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.

Rodeo Red's Red-Hot, Rootin'-Tootin' Chili Rodeo Red's Red-Hot, Rootin'-Tootin' Chili was a chili recipe originating in the 20th century. While brushing up on "classic American cuisine", Neelix created Rodeo Red's Red-Hot, Rootin'-Tootin' Chil...

The thread so far has really underrated Neelix memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Rodeo_R...

🚨 Excited to share a new working paper with an exceptional former student of mine, Helena Gu. The paper looks at the impact of one of the largest zoning reforms in US history: the Minneapolis 2040 plan. We find significant impacts on home prices:
(1/N)
ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps...

Yeah, they’re winging it

the coefficient on post malone is an estimate of the average treatment effect of malone so long as there are parallel malones in the pre period. therefore, post malone is irrelevant without first considering pre malone.

Lando Calrissian references are frankly too generous b/c of Billy Dee cool - I prefer Simon Callow’s bit part from the JCVD Street Fighter movie.

Georgia Papadogeorgou, Zhaoyan Song, Guido Imbens, Fabrizia Mealli: Causal Inference when Intervention Units and Outcome Units Differ https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.20231 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.20231 https://arxiv.org/html/2507.20231

Utterly feckless elites.

Total, comprehensive failure of every class of civil society institution to counter the lawless authoritarianism. All just for this One Very Special Boy.

Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal MAKING GLOBAL HISTORY: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union (EU), fundamentally rebalancing the economic

Believe it or not, the EU-US trade deal just got messier.

The White House has published a fact-sheet about the agreement with claims that directly contradict the European Commission's version of events.

Let's take a closer look.

overheard in the discord

You definitely get SEs wrong, but I believe there’s a WLS - weighted estimator equivalence that you can recover just by passing weights to lm(). I always forget the results of the “you need to square (root) the weights” convo because of how they enter into the estimator though.

Companies Welcome EU-U.S. Trade Deal as Least Bad Outcome Business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic breathed a sigh of relief that the U.S. and European Union had averted a bruising trade war.

It’s wild that the Wall Street Journal appears to be the only elite-coded outlet not leading with a horse race “who got a Win?” frame, and instead is taking an objective look at the policy decisions and concluding that everyone is worse off

www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Yeah - we had a trial run with steel/aluminum where Biden lifted it for basically everyone but China. Though there, you at least had a policy fig leaf of “clean steel”

Is the issue the normalization? I always use it for the Hajek IPW estimator and it works correctly. I do think it’s a bit annoying that there’s like 3 different disciplinary languages for talking about “weights”

These are the people describing going from 1% to 15% tariffs as a “big win”!

The constituency for taxes on inputs is weak; the constituency for theatre criticism is strong.

The funny thing is that there’s no constituency with a strong material interest in the tariffs in the aggregate, but I’d bet the political media is going to hammer a Dem president who unilaterally reverses them b/c it looks “weak”

The problem is that the modal law review empirical paper in the *2020s* is a 80s/90s econ (or poli-sci) bad cross-sectional regression.

The part of Abundance that’s absolutely true is that we need fewer lawyers in govt and it’s even more true in foreign policy making. No regional studies training no point in you doing stuff that involves other places. Sorry screw your Supreme Court clerkship.

People who grew up after the rise of algorithmic platforms I really think just have no grasp of how different, and in many ways better, the internet used to be. The new incentives led to the rise of the genericized "content creator" and a turn to selling out not as a pejorative but an aspiration.

New UN ideal point estimates available. These are for the first time based on years rather than UNGA sessions. For more, see here: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Should be an equivalence test - this is clearly underpowered.

My Trade Secrets today. The supposed tariff deals governments have made with Trump, including the EU’s rather humiliating climbdown, will if anything only embolden him to demand more. Isn’t that a cheering prospect?

on.ft.com/4mjwB1u

Again, the fabricated justification here for imposing a 15% baseline tariff is the 1977 IEEPA. It's total BS. There's no "unique and extraordinary threat" to "national security." If there were, Trump wouldn't be constantly changing the numbers & then backing down. It's all wildly illegal.