Julian Hinz

Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social

There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇

NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.

Happening now ⬇️

Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

@julianhi.nz

#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung.

📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr

Jetzt anmelden! 👉
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(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...

unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇

Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation.
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz

Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️

Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n

Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n

Keynote speaker Andreas Moxnes from the Norwegian Business School stands in front of his presentation while delivering his speech.

RETHINK-GSC researcher Aleksandra Parteka, who is a professor of economics at the Gdańsk University of Technology and the host of the workshop, is gesturing while presenting her research on funding structures and university patenting.

Agnes Kügler, a RETHINK-GSC researcher and a senior economist at the WIFO, points to the formula used in her latest research on the effects of patent litigation and trade, which is displayed on the screen.

📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application.

Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...

#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU

(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...

Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...

📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz

…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏!
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social

Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...

Trump’s 'Liberation Day' marks a retreat from multilateralism. In this joint statement w/ @svrwirtschaft.bsky.social, CAE @cepii-paris.bsky.social the authors call on the EU to respond w/ strategic retaliation, support for EU firms & leadership in defending open trade www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

In dieser öffentlichen Vorlesung analysieren zwei Experten für Internationale Volkswirtschaftslehre – Professor Gerald Willmann, Ph.D., und Professor Dr. Julian Hinz (@julianhi.nz) von der Universität #Bielefeld – die wirtschaftlichen Hintergründe und Folgen dieser Entwicklung.

13.05.25, 18:30, H15

PS: To reiterate — the US tariffs are now still about 6x (six!) as high as they were in January. Or if you like big numbers, +500%. This is not a win for the US administration, they reduce their self-induced harm a bit.

Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.

Bottom line: Tariff pause reduces immediate damage, especially for the US, but uncertainty remains high. More data and scenarios on the Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Price impacts remain significant: 🇺🇸 US prices now reduced to (!) +4.27% within 1yr, 🇨🇳 China sees -1.51% deflationary pressure. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.38%), 🇪🇺 EU (-0.27%) similar to before. 3/n

There will be a big catching-up in Chinese exports to the US now — but remember, exports still face +30% tariffs: Within 1 year, we still see 🇨🇳 China’s export drop to US by -19.10%. 2/n

🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: US-China 90-day tariff pause provides short-term relief. US real GDP impact improves from -1.6% to -1.29%, and inflation eases to +4.3%. 🇨🇳 China’s real GDP loss shrinks to -0.5%. 🇩🇪 Germany and 🇪🇺 EU hardly move compared to previous situation (-0.22% and -0.14%). 1/n

Happening now ⬇️

How do China’s rare earth export restrictions shape global innovation and trade? 📈 Join the next - very timely - Kiel Trade Talk with @janschymik.bsky.social
👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz

#WIFO Research Brief: neue Zollpolitik der USA konfrontiert die EU mit wachsender handelspolitischer Unsicherheit. Drei Szenarien, mit denen die EU auf protektionistische Tendenzen reagieren kann, werden analysiert. @hendrikmahlkow.com @sonalichowdhry.bsky.social @julianhi.nz buff.ly/m5eXspM

CAVEAT: This is a trade model that we know works well for significant changes in trade costs. But what's here goes beyond trade—and beyond what this model captures. Take these numbers with a heavy dose of salt. 3/3

Should these new tariffs stay for some time, 🇺🇸 US imports from 🇪🇺 EU could rise (!), as they’re now cheaper than those from 🇨🇳 China, where imports collapse. 🇪🇺 imports from 🇨🇳 obviously increase, but far from flood: 🇨🇳 also redirects exports to other markets—as long as they don’t raise barriers too. 2/3