Paul Poast

From now on, I will be focusing on LinkedIn for posting on social media. I'll still use this platform to observe what people are saying, but I will be posting exclusively on LinkedIn.

If you don't already follow me there, you can find me here:

www.linkedin.com/in/paul-poas...

Trump’s Bailout of Argentina Is Not as Unusual as It Seems The U.S. pledge to bail out Argentina’s economy may be due to Trump’s bond with Milei, but it’s not unprecedented.

President Donald Trump might not be crying for Argentina, but he does seem concerned about the future of the country’s economy.

In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how the potential "Trump bailout" is just another instance of this time NOT being different.

War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why - Kindle edition by O'Brien, Phillips Payson. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why.

IR Book of the Week!

"War and Power" by @phillipspobrien.bsky.social. Book argues that the focus on what makes nations "Great Powers" has led to a skewed our understanding of the true sources of power, particularly in the context of war.

Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will acce... Trump introduced his Gaza Peace Plan yesterday. After a day to reflect on it, here are my thoughts: 1) WILL IT BE ADOPTED? Regardless of the content, it's not yet clear that the sides will accept t...

I shared my thoughts on Trump's "Gaza Peace Plan" 👇

TL,DR: There are some real positives, but unclear it will be accepted, hold, or enforced.

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

Additionally, there were a host of comments by Trump & Hegseth that are consistent with this recent @wpr.bsky.social column:

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/interstate-w...

My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not… | Pa... My immediate thoughts on the Hegseth/Trump speeches to all US Generals and Admirals: - This did not land well. It was a waste of time and a paternalizing message to group of people who will not toler...

Just posted my immediate thoughts regarding the Hegseth/Trump speeches: TL,DR -- this was a big mistake by both.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5 That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5 That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

ICYMI: "If the North Atlantic Treaty were to be written today, it might well be formulated as a consultative pact, with Article 4 being its core commitment."

My latest for @wpr.bsky.social explores a key implication of how NATO is responding to Russian airspace incursions.

An Ugly American berates the United Nations — and shames the rest of us Trump's angry speech before the General Assembly was "coarse absurdist theater"

Trump's UN speech was rooted in “an American First foreign policy” and Trump's own vision of the US as the "indispensable nation".

That is the thought I shared with @salon.com for this piece

www.salon.com/2025/09/27/a...

Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.

Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...

Fracturing of Democratic Institutions & the Variations of Autocracy Join Carnegie Council virtually for a Global Ethics Day event discussing the challenges democracies face and the implications of democratic backsliding.

Looking forward to joining this @carnegiecouncil.org event on Friday as part of "Global Ethics Day". We'll be discussing how we are in a World at War in the midst of democratic backsliding. Thanks to Joshua Acosta for the invitation.

You can RSVP here: info.carnegiecouncil.org/fracturing-d...

A Rush to Form Alliances Is Always a Bad Sign With a consolidation of competing alliance blocs, the world is entering a perilous time. It may only get worse.

Very true! As I wrote last year, always a worrying sign when a bunch of alliance pacts are forming at once

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/russia-nato-...

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5 That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

Here is the column

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article...

The main idea in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column is captured in this figure. During the 21st Century, consultative pacts have become the norm for alliance treaties. If the North Atlantic Treaty were written today, I'm not sure it would have Article 5.

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5 That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

NATO’s Article 4 Is the New Article 5 That NATO members invoked the alliance’s Article 4 treaty clause in response to Russia’s airspace incursions is a big deal.

Article 4, not Article 5, is now the bedrock of NATO. I explain what that means, and how it follows a general trend of alliances being about "consultation" rather than "mutual defense", in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books

IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex Amazon.com: AI, Automation, and War: The Rise of a Military-Tech Complex: 9780691265148: King, Anthony: Books

IR Book of the Week!

"AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

Prediction in international relations is hard, sometimes: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023) Click on the article title to read more.

I don't mean it in a braggadocious way, but I wrote about how prediction is hard...especially when it comes to world politics. Contrary to Trump's claims, you can't be right about everything.

Glad I could contribute to this forum on the relevance of the UN after 80 years. I see the UN -- specifically the UNSC -- as largely successful because, "The original purpose of the Security Council was to prevent war between the great powers, not to prevent the great powers from waging war."

The UN is Turning 80. Is It Still Relevant? From peace and security to climate and technology, Council experts weigh in on whether the United Nations can still deliver on its founding mission.

As the General Debate opens at #UNGA, Council experts @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social, @busbyj2.bsky.social, @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social, @kfriedhoff.bsky.social, @ckafura.bsky.social and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social weigh in on the UN's power and relevance. ⤵️

globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...

Multilateralism is facing serious challenges. Ian Hurd and Juliet Sorensen join @profpaulpoast.bsky.social to discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the UN's 80th anniversary.

📹 : brnw.ch/21wW01K

Marking #UN80 @global-affairs.bsky.social with a great panel on internationalism and intl institutions, feat. @profpaulpoast.bsky.social, @ianhurd.bsky.social, and Juliet Sorensen

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

ICYMI: in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I discuss how an embrace and even enthusiasm for using violence abroad inevitably links back to violence at home.

Recognizing Palestinian Statehood Isn’t Just Political Theater France, the U.K. and Canada are all prepared to recognize the state of Palestine. What does that actually mean in international relations?

With Britain, Canada, and Australia officially recognizing Palestine as a state, I'm re-upping this recent @wpr.bsky.social piece on the topic. Some worry that this recognition rewards Hamas. It's not clear to me how that is the case, since the recognition is conditional on Hamas not being in power.

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

During his Riverside sermon, MLK said that when a country embraces "massive doses of violence to solve its problems to bring about the changes it wanted" abroad, that directly leads to embracing the same approach home. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I explain how we are seeing that dynamic today

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

The ‘World at War’ Is Becoming Increasingly Lawless International and domestic violence, have long been seen as intrinsically linked, largely because they both can feed on one another.

It's not just that the world is violent. It's that the violence is now being openly embraced, even encourage...at home and abroad. I explore the world's growing "lawlessness" in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

A promotional graphic for the Council's 9/22 event, "The Future of Multilateralism: UN80 and Beyond," featuring headshots of speakers Ian Hurd, Juliet Sorensen, Cécile Shea, and Paul Poast and event details over a blue background.

Next week, join @polisciatnu.bsky.social's Ian Hurd, @loyolachicago.bsky.social's Juliet Sorensen, and Council fellows Cécile Shea and @profpaulpoast.bsky.social as they discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary. brnw.ch/21wVTkc

The Future of Multilateralism: UN80 and Beyond Cécile Shea, Juliet Sorensen, Ian Hurd, and Paul Poast discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary.

On Monday, I'm moderating this @global-affairs.bsky.social panel on the Future of the United Nations and Multilaterialism. It's going to be a great discussion. For those interested and in the Chicago area, hope you can make it!

globalaffairs.org/events/futur...