Joshua Black

Here's something absolutely cooked about books in Australia Winning authors pay tax. Mug punters, that's another story.

If you bet on the winner of the Miles Franklin, your windfall is tax free but if you win the Miles Franklin you pay tax. There's an easy and cheap way for the gov to help our best artists and writers. Make prizes tax free.
Thanks to @charlottewood.bsky.social & Melissa Lucashenko for their thoughts

Thank you Alice!!

YouTube video by The Australia Institute Blue Poles with Tom McIlroy | Australia's Biggest Book Club

You can watch or listen to the webinar here: youtu.be/tGZl6uSsDyE?...

A real privilege to talk with @tommcilroy.bsky.social about his book 'Blue Poles' for Australia's Biggest Book Club last week @australiainstitute.org.au. A lively and wonderful conversation about Jackson Pollock, abstract expressionism, 'Blue Poles' and Australian arts policy today!

Very excited that @ketanjoshi.co is working with @australiainstitute.org.au!!!

Check out his post on Woodside, dodgy offsets and the safeguard mechanism...

australiainstitute.org.au/post/the-saf...

Why the election’s closest seat went unnoticed: Too close to Calwell - The Australia Institute The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell was named “Australia’s most unpredictable seat” by The Age after the election and was – aside from those going to a recount – the last seat to be called. The ...

"The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell had "the most complex count in Australia's history", but almost nobody was talking about it before the election.

Why? Only four journalists live in the seat, the least of anywhere in Australia.

@rodcampbell.bsky.social writes ⤵️ #auspol

The joys of version control! Thanks for your very keen eye @darraghmurray.bsky.social

Why the election’s closest seat went unnoticed: Too close to Calwell - The Australia Institute The outer-Melbourne electorate of Calwell was named “Australia’s most unpredictable seat” by The Age after the election and was – aside from those going to a recount – the last seat to be called. The ...

australiainstitute.org.au/post/why-the...
@australiainstitute.org.au #Auspol2025

"the result in Calwell shows that the press has lost touch with the people, the result in Australia shows that the people have lost touch with the press"
Absolute fire from
@skyelark.bsky.social and @rodcampbell.bsky.social
on the coverage of the most interesting electoral race in 2025

Alfred Deakin's protectionist party retained office, despite the fact that it had fewer seats than the opposition (George Reid's anti-socialists) and the crossbench (comprised of the Labor Party). Opposition and crossbench hated one another more than they hated the government

"The long view matters here"
"some things seem more historic than they are, while the truly novel features of Australia’s current political landscape may pass us by"
My piece with @browne90.bsky.social on the size of the crossbench in historical context
australiainstitute.org.au/post/end-of-...

Assuming it is $3.1 million, with the $80,000 pension payment it becomes $3.18 million. If your balance on June 30, 2026, is greater than $3 million (say $3.1 million) then Division 296 tax will count a balance of $3.18 million in its calculations even if your balance at the start of the year was less than $3 million (in your case $2 million) One aspect of Division 296 tax where you have a greater than $3 million balance at the end of the year but a balance of less than $3 million at the start is that it will be calculated as if your year started with a $3 million balance. When determining your super earnings for Division 296 tax purposes you add together your year-end balance with pension payments and then deduct your balance at the start of the year from this. That’s $3.1 million plus $80,000 less $3 million. This will give you total super earnings for Division 296 purposes of $180,000. Despite the large increase in your fund from $2 million to $3.1 million, your Division 296 liability will be significantly less given it won’t include the increase in your total super below the $3 million threshold. The 15 per cent tax will only apply to the percentage that $180,000 represents of $3.18 million or 5.66 per cent. While 15 per cent of $180,000 is $27,000, 5.66 per cent of this results in a Division 296 tax liability of $1528. This assumes there is no change in the proposed tax when – and if – it finally becomes law.

Hilariously, the AFR is showing just how absurd is the scare campaign against the super tax changes.

They give an eg where someone's super goes from $2m to $3.18m in a year!

Yep a $1.18m increase.

How much extra tax?

$1,528!

OMG!! THAT'S OUTRAG... err... oh actually that's bugger all

End of the LNP Coalition would makes this the largest crossbench in the post-WWII era - The Australia Institute A large crossbench might seem unusual, but before WWII they were commonplace in Australia.

If the LNP remains split, @joshuablackjb.bsky.social & @browne90.bsky.social note it would be the biggest crossbench since WWII.

But before WWII big crossbenches were common #OffTheCharts
australiainstitute.org.au/post/end-of-...

Chinese Foreign Policy Brief - The Australia Institute The Chinese foreign policy establishment appear determined to resist Trump’s trade offensive. They have asserted China’s position on Taiwan through both direct pressure and diplomacy, and sought to ma...

A brilliant brief from @yuan-frank.bsky.social explaining how the Chinese foreign policy establishment views world affairs right now, including their determination to "resist Trump's trade offensive"
australiainstitute.org.au/report/chine...
@australiainstitute.org.au

Someone should tell Sheridan that Westminster parliaments are older than political parties

Newspapers spent 30 years picking winners. That streak's over. A new report has confirmed what plenty of voters have long suspected: newspaper endorsements don’t swing elections like they used to.

Great piece in National Account on declining legacy media influence, and The Oz's logical fallacies in response to that reality

"Printed newspapers are no longer the political kingmakers they once were."

@australiainstitute.org.au @skyelark.bsky.social

www.nationalaccount.com.au/p/newspaper-...

Absolutely cracking new report from @ieefainstitute.bsky.social @adenisryan.bsky.social

Japanese gas companies on-sell more Australian gas than Australian domestic use.

Read it and weep. Big gas is taking the piss. 1/2 @australiainstitute.org.au
ieefa.org/resources/ho...

Thank you very much Gavin!

The band is breaking up: has the Coalition stopped making sense? This is not the first time the Liberals and Nationals have gone their own ways - but this time they may find going solo is extremely hard.

Today’s coalition breakup is the latest in a much longer history of separations and reconciliations between the Libs and Nats #Auspol
Here is my piece on this for @theconversation.com

theconversation.com/the-band-is-...

By ‘changing media landscape’ we mean several interrelated forces and features…including this, yes 😂

Declining legacy media influence on Australian elections - The Australia Institute Securing newspaper endorsements was once a key part of running a successful Australian election campaign, through which Australian media shaped Australian politics. Televised debates between the prime...

Following the government's substantial victory (without key newspapers in its corner) they now have an unprecedented opportunity to govern boldly, without fear of what major newspapers might say.
australiainstitute.org.au/report/decli...

The first two points are clearly gratuitous. (1) We studied a 30-year time period, and 1993 changes little. (2) We have called media moguls, "moguls". 🤯
(3) The piece says that editorials never mattered, but fails to explain why newspapers kept on printing them! 5/6

This morning,
@theaustralian.bsky.social had a crack at our analysis. They say it needed to include 1993 election, that it uses "romantic" language to describe media proprietors, and that we fail their "test of political reality and logic" 4/6

TV leaders' debates have declined in relevance too.
@skynewsau.bsky.social made plenty of hay with their "high stakes" debate this time, but it was seen live by max 2% of voters. 3/6

The decline of newspapers' influence over elections is a reflection of the changing media landscape. The AES data in the graph below shows that the internet has recently outstripped papers and TV as main source of election news. 2/6

Australian newspapers used to be good at backing winners. Over the past 30 years, most major newspapers backed the winner. Until 2022 and 2025, that is, when newspaper editorials came down on one side and voters came down on the other. 1/6 #Auspol2025

Declining legacy media influence on Australian elections - The Australia Institute Securing newspaper endorsements was once a key part of running a successful Australian election campaign, through which Australian media shaped Australian politics. Televised debates between the prime...

Here's the great new paper by Skye Predavec and @joshuablackjb.bsky.social

australiainstitute.org.au/report/decli...

The Aus's Dennis Shanahan devoted a column to @australiainstitute.org.au 's new report on declining media power & this was the best he could do:

"the big election editorial has never counted for
much with voters. To suggest there’s been a decline of their influence ignores the political reality." 🧵

Declining legacy media influence on Australian elections - The Australia Institute Securing newspaper endorsements was once a key part of running a successful Australian election campaign, through which Australian media shaped Australian politics. Televised debates between the prime...

You can read our full report here: australiainstitute.org.au/report/decli...

@skyelark.bsky.social @rodcampbell.bsky.social

In response to @australiainstitute.org.au research about declining media influence in Aus elections, @theaustralian.bsky.social says newspaper endorsements "never counted for much" in the first place! 🤦‍♂️
Leaders can now govern boldly, without glancing over their shoulder at these guys all the time