Nigel Gould-Davies

Absolutely fascinating in essence and in detail.

And I've heard Edmund Burke's views described in many ways, but never as "complete bollocks".

Putin has thrown away a strong diplomatic hand. He is far more focused on closer ties with China and DPRK than on a compromise in Ukraine. He still believe he can win the war. But time may no longer be on his side. / end

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

A bad diplomatic month for Russia. See also US bombing of close ally Iran, NATO 5% commitment (and warm atmospherics), EU's big new sanctions package.

How different from Vance at Munich, transatlantic disarray, Zelensky's Oval Office meeting etc. Something has shifted. /3

Six months ago, Trump's policies and rhetoric tilted strongly to Putin. Today their relations have never been worse.

Many doubt Trump's "50-day deadline". But it is the first ultimatum he has issued to Putin. Flunking it wd redouble charges of TACO and sanctions momentum in Congress /2
/2

An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Thank you.

Personal news, which I rarely share here.

My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others".

My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.

On people not minding abt high salaries for sports stars, Nozick makes this argument with his Wilt Chamberlain example in Anarchy, State and Utopia.

I wouldn't dismiss Young's prediction of constant IQ tests so fast. We live in an audit society where more and more of our performance is measured.

Two fascinating points from David:

- Farage glows in a room;

- Trump moves abruptly from charm to charisma, very different things, as he begins an interview.

Should Obama be mentioned in a discussion of charisma?

Neal Ascherson · What Can Be Called Treason: Pétain’s Defence The trial of Marshal Pétain began on 23 July 1945 and lasted until 15 August. The small Paris courtroom was crowded...

Worth considering Marshal Pétain for a future political trial?

www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin.

"As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."

The Invisible Russia-Ukraine Battlefield In Russia’s war against Ukraine, electronic warfare, including signal-jamming, anti-drone weapons, and innovative protections for critical military systems, has become a key piece of the conflict.

If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...

Fascinating to learn that classically-educated colonial administrators of the British Raj banned Gandhi's translation into Gujarati of Plato's account of the trial of Socrates.

And that Orwell disliked Gandhi.

Most kind! Your kind words are enough. Hope you are well.

Never thought I'd see a potato shortage in Belarus.

Thank you, Scott.

Personal news, which I rarely share here.
Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.

Chapeau

Another superb episode, full of contemporary resonance. @robertsaunders.bsky.social fluent, erudite concision, without a single er or um, is a thing of wonder. Look forward to Gary Gerstle next week.

Very interesting as always. But I'm sceptical that Trotsky was more moderate than Stalin. Crushed Kronstadt rebellion, called for militarisation of labour. In some ways he was most extreme of all.

"Churchill offered blood, sweat and tears. Johnson offered cake." Just brilliant @ppfideas.bsky.social

Ends with a delicious coup de grâce for the Techno-optimist manifesto: "the least funny thing I have ever read"...

"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate."

@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender"

www.iiss.org/online-analy...

What is stopping Europe from taking Russian Central Bank assets, frozen since February 2022?

Who is doing research on prospects for more US LNG exports to Europe? Technical/econ/pol etc dimensions.

Only in past century have values really mattered (and unevenly) in foreign policy. Before then, shared interests drove policies and underpinned alliances. So MAGA is just a reversion to type. Europe can make a compelling case that deep ties best serve enduring US interests. Who will do this? /end

Smart deals can cement shared interests. More US LNG and oil sales to Europe will weaken Russia. Transferring Russian Central Bank assets will help Ukraine buy US weapons

Transatlantic relations will be more pragmatic and their political economy will shift in America’s favour. But... /5

iii. Russia is not only threat to Europe, but building coalition to challenge US global interests. A stronger Russia emboldens them.

iv. But If Russia is US's problem as well as Europe’s, then China is Europe’s problem as well as US's. Europe must integrate economics & security re Beijing . /4

i. Europe’s security is a compelling US economic interest. It is America’s biggest trade partner and by far the leading destination for American investment;

ii. Europe must raise defence spending. Its GDP is only slightly smaller than America’s but it spends barely half as much on defence; /3

Trumpian America wants security and prosperity -- core interests of any country. Europe must seek alignments without the post-1945 glue of values, institutions and law.

Four stand out: /2